FC Fredericia v Hobro prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:08

FC Fredericia 3–0 Hobro FC FREDERICIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Fredericia win~~56%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.298

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.182

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Fredericia win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Fredericia 56% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–25–20
1′KICK-OFF FC Fredericia v Hobro
11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' E. Simonsen · FC Fredericia
13′FC Fredericia ahead on 12′ through E. Simonsen. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–6
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' FC Fredericia 1–0 Hobro · E. Simonsen
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' FC Fredericia win: 56% at kick-off, 80% now
14′We said FC Fredericia at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–14–6
15′🟨 YELLOW · 14' M. Jacobsen · Hobro
15′🟨 YELLOW · 13' M. Pedersen · Hobro
16′A. Bondergaard scores for FC Fredericia on 15′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
16′We said FC Fredericia at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' FC Fredericia 2–0 Hobro · A. Bondergaard (penalty)
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' FC Fredericia win: 56% at kick-off, 94% now
26′We said FC Fredericia at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' FC Fredericia win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
45′44′: E. Simonsen on the scoresheet for FC Fredericia, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′⚽ GOAL · 44' FC Fredericia 3–0 Hobro · E. Simonsen
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' A. Noshe · Hobro
45′HALF-TIME FC Fredericia 3–0 Hobro
46′SECOND HALF FC Fredericia 3–0 Hobro
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Fredericia · On: C. Jorgensen · Off: S. Crone Corrected
49′We said FC Fredericia at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Fredericia · On: C. Jorgensen · Off: B. Bang-Kittilsen
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Hobro · On: A. Breum · Off: T. Hansen
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Hobro · On: M. Londal · Off: A. Noshe
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Hobro · On: O. Meedom · Off: M. Huldahl
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' FC Fredericia · On: A. Dahl · Off: D. Haarbo Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' FC Fredericia · On: A. Pyndt · Off: E. Simonsen
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC Fredericia · On: A. Dahl · Off: W. Madsen
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' FC Fredericia · On: P. Egelund · Off: A. Bondergaard
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Hobro · On: O. Obasi · Off: R. Hauge
90′3–0 at the end. Our 56% on FC Fredericia comes in. 3–0 · 100–0–0
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' A. Nygaard · FC Fredericia
FTFULL TIME FC Fredericia 3–0 Hobro
FTFC Fredericia 3–0 Hobro · FC Fredericia win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Fredericia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Fredericia 56%, draw 25%, Hobro 20%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on FC Fredericia v HobroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FC Fredericia win56%

Draw25%

Hobro win20%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueMonjasa Park

RefereeF. Iriskic

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Fredericia

Hobro

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the Danish 1. Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	FC Fredericia	10	+8	17
7	Hobro	10	−4	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc fredericia winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

56% The market65%

Us56%

~~Market~~65%

We make FC Fredericia a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Fredericia v Hobro~~1.75 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 14~~3 v 7

~~The market · FC Fredericia win~~65% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Fredericia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Fredericia win	56%	65%	−9
Draw	25%	20%	+5
Hobro win	20%	15%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	50%	60%	−10
Both teams to score	50%	55%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	75%	81%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	28%	39%	−11
FC Fredericia or draw	80%	85%	−5
FC Fredericia clean sheet	39%	–	–
Hobro clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.7 5.8 3.1 1 11.3 11.7 5.2 2 10.3 9.6 4.5 3 6.0 5.6 2.6 4 2.7 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Fredericia down, Hobro across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,023 1. Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Fredericia at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Hobro away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for FC Fredericia, 0.94 for Hobro. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HOB 1–4 FCF · FCF 1–1 HOB · FCF 0–1 HOB · HOB 1–2 FCF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 21 Aug

FC FREDERICIA

DLWDDW0–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–0

HOBRO

WLLDLD2–1 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 2–5 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hvidovre	10	+10	24
2	Vejle	11	+9	22
3	FC Fredericia	10	+8	17
4	AB Copenhagen	11	+4	15
5	Aalborg	11	−1	14
6	Aarhus Fremad	11	−1	14
7	Hobro	10	−4	14
8	Kolding IF	11	−1	12
9	HB Koge	11	−5	10
10	Vendsyssel FF	11	−7	10
11	Hillerød	10	−3	9
12	Esbjerg	11	−9	7