Opava v Vysočina Jihlava prediction · FNL

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 19:31

Opava 1–3 Vysočina Jihlava OPAVA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Opava win~~47%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.829

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.654

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Opava win at 47%.
1′KICK-OFF Opava v Vysočina Jihlava
2′Much as we predicted: Opava was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–26
7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Vysočina Jihlava
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Opava win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Opava
43′Opava find the net on 43′. 0–0 · 37–40–23
44′We published Opava at 47%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–5
44′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 77–18–5
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Opava win 36%)
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Opava 1–0 Vysočina Jihlava
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Opava win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Opava win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 18%)
45′HALF-TIME Opava 1–0 Vysočina Jihlava
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' O. Smetana · Opava
46′SECOND HALF Opava 1–0 Vysočina Jihlava
55′We published Opava at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Vysočina Jihlava · On: L. Moudry · Off: D. Matousek
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Vysočina Jihlava · On: M. Lacko · Off: R. Mokrovics
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Vysočina Jihlava · On: M. Krehlik · Off: B. Labaran Khalid
64′We said Opava at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–56–17
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Opava 1–1 Vysočina Jihlava
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Opava win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Opava win 27%)
65′Vysočina Jihlava find the net on 64′. 1–1. 1–1 · 26–57–17
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Opava win: 47% at kick-off, 26% now
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Vysočina Jihlava
68′We said Opava at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–60–16
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Opava · On: B. Sy · Off: B. Lacik
74′We said Opava at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–13
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Opava · On: D. Krch · Off: T. Mudry
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Opava win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
79′We said Opava at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–10
84′We said Opava at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–86–6
84′We said Opava at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 1–2 · 0–8–92
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Opava 1–2 Vysočina Jihlava
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Opava win: 47% at kick-off, under 1% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Vysočina Jihlava win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 8%)
85′A goal for Vysočina Jihlava on 84′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–7–92
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Opava · On: D. Owusu · Off: P. Juritka
86′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–7–93
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Opava
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Vysočina Jihlava
86′🟨 YELLOW · 80' R. Zalesak · Opava
90′Full time, 1–3. We called Opava at 47% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–3 · 0–0–100
91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Vysočina Jihlava · On: R. Krivanek · Off: O. Sambou
93′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Opava 1–3 Vysočina Jihlava
95′Vysočina Jihlava score on 90′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Opava 1–3 Vysočina Jihlava
FTOpava 1–3 Vysočina Jihlava · Opava win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Opava are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Opava 47%, draw 26%, Vysočina Jihlava 27%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Opava v Vysočina JihlavaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Opava win47%

Draw26%

Vysočina Jihlava win27%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSimply Arena

RefereeL. Habermann

Line-ups

Opava

Vysočina Jihlava

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Opava

Vysočina Jihlava

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · FNL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Vysočina Jihlava	10	+5	17
10	Opava	10	−1	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Opava

Formation not confirmed

7 F. Cejka

8 F. Stepanek

10 B. Lacik

14 M. Novak

20 R. Zalesak

21 N. Turanjanin

22 M. Helesic

23 O. Lehoczki

26 T. Mudry

31 J. Ciupa

77 P. Juritka

Coach · Ondrej Smetana

Substitutes

1 · M. Hulva

4 · J. Srubek

9 · D. Krch

11 · L. Branecky

25 · B. Sy

27 · D. Owusu

34 · S. Brzobohaty

83 · S. Jovanoski

99 · A. Diao

Vysočina Jihlava

Formation not confirmed

6 D. Stetka

8 D. Jambor

9 T. Omotoye

12 R. Mokrovics

17 B. Labaran Khalid

18 V. Strakl

21 M. Hosek

25 D. Matousek

27 A. Cermak

31 F. Slavata

46 O. Sambou

Coach · Marek Nikl

Substitutes

10 · L. Moudry

11 · R. Krivanek

19 · J. Haala

22 · M. Lacko

24 · M. Krehlik

33 · O. Mastny

40 · I. Alkasim

42 · M. Selicha

45 · M. Odekunle

66 · M. Sinanaj

70 · I. Usman

Our number · opava winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

47% The market39%

Us47%

~~Market~~39%

We make Opava a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Opava v Vysočina Jihlava~~1.41 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in FNL this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 17~~10 v 4

~~The market · Opava win~~39% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Opava win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Opava win	47%	39%	+8
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Vysočina Jihlava win	27%	34%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	43%	56%	−13
Both teams to score	47%	60%	−13
Over 1.5 goals	69%	78%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	22%	35%	−13
Opava or draw	73%	66%	+7
Opava clean sheet	37%	–	–
Vysočina Jihlava clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 8.9 9.1 4.4 1 13.0 12.4 6.2 2.1 2 9.0 8.9 4.4 3 4.3 4.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Opava down, Vysočina Jihlava across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,280 FNL matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.3% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Opava at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Vysočina Jihlava away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Opava, 0.99 for Vysočina Jihlava. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~OPA 3–1 VYS · VYS 0–0 OPA · OPA 0–0 VYS · VYS 2–0 OPA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FNL this season · since 21 Aug

OPAVA

DDLDWW2–2 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 3–2

VYSOČINA JIHLAVA

LLWWWD0–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karviná	10	+8	21
2	Dukla Praha	10	+6	20
3	Ústí nad Labem	10	+6	18
4	Vysočina Jihlava	10	+5	17
5	Příbram	10	+3	17
6	Vlašim	10	+5	15
7	Slavia Praha II	10	+2	13
8	Kladno	10	0	13
9	Táborsko	10	0	13
10	Opava	10	−1	13
11	Viktoria Žižkov	10	−7	13
12	Baník Ostrava II	10	+2	11
13	Prostějov	10	−1	9
14	Arsenal Česká Lípa	10	−7	9
15	Třinec	10	−8	7
16	Hanácká	10	−13	6