Příbram v Třinec prediction · FNL

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 19:31

Příbram 2–3 Třinec PŘÍBRAM WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Příbram win~~53%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.940

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.041

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Příbram win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Příbram was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–25–22
1′KICK-OFF Příbram v Třinec
22′We published Příbram at 53%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–16–6
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Příbram 1–0 Třinec
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Příbram win: 53% at kick-off, 78% now
23′A goal for Příbram on 22′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–16–6
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 78–16–6
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Třinec
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Příbram 1–1 Třinec
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Příbram win: 53% at kick-off, 45% now
34′Třinec score on 33′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 45–34–21
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Příbram win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
44′We said Příbram at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 1–1 · 41–38–20
45′SECOND HALF Příbram 1–1 Třinec
47′HALF-TIME Příbram 1–1 Třinec
49′We said Příbram at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–41–20
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Příbram win 38%)
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Třinec
58′We said Příbram at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–48–18
58′We said Příbram at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–26–66
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Příbram 1–2 Třinec
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Příbram win: 53% at kick-off, 9% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Třinec win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 26%)
59′Třinec find the net on 59′. 1–2. 1–2 · 9–25–66
60′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 8–25–67
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Třinec · On: M. Samiec · Off: C. Agbo
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Příbram · On: D. Vott · Off: J. Tosnar
70′We said Příbram at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–74
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Příbram win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Třinec · On: M. Obuch · Off: O. Machuca
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Třinec · On: M. Vlachovsky · Off: T. Omasta
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Příbram · On: R. Faye · Off: J. Urbanec
84′We said Příbram at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 2–2 · 10–84–6
84′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 10–84–6
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Příbram · On: A. Pesek · Off: A. Conte
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Příbram 2–2 Třinec
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Příbram win: 53% at kick-off, 10% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Třinec win 6%)
85′A goal for Příbram on 85′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 9–86–5
86′D. Vott scores for Příbram on 84′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 8–87–5
91′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–4–96
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Příbram 2–3 Třinec
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Příbram win: 53% at kick-off, under 1% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Třinec win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
92′Třinec score on 90′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 0–3–96
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Třinec · On: M. Cerny · Off: L. Cienciala
94′Full time, 2–3. We called Příbram at 53% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Příbram 2–3 Třinec
FTPříbram 2–3 Třinec · Příbram win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Příbram are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Příbram 53%, draw 24%, Třinec 23%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Příbram v TřinecBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Příbram win53%

Draw24%

Třinec win23%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueUMT Pribram

RefereeT. Mankovecky

Line-ups

Příbram

Třinec

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Příbram

Třinec

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · FNL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Příbram	10	+3	17
15	Třinec	10	−8	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Příbram

Formation not confirmed

3 M. Pisko

8 T. Svoboda

11 J. Tosnar

16 P. Svestka

10 A. Conte

21 M. Melichar

23 T. Jedlicka

27 J. Urbanec

45 P. Nghabo

68 J. Malek

77 L. Fila

Coach · Jiri Kohout

Substitutes

5 · F. Zapotocny

6 · S. Kop

7 · D. Vott

17 · M. Vrana

18 · R. Faye

20 · D. Rousar

22 · M. Gergela

29 · A. Pesek

71 · D. Dolechek

Třinec

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Murin

2 D. Simersky

4 M. Helebrand

9 J. Bolf

12 N. Zinhasovic

14 M. Abdoulkarim

16 C. Agbo

21 O. Machuca

24 T. Omasta

26 L. Cienciala

33 E. Sehic

Coach · Tomas Jakus

Substitutes

7 · A. Nguyen

10 · M. Samiec

11 · L. Zdrazil

13 · V. Brak

15 · M. Vlachovsky

17 · M. Obuch

18 · L. Demitra

20 · M. Cerny

23 · O. Mrozek

27 · L. Dadak

Our number · příbram winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

53% The market58%

Us53%

~~Market~~58%

We make Příbram a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Příbram v Třinec~~1.66 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in FNL this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 17 v 7~~5 v 15

~~The market · Příbram win~~58% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Příbram win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Příbram win	53%	58%	−5
Draw	24%	23%	+1
Třinec win	23%	19%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	49%	57%	−8
Both teams to score	50%	56%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	74%	79%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	27%	37%	−10
Příbram or draw	77%	81%	−4
Příbram clean sheet	38%	–	–
Třinec clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.0%

0123450 7.1 7.2 3.5 1 12.0 11.4 5.7 2 9.8 9.5 4.7 3 5.4 5.3 2.6 4 2.3 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Příbram down, Třinec across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,280 FNL matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.3% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Příbram at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Třinec away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Příbram, 0.98 for Třinec. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TRI 2–1 PRI · PRI 3–1 TRI · TRI 4–1 PRI · PRI 0–1 TRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FNL this season · since 21 Aug

PŘÍBRAM

DWDLDW2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 3–1

TŘINEC

DLLWLL2–2 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karviná	10	+8	21
2	Dukla Praha	10	+6	20
3	Ústí nad Labem	10	+6	18
4	Vysočina Jihlava	10	+5	17
5	Příbram	10	+3	17
6	Vlašim	10	+5	15
7	Slavia Praha II	10	+2	13
8	Kladno	10	0	13
9	Táborsko	10	0	13
10	Opava	10	−1	13
11	Viktoria Žižkov	10	−7	13
12	Baník Ostrava II	10	+2	11
13	Prostějov	10	−1	9
14	Arsenal Česká Lípa	10	−7	9
15	Třinec	10	−8	7
16	Hanácká	10	−13	6