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Aarhus Fremad v Esbjerg
Aarhus Fremad
Esbjerg1. Division · FRI 16 OCT · Riisvangen
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Aarhus Fremad win at 48%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Aarhus Fremad was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–24–27
- 1′KICK-OFF Aarhus Fremad v Esbjerg
- 45′HALF-TIME Aarhus Fremad 0–0 Esbjerg
- 45′SECOND HALF Aarhus Fremad 0–0 Esbjerg
- 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Aarhus Fremad win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
- 51′We said Aarhus Fremad at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–40–23
- 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Aarhus Fremad win 36%)
- 55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 35–43–22
- 56′We said Aarhus Fremad at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–44–22
- 64′We said Aarhus Fremad at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
- 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Aarhus Fremad win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
- 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' G. Madsen · Esbjerg
- 71′We said Aarhus Fremad at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–16
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Aarhus Fremad · On: S. Baekgard · Off: C. Nygaard
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Aarhus Fremad · On: K. Lunding · Off: Y. Abdullahi
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Esbjerg · On: P. Bjur · Off: M. Maden
- 74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Aarhus Fremad · On: M. de Claville · Off: M. Ryberg
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Esbjerg · On: M. Hansen · Off: A. Ahmad
- 77′We said Aarhus Fremad at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–69–13
- 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' M. Kirchheiner · Aarhus Fremad
- 78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' S. Andreasen · Aarhus Fremad
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Aarhus Fremad win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Aarhus Fremad · On: M. Kjolby · Off: M. Kirchheiner
- 81′We said Aarhus Fremad at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
- 86′We said Aarhus Fremad at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–86–6
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Aarhus Fremad win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Esbjerg · On: L. Vigen · Off: P. Tjornelund
- 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Aarhus Fremad · On: J. Beluli · Off: S. Andreasen
- 91′We said Aarhus Fremad at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–3
- FTFULL TIME Aarhus Fremad 0–0 Esbjerg
- FTAarhus Fremad 0–0 Esbjerg · Aarhus Fremad win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassAarhus Fremad are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Aarhus Fremad 48%, draw 25%, Esbjerg 27%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
Aarhus Fremad win48%
Esbjerg win27%Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00
RoundMatchday 11
VenueRiisvangen
RefereeM. Thomsen
Match timeline
All events
Aarhus FremadMIN
EsbjergEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Aarhus Fremad
Esbjerg
Last match: 9 Oct · the Danish 1. Division
Last match: 10 Oct · the Danish 1. Division
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Aarhus Fremad a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus Fremad win | 48% | 41% | +7 |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 0 |
| Esbjerg win | 27% | 34% | −7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 60% | −5 |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 63% | −6 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 81% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 39% | −6 |
| Aarhus Fremad or draw | 73% | 66% | +7 |
| Aarhus Fremad clean sheet | 30% | – | – |
| Esbjerg clean sheet | 19% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 21 Aug
AARHUS FREMAD
ESBJERG
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hvidovre | 10 | +10 | 24 |
| 2 | Vejle | 10 | +8 | 19 |
| 3 | FC Fredericia | 10 | +8 | 17 |
| 4 | Aalborg | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 5 | Hobro | 10 | −4 | 14 |
| 6 | Aarhus Fremad | 10 | −1 | 13 |
| 7 | AB Copenhagen | 10 | +3 | 12 |
| 8 | HB Koge | 10 | −4 | 10 |
| 9 | Vendsyssel FF | 10 | −6 | 10 |
| 10 | Kolding IF | 10 | −2 | 9 |
| 11 | Hillerød | 10 | −3 | 9 |
| 12 | Esbjerg | 10 | −9 | 6 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Hvidovre
Vejle
FC Fredericia
Aalborg
Hobro
AB Copenhagen
HB Koge
Vendsyssel FF
Kolding IF
Hillerød