Vlašim v Hanácká prediction · FNL

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 18:31

Vlašim 1–0 Hanácká VLAŠIM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Vlašim win~~60%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.236

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.258

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vlašim win at 60%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Vlašim 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–22–18
1′KICK-OFF Vlašim v Hanácká
9′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Vlašim
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Hanácká
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Hanácká
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Vlašim win: 60% at kick-off, 50% now
41′We said Vlašim at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 48%. 0–0 · 48–33–18
45′HALF-TIME Vlašim 0–0 Hanácká
46′SECOND HALF Vlašim 0–0 Hanácká
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vlašim · On: D. Soukenik · Off: D. Mane
50′We said Vlašim at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–38–18
51′A goal for Vlašim on 51′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–14–3
51′We said Vlašim at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–14–3
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Vlašim 1–0 Hanácká
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Vlašim win: 60% at kick-off, 83% now
52′L. Musil scores for Vlašim on 50′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–14–3
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Hanácká
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Hanácká · On: D. Kriz · Off: D. Polak
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Hanácká · On: L. Kubr · Off: J. Dockal
63′We said Vlašim at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Vlašim
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Hanácká · On: F. Zak · Off: M. Kudela
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Hanácká · On: L. Holik · Off: D. Hais
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Vlašim · On: S. Pikolon · Off: J. Hodek
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Vlašim · On: R. Teterja · Off: J. Dufek
77′We said Vlašim at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Vlašim win: 60% at kick-off, 90% now
85′We said Vlašim at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Hanácká · On: P. Zavadil · Off: T. Celustka
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Vlašim · On: D. Hajek · Off: L. Musil
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Vlašim · On: M. Kone · Off: B. Djordjic
FTFULL TIME Vlašim 1–0 Hanácká
FTVlašim 1–0 Hanácká · Vlašim win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vlašim are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vlašim 60%, draw 21%, Hanácká 19%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Vlašim v HanáckáBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Vlašim win60%

Draw21%

Hanácká win19%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadion v Kollarove ulici

RefereeM. Kubecka

Line-ups

Vlašim

Hanácká

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vlašim

Hanácká

7Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · FNL

Last match: 10 Oct · FNL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Vlašim	10	+5	15
16	Hanácká	10	−13	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Vlašim

Formation not confirmed

5 J. Dufek

7 J. Zaviska

9 J. Hodek

10 L. Musil

12 P. Kurka

13 J. Hrubes

14 D. Mane

20 F. Riha

23 B. Djordjic

26 J. Kulhanek

29 D. Koran

Coach · David Strihavka

Substitutes

1 · F. Kotek

2 · M. Kone

4 · V. Jindra

6 · D. Soukenik

8 · D. Hajek

11 · S. Pikolon

16 · R. Teterja

21 · B. Ahmed

22 · J. Dub

27 · I. Kane

28 · M. Naskos

Hanácká

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Dostal

5 E. Otrisal

6 M. Kudela

8 D. Polak

13 D. Hais

17 J. Dockal

20 T. Korycan

33 M. Hlinka

37 P. Kulisek

44 Z. Riha

92 T. Celustka

Coach · Jindrich Tichai

Substitutes

3 · P. Zavadil

7 · F. Zak

9 · Z. Toman

19 · L. Holik

21 · R. Ovesny

23 · D. Moucka

43 · T. Vajner

77 · L. Kubr

80 · D. Kriz

Our number · vlašim winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

60% The market59%

Us60%

~~Market~~59%

We make Vlašim a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vlašim v Hanácká~~1.97 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in FNL this season · since 21 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 6~~6 v 16

~~The market · Vlašim win~~59% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vlašim win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vlašim win	60%	59%	+1
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Hanácká win	19%	19%	0
Over 2.5 goals	57%	63%	−6
Both teams to score	54%	61%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	79%	83%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	34%	44%	−10
Vlašim or draw	81%	81%	0
Vlašim clean sheet	37%	–	–
Hanácká clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.4%

0123450 5.1 5.3 2.5 1 10.4 9.9 5.0 2 10.1 9.8 4.8 3 6.6 6.5 3.2 4 3.3 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vlašim down, Hanácká across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,280 FNL matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.3% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vlašim at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Hanácká away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.97 goals for Vlašim, 0.99 for Hanácká. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~HAN 0–1 VLA · VLA 5–0 HAN · VLA 2–0 HAN · HAN 2–1 VLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FNL this season · since 21 Aug

VLAŠIM

DLWLWW2–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 4–1 · 2–0

HANÁCKÁ

LWDDLL1–4 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karviná	10	+8	21
2	Dukla Praha	10	+6	20
3	Ústí nad Labem	10	+6	18
4	Vysočina Jihlava	10	+5	17
5	Příbram	10	+3	17
6	Vlašim	10	+5	15
7	Slavia Praha II	10	+2	13
8	Kladno	10	0	13
9	Táborsko	10	0	13
10	Opava	10	−1	13
11	Viktoria Žižkov	10	−7	13
12	Baník Ostrava II	10	+2	11
13	Prostějov	10	−1	9
14	Arsenal Česká Lípa	10	−7	9
15	Třinec	10	−8	7
16	Hanácká	10	−13	6