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Prostějov v Ústí nad Labem

Prostějov
2–2Full time
Ústí nad Labem

FNL · FRI 16 OCT · Stadion Za Mistnim nadrazim

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 19:31
Prostějov 2–2 Ústí nad Labem PROSTĚJOV WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Prostějov win38%
The market said30%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.855
The market’s Brier score0.824

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Prostějov win at 38%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Prostějov 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–37
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Prostějov v Ústí nad Labem
  4. 25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Ústí nad Labem
  5. 33′We said Prostějov at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–22–12
  6. 33′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 67–22–12
  7. 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Prostějov 1–0 Ústí nad Labem
  8. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Prostějov win: 38% at kick-off, 67% now
  9. 34′Prostějov score on 33′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–22–12
  10. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Prostějov win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Prostějov 1–0 Ústí nad Labem
  12. 45′SECOND HALF Prostějov 1–0 Ústí nad Labem
  13. 47′We said Prostějov at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–22–9
  14. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Ústí nad Labem
  15. 56′We said Prostějov at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–1
  16. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Prostějov 2–0 Ústí nad Labem
  17. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Prostějov win: 38% at kick-off, 93% now
  18. 57′Prostějov find the net on 57′. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  19. 58′Prostějov ahead on 56′ through J. Koudelka. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  20. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Ústí nad Labem · On: D. Cerny · Off: Y. Diarra
  21. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Ústí nad Labem · On: F. Idumbo-Muzambo · Off: P. Goj
  22. 61′We said Prostějov at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  23. 61′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 74–20–5
  24. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Prostějov 2–1 Ústí nad Labem
  25. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Prostějov win: 38% at kick-off, 74% now
  26. 62′We said Prostějov at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–20–5
  27. 64′A goal for Ústí nad Labem on 62′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 76–20–5
  28. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Prostějov win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
  29. 71′We said Prostějov at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 2–2 · 20–60–20
  30. 71′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 20–60–20
  31. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Prostějov 2–2 Ústí nad Labem
  32. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Prostějov win: 38% at kick-off, 20% now
  33. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Prostějov win 20%)
  34. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Prostějov · On: D. Alijagic · Off: M. Cernak
  35. 72′Ústí nad Labem score on 72′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 20–61–19
  36. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Prostějov · On: M. Halda · Off: J. Matousek
  37. 73′Ústí nad Labem score on 71′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 19–63–19
  38. 74′We said Prostějov at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 2–2 · 18–64–18
  39. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Prostějov win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
  40. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Ústí nad Labem · On: D. Richter · Off: S. Osaghae
  41. 79′We said Prostějov at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–73–14
  42. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Prostějov
  43. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Ústí nad Labem · On: T. Berelidze · Off: P. Moulis
  44. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Ústí nad Labem · On: L. Kodad · Off: J. Bzura
  45. 84′We said Prostějov at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 2–2 · 8–83–8
  46. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Prostějov · On: A. Binar · Off: J. Koudelka
  47. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Prostějov win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
  48. 90′We said Prostějov at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–91–4
  49. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Prostějov · On: D. Fiser · Off: S. Jalovicor
  50. 93′2–2 at the end. Our 38% on Prostějov misses, and the record keeps it. 2–2 · 0–100–0
  51. FTFULL TIME Prostějov 2–2 Ústí nad Labem
  52. FTProstějov 2–2 Ústí nad Labem · Prostějov win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Prostějov just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Prostějov 38%, draw 25%, Ústí nad Labem 37%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Prostějov v Ústí nad LabemBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Prostějov win38%
Draw25%
Ústí nad Labem win37%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadion Za Mistnim nadrazim

RefereeD. Lovetinsky

Line-ups

Prostějov

Ústí nad Labem

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Prostějov

Ústí nad Labem

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · FNL

Last match: 9 Oct · FNL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Ústí nad Labem10+618
13Prostějov10−19

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Prostějov

Formation not confirmed

3 L. Endl

6 S. Jalovicor

7 M. Polasek

9 J. Matousek

13 M. Sindelar

16 P. Volesky

21 J. Kadlec

23 M. Surzyn

27 P. Mikulec

32 M. Cernak

70 J. Koudelka

Coach · Bohuslav Pilny

Substitutes

1 · D. Kerl

5 · M. Kolarik

8 · D. Bauer

12 · M. Halda

15 · D. Kramar

17 · A. Binar

18 · M. Jaron

19 · D. Fiser

22 · M. Zapletal

29 · D. Alijagic

Ústí nad Labem

Formation not confirmed

3 D. Brezina

6 S. Osaghae

9 F. Do Marcolino

14 P. Moulis

15 O. Ullman

18 Y. Diarra

19 P. Goj

21 J. Bzura

28 J. Simons

77 A. Fantis

91 T. Holy

Coach · David Oulehla

Substitutes

1 · D. Nemec

7 · D. Richter

10 · D. Cerny

16 · L. Kodad

17 · T. Berelidze

23 · F. Idumbo-Muzambo

27 · N. Piralic

Our number · prostějov winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
38% The market30%
Us38%
Market30%

We make Prostějov a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Prostějov v Ústí nad Labem1.44 – 1.43
Form · last six in FNL this season · since 21 AugW1 D4 L1 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 9 v 1813 v 3
The market · Prostějov win30% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40% 10 OCT 03:5516 OCT 16:25
Our probability · Prostějov win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Prostějov win38%30%+8
Draw25%26%−1
Ústí nad Labem win37%44%−7
Over 2.5 goals55%56%−1
Both teams to score57%60%−3
Over 1.5 goals78%78%0
Over 3.5 goals32%35%−3
Prostějov or draw63%56%+7
Prostějov clean sheet24%––
Ústí nad Labem clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%
0123450 5.6 8.3 5.8 2.8 1 8.4 11.4 8.3 3.9 2 5.9 8.3 5.9 2.8 3 2.9 4.0 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Prostějov down, Ústí nad Labem across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored3 of 4
Last meetingsPRO 2–1 UST · UST 1–2 PRO · PRO 0–2 UST · UST 1–1 PRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FNL this season · since 21 Aug

PROSTĚJOV

WLDDDD3–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–2

ÚSTÍ NAD LABEM

WWDLWL3–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Karviná10+821
2Dukla Praha10+620
3Ústí nad Labem10+618
4Vysočina Jihlava10+517
5Příbram10+317
6Vlašim10+515
7Slavia Praha II10+213
8Kladno10013
9Táborsko10013
10Opava10−113
11Viktoria Žižkov10−713
12Baník Ostrava II10+211
13Prostějov10−19
14Arsenal Česká Lípa10−79
15Třinec10−87
16Hanácká10−136

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.