Home › Football › 1. Division › AB Copenhagen v Aarhus Fremad

AB Copenhagen v Aarhus Fremad

AB Copenhagen

2–0Full time

Aarhus Fremad

1. Division · FRI 9 OCT · Gladsaxe Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30

AB Copenhagen 2–0 Aarhus Fremad AB COPENHAGEN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AB Copenhagen win~~36%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.614

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.465

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AB Copenhagen win at 36%.
30′S. Diop scores for AB Copenhagen on 21′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 67–22–11
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' AB Copenhagen win: 36% at kick-off, 67% now
34′We said AB Copenhagen at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–22–10
36′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 68–22–10
37′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 68–22–10
38′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 69–22–9
39′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 69–22–9
40′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 69–22–9
41′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 69–22–9
42′We said AB Copenhagen at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–22–9
43′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 70–22–8
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' C. Grening · AB Copenhagen
45′HALF-TIME AB Copenhagen 1–0 Aarhus Fremad
45′⚽ GOAL · 21' AB Copenhagen 1–0 Aarhus Fremad · S. Diop
45′🟨 YELLOW · 26' M. Kirchheiner · Aarhus Fremad
45′🟨 YELLOW · 42' C. Grening · AB Copenhagen
46′SECOND HALF AB Copenhagen 1–0 Aarhus Fremad
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' S. Ilsoe · AB Copenhagen
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' AB Copenhagen 2–0 Aarhus Fremad · M. Rasmussen
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' AB Copenhagen · On: N. Engell · Off: M. Rasmussen
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' AB Copenhagen · On: J. Fernandes · Off: C. Grening
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Aarhus Fremad · On: Y. Abdullahi · Off: K. Lunding
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Aarhus Fremad · On: E. Egerton · Off: M. Kirchheiner
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' AB Copenhagen · On: T. Hageltorn · Off: O. Mullings
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Aarhus Fremad · On: J. Beluli · Off: S. Andreasen
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Aarhus Fremad · On: J. Ostergaard · Off: C. Nygaard
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Aarhus Fremad · On: J. Ostergaard · Off: C. Nygaard
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' AB Copenhagen · On: A. Horup · Off: M. Vesterholm
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Aarhus Fremad · On: M. de Claville · Off: F. Grube
FTAB Copenhagen 2–0 Aarhus Fremad · AB Copenhagen win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

AB Copenhagen win36%

Draw28%

Aarhus Fremad win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

Venue · Gladsaxe Stadium

Referee · S. Aagerup

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

AB Copenhagen

Formation not confirmed

54 A. Benediktsson

4 A. Koudelka

14 G. Noga

24 A. Liu

17 M. Stenner

15 S. Ilsoe

22 M. Vesterholm

88 O. Mullings

18 M. Rasmussen

11 C. Grening

29 S. Diop

Coach · Fannar Gunnolfsson

Substitutes

1 · M. Bobjerg

3 · T. Sousa

30 · A. Horup

21 · M. Clement

41 · T. Hageltorn

10 · M. Ramkilde

23 · T. Damtoft

77 · J. Fernandes

7 · N. Engell

Aarhus Fremad

Formation not confirmed

1 V. Hojbjerg

6 F. Grube

10 M. Kirchheiner

33 A. Ludwig

4 A. Pisani

15 C. Nygaard

11 K. Lunding

27 M. Kirchheiner

12 M. Ryberg

7 M. Kaastrup

9 S. Andreasen

Coach · Mathias Damgaard

Substitutes

13 · V. de Paoli

2 · M. Kjolby

28 · E. Egerton

20 · O. Hjaltason

14 · L. Ronnberg

70 · J. Beluli

21 · M. de Claville

22 · J. Ostergaard

18 · Y. Abdullahi

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

AB Copenhagen

Formation not confirmed

54 A. Benediktsson

4 A. Koudelka

14 G. Noga

24 A. Liu

17 M. Stenner

15 S. Ilsoe

22 M. Vesterholm

88 O. Mullings

18 M. Rasmussen

11 C. Grening

29 S. Diop

Coach · Fannar Gunnolfsson

Substitutes

1 · M. Bobjerg

3 · T. Sousa

30 · A. Horup

21 · M. Clement

41 · T. Hageltorn

10 · M. Ramkilde

23 · T. Damtoft

77 · J. Fernandes

7 · N. Engell

Aarhus Fremad

Formation not confirmed

1 V. Hojbjerg

6 F. Grube

10 M. Kirchheiner

33 A. Ludwig

4 A. Pisani

15 C. Nygaard

11 K. Lunding

27 M. Kirchheiner

12 M. Ryberg

7 M. Kaastrup

9 S. Andreasen

Coach · Mathias Damgaard

Substitutes

13 · V. de Paoli

2 · M. Kjolby

28 · E. Egerton

20 · O. Hjaltason

14 · L. Ronnberg

70 · J. Beluli

21 · M. de Claville

22 · J. Ostergaard

18 · Y. Abdullahi

Our number · ab copenhagen winPublished 9 Oct 18:04

36% The market44%

Us36%

~~Market~~44%

We make AB Copenhagen a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AB Copenhagen win	36%	44%	−8
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Aarhus Fremad win	36%	29%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	47%	56%	−10
Both teams to score	52%	59%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	72%	78%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	25%	35%	−10
AB Copenhagen or draw	64%	71%	−7
AB Copenhagen clean sheet	29%	–	–
Aarhus Fremad clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.8 9.4 6.3 2.7 1 9.4 13.1 7.9 3.4 2 6.4 7.9 5.0 2.1 3 2.8 3.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AB Copenhagen down, Aarhus Fremad across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,014 1. Division matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

AB Copenhagen at home: 1.25 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 4). Aarhus Fremad away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for AB Copenhagen, 1.27 for Aarhus Fremad. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 1. Division

AB COPENHAGEN

WDLLLW3–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 3–0

AARHUS FREMAD

DDDWDL1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hvidovre	9	+9	21
2	Vejle	9	+9	19
3	FC Fredericia	9	+6	14
4	Aarhus Fremad	9	+1	13
5	Aalborg	9	0	13
6	Hobro	9	−4	13
7	Vendsyssel FF	9	−4	10
8	AB Copenhagen	9	+1	9
9	Hillerød	9	−1	9
10	Kolding IF	9	−2	8
11	HB Koge	9	−6	7
12	Esbjerg	9	−9	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

AB Copenhagen

Aarhus Fremad

Match statistics

Line-ups

AB Copenhagen

Aarhus Fremad

Head to head

Form · last six in 1. Division

The table