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Ústí nad Labem v Karviná

Ústí nad Labem

1–3Full time

Karviná

FNL · FRI 23 OCT · Town Stadium Usti

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 19:31

Ústí nad Labem 1–3 Karviná ÚSTÍ NAD LABEM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ústí nad Labem win~~39%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.594

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.518

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ústí nad Labem win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ústí nad Labem was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–23–38
1′KICK-OFF Ústí nad Labem v Karviná
12′We said Ústí nad Labem at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–20–62
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Ústí nad Labem 0–1 Karviná
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Ústí nad Labem win: 39% at kick-off, 17% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Karviná win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Ústí nad Labem win 38%)
13′A goal for Karviná on 13′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–21–62
28′We said Ústí nad Labem at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 14–22–64
36′We said Ústí nad Labem at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–87
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Ústí nad Labem 0–2 Karviná
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Ústí nad Labem win: 39% at kick-off, 3% now
38′Karviná score on 37′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–88
45′HALF-TIME Ústí nad Labem 0–2 Karviná
45′SECOND HALF Ústí nad Labem 0–2 Karviná
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ústí nad Labem · On: F. Idumbo-Muzambo · Off: J. Bzura
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ústí nad Labem · On: B. Yameogo · Off: P. Goj
54′We said Ústí nad Labem at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–2 · 8–22–70
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Ústí nad Labem 1–2 Karviná
56′Ústí nad Labem find the net on 55′. 1–2. 1–2 · 8–22–71
58′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–6–93
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Ústí nad Labem 1–3 Karviná
59′A goal for Karviná on 59′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 1–6–93
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Ústí nad Labem
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Karviná · On: D. Samko · Off: S. Misek
67′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 4–20–76
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Ústí nad Labem 2–3 Karviná
68′GOAL DISALLOWED · 68' Ústí nad Labem
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Ústí nad Labem · On: D. Richter · Off: S. Osaghae
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Ústí nad Labem · On: D. Cerny · Off: Y. Diarra
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Ústí nad Labem
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Ústí nad Labem
84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Ústí nad Labem · On: A. Fantis · Off: O. Ullman
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Karviná · On: J. Bello · Off: J. Selnar
91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Karviná · On: J. Pira · Off: A. Kronus
FTFULL TIME Ústí nad Labem 1–3 Karviná
FTÚstí nad Labem 1–3 Karviná · Ústí nad Labem win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Ústí nad Labem just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Ústí nad Labem 39%, draw 23%, Karviná 38%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Ústí nad Labem v KarvináBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Ústí nad Labem win39%

Draw23%

Karviná win38%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueTown Stadium Usti

RefereeJ. Benes

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ústí nad Labem

Karviná

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · FNL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karviná	11	+11	24
4	Ústí nad Labem	11	+6	19

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ústí nad labem winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

39% The market33%

Us39%

~~Market~~33%

We make Ústí nad Labem a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ústí nad Labem v Karviná~~1.57 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in FNL this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 24~~4 v 1

~~The market · Ústí nad Labem win~~33% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ústí nad Labem win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ústí nad Labem win	39%	33%	+6
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Karviná win	38%	41%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	60%	57%	+3
Both teams to score	62%	60%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	79%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	38%	36%	+2
Ústí nad Labem or draw	62%	59%	+3
Ústí nad Labem clean sheet	22%	–	–
Karviná clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.3 7.0 5.3 2.7 1 7.2 10.5 8.2 4.2 2 5.5 8.4 6.4 3.3 3 2.9 4.4 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ústí nad Labem down, Karviná across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,288 FNL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Ústí nad Labem at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Karviná away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Ústí nad Labem, 1.55 for Karviná. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FNL this season · since 29 Aug

ÚSTÍ NAD LABEM

WDLWLD1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 2–2

KARVINÁ

LWLWWW1–2 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karviná	11	+11	24
2	Vysočina Jihlava	11	+7	20
3	Dukla Praha	11	+3	20
4	Ústí nad Labem	11	+6	19
5	Vlašim	11	+6	18
6	Příbram	11	+2	17
7	Baník Ostrava II	11	+3	14
8	Táborsko	11	0	14
9	Viktoria Žižkov	11	−7	14
10	Slavia Praha II	11	+1	13
11	Kladno	11	−1	13
12	Opava	11	−3	13
13	Arsenal Česká Lípa	11	−6	12
14	Prostějov	11	−1	10
15	Třinec	11	−7	10
16	Hanácká	11	−14	6