Aalborg v Hobro prediction · 1. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AalborgDrawHobro

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Aalborg 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aalborg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aalborg 48%, draw 25%, Hobro 27%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Aalborg v HobroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Aalborg win48%

Draw25%

Hobro win27%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueAalborg Portland Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aalborg

Hobro

6Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the Danish 1. Division

Last match: 23 Oct · the Danish 1. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Hobro	12	−7	15
7	Aalborg	12	−2	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aalborg winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

48% The market53%

Us48%

~~Market~~53%

We make Aalborg a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aalborg v Hobro~~1.67 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 15~~7 v 6

~~The market · Aalborg win~~53% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Aalborg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aalborg win	48%	53%	−5
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Hobro win	27%	23%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	55%	57%	−2
Both teams to score	57%	58%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	78%	0
Over 3.5 goals	33%	36%	−3
Aalborg or draw	73%	77%	−4
Aalborg clean sheet	30%	–	–
Hobro clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.3 6.3 4.1 1 8.9 11.8 6.7 2.7 2 7.9 9.3 5.6 2.3 3 4.4 5.2 3.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aalborg down, Hobro across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,032 1. Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.2% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.56 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aalborg at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Hobro away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Aalborg, 1.20 for Hobro. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.56

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~7 of 9

~~Last meetings~~HOB 2–1 AAL · AAL 1–1 HOB · HOB 0–1 AAL · HOB 1–0 AAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 4 Sept

AALBORG

WDDDLL2–0 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 0–1 · 1–2

HOBRO

LDLDLD1–3 · 0–0 · 2–5 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hvidovre	12	+11	28
2	Vejle	12	+9	23
3	FC Fredericia	12	+10	20
4	AB Copenhagen	12	+5	18
5	Aarhus Fremad	12	−1	15
6	Hobro	12	−7	15
7	Aalborg	12	−2	14
8	Kolding IF	12	−2	12
9	Hillerød	12	−3	12
10	HB Koge	12	−5	11
11	Vendsyssel FF	12	−7	11
12	Esbjerg	12	−8	10