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Ústí nad Labem v Opava

Ústí nad Labem

2–3Full time

Opava

FNL · FRI 9 OCT · Town Stadium Usti

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 19:31

Ústí nad Labem 2–3 Opava ÚSTÍ NAD LABEM WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ústí nad Labem win~~47%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.811

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.806

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ústí nad Labem win at 47%.
73′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ústí nad Labem · On: S. Osaghae · Off: D. Cerny
73′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ústí nad Labem · On: J. Bzura · Off: D. Richter
73′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ústí nad Labem · On: Y. Diarra · Off: F. Idumbo-Muzambo
73′🟨 YELLOW · 48' T. Kott · Ústí nad Labem
73′🟨 YELLOW · 49' B. Yameogo · Ústí nad Labem
73′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Opava · On: D. Owusu · Off: B. Lacik
73′🟨 YELLOW · 63' J. Peterka · Ústí nad Labem
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Ústí nad Labem · On: J. Simons · Off: P. Moulis
73′⚽ GOAL · 69' Ústí nad Labem 2–3 Opava · J. Bzura
73′⚽ GOAL · 71' Ústí nad Labem 2–3 Opava · Y. Diarra
73′SECOND HALF Ústí nad Labem 2–3 Opava
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Opava · On: N. Turanjanin · Off: F. Cejka
84′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Opava
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Opava · On: B. Sy · Off: P. Juritka
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Opava · On: D. Krch · Off: T. Mudry
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Ústí nad Labem
91′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Ústí nad Labem
FTFULL TIME Ústí nad Labem 2–3 Opava
FTÚstí nad Labem 2–3 Opava · Ústí nad Labem win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ústí nad Labem win47%

Draw25%

Opava win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Town Stadium Usti

Referee · A. Bohata

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Ústí nad Labem

Formation not confirmed

91 T. Holy

7 D. Richter

8 J. Peterka

9 F. Do Marcolino

10 D. Cerny

12 B. Yameogo

14 P. Moulis

19 P. Goj

22 T. Kott

23 F. Idumbo-Muzambo

3 D. Brezina

Coach · David Oulehla

Substitutes

1 · D. Nemec

4 · L. Mraz

6 · S. Osaghae

18 · Y. Diarra

21 · J. Bzura

28 · J. Simons

31 · M. Bartuska

61 · J. Ruzicka

95 · A. Rudenkyi

Opava

Formation not confirmed

31 J. Ciupa

7 F. Cejka

8 F. Stepanek

10 B. Lacik

14 M. Novak

20 R. Zalesak

22 M. Helesic

23 O. Lehoczki

26 T. Mudry

5 A. Aidara

77 P. Juritka

Coach · Ondrej Smetana

Substitutes

9 · D. Krch

11 · L. Branecky

21 · N. Turanjanin

25 · B. Sy

27 · D. Owusu

83 · S. Jovanoski

99 · A. Diao

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ústí nad Labem

Formation not confirmed

91 T. Holy

7 D. Richter

8 J. Peterka

9 F. Do Marcolino

10 D. Cerny

12 B. Yameogo

14 P. Moulis

19 P. Goj

22 T. Kott

23 F. Idumbo-Muzambo

3 D. Brezina

Coach · David Oulehla

Substitutes

1 · D. Nemec

4 · L. Mraz

6 · S. Osaghae

18 · Y. Diarra

21 · J. Bzura

28 · J. Simons

31 · M. Bartuska

61 · J. Ruzicka

95 · A. Rudenkyi

Opava

Formation not confirmed

31 J. Ciupa

7 F. Cejka

8 F. Stepanek

10 B. Lacik

14 M. Novak

20 R. Zalesak

22 M. Helesic

23 O. Lehoczki

26 T. Mudry

5 A. Aidara

77 P. Juritka

Coach · Ondrej Smetana

Substitutes

9 · D. Krch

11 · L. Branecky

21 · N. Turanjanin

25 · B. Sy

27 · D. Owusu

83 · S. Jovanoski

99 · A. Diao

Our number · ústí nad labem winPublished 9 Oct 17:06

47% The market46%

Us47%

~~Market~~46%

We make Ústí nad Labem a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ústí nad labem win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ústí nad Labem win	47%	46%	+1
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Opava win	28%	28%	0
Over 2.5 goals	49%	55%	−6
Both teams to score	52%	58%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	74%	77%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	27%	35%	−7
Ústí nad Labem or draw	72%	72%	0
Ústí nad Labem clean sheet	33%	–	–
Opava clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.2 8.0 4.4 1 11.0 11.9 6.6 2.5 2 8.4 9.2 5.1 3 4.3 4.7 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ústí nad Labem down, Opava across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,272 FNL matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

FNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ústí nad Labem at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Opava away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Ústí nad Labem, 1.11 for Opava. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~UST 2–1 OPA · OPA 3–3 UST · OPA 2–0 UST · UST 0–2 OPA

Form · last six in FNL

ÚSTÍ NAD LABEM

DWWDLW0–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0

OPAVA

LDDLDW0–3 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karviná	9	+7	18
2	Ústí nad Labem	9	+7	18
3	Dukla Praha	9	+5	17
4	Vysočina Jihlava	9	+5	16
5	Příbram	9	+1	14
6	Slavia Praha II	9	+4	13
7	Táborsko	9	+1	13
8	Vlašim	9	+3	12
9	Baník Ostrava II	9	+3	11
10	Kladno	9	−1	10
11	Opava	9	−2	10
12	Viktoria Žižkov	9	−8	10
13	Arsenal Česká Lípa	9	−6	9
14	Prostějov	9	−1	8
15	Třinec	9	−7	7
16	Hanácká	9	−11	6