Vlašim v Ústí nad Labem prediction · FNL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VlašimDrawÚstí nad Labem

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Vlašim 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vlašim are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vlašim 51%, draw 23%, Ústí nad Labem 27%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Vlašim v Ústí nad LabemBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Vlašim win51%

Draw23%

Ústí nad Labem win27%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueStadion v Kollarove ulici

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vlašim

Ústí nad Labem

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · FNL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Ústí nad Labem	12	+4	19
5	Vlašim	12	+4	18

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vlašim winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Vlašim a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vlašim v Ústí nad Labem~~1.81 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in FNL this season · since 4 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 18 v 19~~5 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vlašim win	51%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Ústí nad Labem win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Vlašim or draw	73%	–	–
Vlašim clean sheet	29%	–	–
Ústí nad Labem clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.8 6.0 3.7 1 8.7 10.5 6.6 2.7 2 7.7 9.5 5.9 2.4 3 4.7 5.7 3.5 4 2.1 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vlašim down, Ústí nad Labem across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,295 FNL matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.1% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vlašim at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ústí nad Labem away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Vlašim, 1.24 for Ústí nad Labem. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~VLA 7–2 UST · UST 4–1 VLA · VLA 3–0 UST · UST 2–1 VLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FNL this season · since 4 Sept

VLAŠIM

WLWWWL2–1 · 1–3 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–2

ÚSTÍ NAD LABEM

DLWLDL1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karviná	12	+13	27
2	Vysočina Jihlava	12	+9	23
3	Dukla Praha	12	+3	21
4	Ústí nad Labem	12	+4	19
5	Vlašim	12	+4	18
6	Příbram	12	+2	18
7	Baník Ostrava II	12	+3	15
8	Táborsko	12	0	15
9	Kladno	12	−1	14
10	Opava	12	−3	14
11	Viktoria Žižkov	12	−8	14
12	Slavia Praha II	11	+1	13
13	Arsenal Česká Lípa	12	−6	13
14	Třinec	12	−7	11
15	Prostějov	11	−1	10
16	Hanácká	12	−13	9