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Táborsko v Třinec

Táborsko
1–1Full time
Třinec

FNL · FRI 23 OCT · Stadion Kvapilova

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 19:31
Táborsko 1–1 Třinec TÁBORSKO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Táborsko win56%
The market said57%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.949
The market’s Brier score0.939

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Táborsko win at 56%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Táborsko 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–23–21
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Táborsko v Třinec
  4. 19′We said Táborsko at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–15–6
  5. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Táborsko 1–0 Třinec
  6. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Táborsko win: 56% at kick-off, 79% now
  7. 20′Táborsko find the net on 19′. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–6
  8. 27′We said Táborsko at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–6
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 80–15–5
  10. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Třinec
  11. 45′SECOND HALF Táborsko 1–0 Třinec
  12. 46′HALF-TIME Táborsko 1–0 Třinec
  13. 47′We said Táborsko at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 1–1 · 42–39–19
  14. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Táborsko 1–1 Třinec
  15. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Táborsko win: 56% at kick-off, 42% now
  16. 49′A goal for Třinec on 48′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 41–40–19
  17. 53′We said Táborsko at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–43–18
  18. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Táborsko win 41%)
  19. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Třinec
  20. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Táborsko win: 56% at kick-off, 36% now
  21. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Táborsko · On: J. Splichal · Off: L. Hruska
  22. 61′We said Táborsko at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–49–16
  23. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Táborsko
  24. 68′We said Táborsko at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–57–14
  25. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Třinec · On: M. Vlachovsky · Off: M. Cerny
  26. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Táborsko · On: A. Yuzvak · Off: P. Heppner
  27. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Táborsko win: 56% at kick-off, 26% now
  28. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Táborsko · On: J. Barac · Off: M. Rezac
  29. 74′We said Táborsko at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–65–12
  30. 78′We said Táborsko at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–72–10
  31. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Táborsko win: 56% at kick-off, 16% now
  32. 82′We said Táborsko at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–80–7
  33. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Třinec · On: M. Obuch · Off: M. Samiec
  34. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Táborsko · On: M. Miska · Off: A. Toula
  35. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Táborsko · On: J. Zeronik · Off: J. Rezek
  36. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Táborsko
  37. 86′We said Táborsko at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–5
  38. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Táborsko
  39. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Třinec
  40. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Táborsko win: 56% at kick-off, 6% now
  41. 92′We said Táborsko at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
  42. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Třinec · On: L. Zdrazil · Off: O. Machuca
  43. FTFULL TIME Táborsko 1–1 Třinec
  44. FTTáborsko 1–1 Třinec · Táborsko win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Táborsko are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Táborsko 56%, draw 23%, Třinec 21%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Táborsko v TřinecBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Táborsko win56%
Draw23%
Třinec win21%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion Kvapilova

RefereeJ. Wulkan

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Táborsko

Třinec

5Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · FNL

Last match: 16 Oct · FNL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Táborsko11014
15Třinec11−710

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · táborsko winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
56% The market57%
Us56%
Market57%

We make Táborsko a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Táborsko v Třinec1.75 – 0.96
Form · last six in FNL this season · since 29 AugW0 D3 L3 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 14 v 108 v 15
The market · Táborsko win57% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 16:40
Our probability · Táborsko win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Táborsko win56%57%−1
Draw23%24%−1
Třinec win21%19%+2
Over 2.5 goals51%55%−4
Both teams to score51%54%−3
Over 1.5 goals75%77%−2
Over 3.5 goals29%34%−5
Táborsko or draw79%81%−2
Táborsko clean sheet38%––
Třinec clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.8%
0123450 6.6 6.6 3.1 1 11.8 10.9 5.3 2 10.2 9.7 4.6 3 5.9 5.7 2.7 4 2.6 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Táborsko down, Třinec across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.25
Over 2.54 of 4
Both scored3 of 4
Last meetingsTRI 1–2 TAB · TAB 2–1 TRI · TRI 3–1 TAB · TAB 3–0 TRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FNL this season · since 29 Aug

TÁBORSKO

LDDLLD0–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 2–2

TŘINEC

LLWLLW1–4 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Karviná11+1124
2Vysočina Jihlava11+720
3Dukla Praha11+320
4Ústí nad Labem11+619
5Vlašim11+618
6Příbram11+217
7Baník Ostrava II11+314
8Táborsko11014
9Viktoria Žižkov11−714
10Slavia Praha II11+113
11Kladno11−113
12Opava11−313
13Arsenal Česká Lípa11−612
14Prostějov11−110
15Třinec11−710
16Hanácká11−146

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.