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Model 1.2

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Aalborg v Vejle

Aalborg
0–1Full time
Vejle

1. Division · SAT 17 OCT · Aalborg Portland Park

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35
Aalborg 0–1 Vejle VEJLE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Vejle win45%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.465
The market’s Brier score0.473

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 20 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Vejle win at 45%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Vejle 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 32–23–44
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Aalborg v Vejle
  4. 17′M. Duelund scores for Vejle on 17′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–18–69
  5. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Aalborg 0–1 Vejle · M. Duelund
  6. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Vejle win: 45% at kick-off, 69% now
  7. 18′We said Vejle at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 0–1 · 14–18–69
  8. 24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' P. Sondergaard · Aalborg
  9. 31′We said Vejle at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 12–19–70
  10. 31′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 12–19–70
  11. 36′SUBSTITUTION · 36' Aalborg · On: A. Hapnes · Off: M. Tielemans
  12. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' C. Sorensen · Vejle
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Aalborg 0–1 Vejle
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Aalborg 0–1 Vejle
  15. 54′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Aalborg · On: F. Borsting · Off: T. Persyn
  16. 59′We said Vejle at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
  17. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Vejle win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
  18. 71′We said Vejle at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  19. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Vejle · On: G. Marcussen · Off: W. Faghir
  20. 79′We said Vejle at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 0–1 · 1–13–86
  21. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Vejle win: 45% at kick-off, 86% now
  22. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Aalborg · On: W. Thomsen · Off: K. Normann
  23. 83′We said Vejle at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
  24. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Aalborg · On: K. John · Off: M. Kubel
  25. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Vejle · On: M. Vestergaard · Off: T. Gundelund
  26. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Aalborg · On: N. A. Arnorsson · Off: E. Makolli
  27. 89′We said Vejle at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
  28. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Vejle win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
  29. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' N. A. Arnorsson · Aalborg
  30. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Vejle · On: M. Jensen · Off: L. From
  31. FTFULL TIME Aalborg 0–1 Vejle
  32. FTAalborg 0–1 Vejle · Vejle win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vejle are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aalborg 32%, draw 23%, Vejle 45%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Aalborg v VejleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Aalborg win32%
Draw23%
Vejle win45%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueAalborg Portland Park

RefereeP. Gammelholm

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aalborg

Vejle

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · the Danish 1. Division

Last match: 9 Oct · the Danish 1. Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Vejle10+819
5Aalborg10014

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vejle winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
45% The market44%
Us45%
Market44%

We make Vejle a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Aalborg v Vejle1.55 – 1.86
Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 21 AugW1 D4 L1 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 14 v 195 v 2
The market · Vejle win44% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 11:39
Our probability · Vejle win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Aalborg win32%31%+1
Draw23%26%−3
Vejle win45%44%+1
Over 2.5 goals66%62%+4
Both teams to score66%64%+2
Over 1.5 goals85%82%+3
Over 3.5 goals44%41%+3
Aalborg or draw55%56%−1
Aalborg clean sheet16%––
Vejle clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%
0123450 4.1 5.7 5.7 3.6 1 4.7 10.0 8.6 5.3 2.5 2 4.0 7.3 6.6 4.1 3 2.1 3.8 3.5 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Aalborg down, Vejle across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.33
Over 2.52 of 6
Both scored3 of 6
Last meetingsAAL 0–1 VEJ · VEJ 1–1 AAL · AAL 3–3 VEJ · VEJ 2–2 AAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 21 Aug

AALBORG

LDWDDD1–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 3–3

VEJLE

WDWDDL4–2 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Hvidovre10+1024
2Vejle10+819
3FC Fredericia10+817
4AB Copenhagen11+415
5Aalborg10014
6Aarhus Fremad11−114
7Hobro10−414
8Kolding IF11−112
9HB Koge11−510
10Vendsyssel FF11−710
11Hillerød10−39
12Esbjerg11−97

The competition's standings before kick-off.