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Aarhus Fremad v Esbjerg

Aarhus Fremad
0–0Full time
Esbjerg

1. Division · FRI 16 OCT · Riisvangen

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01
Aarhus Fremad 0–0 Esbjerg AARHUS FREMAD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Aarhus Fremad win48%
The market said41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.864
The market’s Brier score0.836

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 20 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Aarhus Fremad win at 48%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Aarhus Fremad was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–24–27
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Aarhus Fremad v Esbjerg
  4. 45′HALF-TIME Aarhus Fremad 0–0 Esbjerg
  5. 45′SECOND HALF Aarhus Fremad 0–0 Esbjerg
  6. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Aarhus Fremad win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
  7. 51′We said Aarhus Fremad at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–40–23
  8. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Aarhus Fremad win 36%)
  9. 55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 35–43–22
  10. 56′We said Aarhus Fremad at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–44–22
  11. 64′We said Aarhus Fremad at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
  12. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Aarhus Fremad win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
  13. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' G. Madsen · Esbjerg
  14. 71′We said Aarhus Fremad at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–16
  15. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Aarhus Fremad · On: S. Baekgard · Off: C. Nygaard
  16. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Aarhus Fremad · On: K. Lunding · Off: Y. Abdullahi
  17. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Esbjerg · On: P. Bjur · Off: M. Maden
  18. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Aarhus Fremad · On: M. de Claville · Off: M. Ryberg
  19. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Esbjerg · On: M. Hansen · Off: A. Ahmad
  20. 77′We said Aarhus Fremad at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–69–13
  21. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' M. Kirchheiner · Aarhus Fremad
  22. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' S. Andreasen · Aarhus Fremad
  23. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Aarhus Fremad win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
  24. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Aarhus Fremad · On: M. Kjolby · Off: M. Kirchheiner
  25. 81′We said Aarhus Fremad at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
  26. 86′We said Aarhus Fremad at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–86–6
  27. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Aarhus Fremad win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
  28. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Esbjerg · On: L. Vigen · Off: P. Tjornelund
  29. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Aarhus Fremad · On: J. Beluli · Off: S. Andreasen
  30. 91′We said Aarhus Fremad at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–3
  31. FTFULL TIME Aarhus Fremad 0–0 Esbjerg
  32. FTAarhus Fremad 0–0 Esbjerg · Aarhus Fremad win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aarhus Fremad are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aarhus Fremad 48%, draw 25%, Esbjerg 27%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Aarhus Fremad v EsbjergBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Aarhus Fremad win48%
Draw25%
Esbjerg win27%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueRiisvangen

RefereeM. Thomsen

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aarhus Fremad

Esbjerg

7Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · the Danish 1. Division

Last match: 10 Oct · the Danish 1. Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Aarhus Fremad10−113
12Esbjerg10−96

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aarhus fremad winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
48% The market41%
Us48%
Market41%

We make Aarhus Fremad a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Aarhus Fremad v Esbjerg1.69 – 1.21
Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 21 AugW1 D3 L2 · W0 D2 L4
Table places · points 13 v 66 v 12
The market · Aarhus Fremad win41% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 10 OCT 03:5516 OCT 17:37
Our probability · Aarhus Fremad win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Aarhus Fremad win48%41%+7
Draw25%25%0
Esbjerg win27%34%−7
Over 2.5 goals55%60%−5
Both teams to score57%63%−6
Over 1.5 goals79%81%−2
Over 3.5 goals33%39%−6
Aarhus Fremad or draw73%66%+7
Aarhus Fremad clean sheet30%––
Esbjerg clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%
0123450 6.3 6.1 4.1 1 8.7 11.7 6.7 2.7 2 7.8 9.3 5.6 2.3 3 4.4 5.3 3.2 4 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Aarhus Fremad down, Esbjerg across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.70
Over 2.54 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsAAR 0–1 ESB · ESB 1–1 AAR · AAR 2–0 ESB · ESB 0–1 AAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 21 Aug

AARHUS FREMAD

DDWDLL0–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 0–2

ESBJERG

LLLDLD2–4 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 3–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Hvidovre10+1024
2Vejle10+819
3FC Fredericia10+817
4Aalborg10014
5Hobro10−414
6Aarhus Fremad10−113
7AB Copenhagen10+312
8HB Koge10−410
9Vendsyssel FF10−610
10Kolding IF10−29
11Hillerød10−39
12Esbjerg10−96

The competition's standings before kick-off.