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Táborsko v Karviná

Táborsko

0–1Full time

Karviná

FNL · FRI 9 OCT · Stadion Kvapilova

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 19:31

Táborsko 0–1 Karviná TÁBORSKO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Táborsko win~~44%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.730

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.486

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Táborsko win at 44%.
73′🟨 YELLOW · 49' J. Splichal · Táborsko
73′🟨 YELLOW · 54' O. Conde · Karviná
73′⚽ GOAL · 65' Táborsko 0–1 Karviná · A. Kronus
73′🟨 YELLOW · 65' J. Katerinak · Táborsko
73′SECOND HALF Táborsko 0–1 Karviná
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Karviná · On: J. Bello · Off: J. Fleisman
84′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Táborsko · On: L. Hruska · Off: J. Splichal
84′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Táborsko · On: M. Miska · Off: M. Varacka
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Táborsko · On: A. Toula · Off: J. Katerinak
84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Táborsko · On: A. Yuzvak · Off: P. Heppner
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Karviná · On: M. Yahaya · Off: A. Kronus
FTFULL TIME Táborsko 0–1 Karviná
FTTáborsko 0–1 Karviná · Táborsko win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Táborsko win44%

Draw25%

Karviná win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Stadion Kvapilova

Referee · S. Volek

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Táborsko

Formation not confirmed

2 L. Havel

8 O. Blaha

10 P. Plachy

14 J. Splichal

15 M. Varacka

18 M. Pastornicky

19 P. Heppner

22 J. Katerinak

24 J. Rezek

27 M. Nikl

29 L. Matejka

Coach · Miloslav Brozek

Substitutes

11 · A. Toula

12 · J. Zeronik

13 · J. Barac

17 · M. Rezac

23 · A. Yuzvak

55 · J. Kerbach

56 · L. Hruska

70 · M. Miska

Karviná

Formation not confirmed

6 R. Breite

7 J. Selnar

8 A. Kronus

11 A. Cicovsky

18 S. Misek

19 N. Milic

21 A. Markovic

25 J. Fleisman

30 J. Lapes

31 O. Conde

32 S. Yakubu

Coach · Roman West

Substitutes

3 · Y. Lawali

5 · A. Kone

10 · D. Samko

14 · J. Hamza

17 · M. Yahaya

20 · S. Praleika

24 · J. Chytry

29 · J. Pira

34 · A. Vodicka

72 · J. Bello

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Táborsko

Formation not confirmed

2 L. Havel

8 O. Blaha

10 P. Plachy

14 J. Splichal

15 M. Varacka

18 M. Pastornicky

19 P. Heppner

22 J. Katerinak

24 J. Rezek

27 M. Nikl

29 L. Matejka

Coach · Miloslav Brozek

Substitutes

11 · A. Toula

12 · J. Zeronik

13 · J. Barac

17 · M. Rezac

23 · A. Yuzvak

55 · J. Kerbach

56 · L. Hruska

70 · M. Miska

Karviná

Formation not confirmed

6 R. Breite

7 J. Selnar

8 A. Kronus

11 A. Cicovsky

18 S. Misek

19 N. Milic

21 A. Markovic

25 J. Fleisman

30 J. Lapes

31 O. Conde

32 S. Yakubu

Coach · Roman West

Substitutes

3 · Y. Lawali

5 · A. Kone

10 · D. Samko

14 · J. Hamza

17 · M. Yahaya

20 · S. Praleika

24 · J. Chytry

29 · J. Pira

34 · A. Vodicka

72 · J. Bello

Our number · táborsko winPublished 9 Oct 17:06

44% The market30%

Us44%

~~Market~~30%

We make Táborsko a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · táborsko win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 29% to 30% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Táborsko win	44%	30%	+14
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Karviná win	31%	43%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	53%	53%	0
Both teams to score	56%	57%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	75%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	31%	−1
Táborsko or draw	69%	57%	+12
Táborsko clean sheet	29%	–	–
Karviná clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.2 7.8 4.8 2.0 1 9.6 11.7 7.3 3.1 2 7.3 9.0 5.6 2.4 3 3.7 4.6 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Táborsko down, Karviná across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,272 FNL matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

FNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Táborsko at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Karviná away: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Táborsko, 1.25 for Karviná. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TAB 2–3 KAR · KAR 0–1 TAB

Form · last six in FNL

TÁBORSKO

WWLDDL3–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–4

KARVINÁ

WWLWLW5–2 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karviná	9	+7	18
2	Ústí nad Labem	9	+7	18
3	Dukla Praha	9	+5	17
4	Vysočina Jihlava	9	+5	16
5	Příbram	9	+1	14
6	Slavia Praha II	9	+4	13
7	Táborsko	9	+1	13
8	Vlašim	9	+3	12
9	Baník Ostrava II	9	+3	11
10	Kladno	9	−1	10
11	Opava	9	−2	10
12	Viktoria Žižkov	9	−8	10
13	Arsenal Česká Lípa	9	−6	9
14	Prostějov	9	−1	8
15	Třinec	9	−7	7
16	Hanácká	9	−11	6