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Model 1.2

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Opava v Baník Ostrava II

Opava
1–1Full time
Baník Ostrava II

FNL · FRI 23 OCT · Simply Arena

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 19:31
Opava 1–1 Baník Ostrava II OPAVA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Opava win44%
The market said43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.839
The market’s Brier score0.823

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Opava win at 44%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Opava 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Opava v Baník Ostrava II
  4. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Opava
  5. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Opava
  6. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Baník Ostrava II
  7. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Opava win 37%)
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Opava 0–0 Baník Ostrava II
  9. 45′SECOND HALF Opava 0–0 Baník Ostrava II
  10. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Opava win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
  11. 48′A goal for Opava on 47′. 0–0 · 34–42–25
  12. 48′We said Opava at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
  13. 48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Opava 1–0 Baník Ostrava II
  14. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Opava win: 44% at kick-off, 75% now
  15. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Opava win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 42%)
  16. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Opava
  17. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.6 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 35–40–25 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  18. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Opava
  19. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Baník Ostrava II · On: M. Bitta · Off: S. Drozd
  20. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Baník Ostrava II · On: E. Ogbu · Off: D. Latal
  21. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Opava
  22. 62′We said Opava at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  23. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Baník Ostrava II
  24. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Opava
  25. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Opava win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
  26. 73′We said Opava at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  27. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Opava · On: L. Branecky · Off: B. Lacik
  28. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Opava · On: D. Krch · Off: T. Mudry
  29. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Opava · On: A. Diao · Off: B. Sy
  30. 80′We said Opava at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–77–10
  31. 80′Baník Ostrava II score on 79′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 13–77–10
  32. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Opava 1–1 Baník Ostrava II
  33. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Opava win: 44% at kick-off, 13% now
  34. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Opava win 89%)
  35. 81′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–1 · 12–79–9
  36. 84′We said Opava at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–7
  37. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Opava
  38. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Baník Ostrava II
  39. 91′We said Opava at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
  40. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Opava win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
  41. FTFULL TIME Opava 1–1 Baník Ostrava II
  42. FTOpava 1–1 Baník Ostrava II · Opava win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Opava are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Opava 44%, draw 26%, Baník Ostrava II 30%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Opava v Baník Ostrava IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Opava win44%
Draw26%
Baník Ostrava II win30%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueSimply Arena

RefereeM. Pansky

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Opava

Baník Ostrava II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · FNL

Last match: 16 Oct · FNL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Baník Ostrava II11+314
12Opava11−313

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · opava winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 21 Oct 03:51 · locked at kick-off
44% The market43%
Us44%
Market43%

We make Opava a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Opava v Baník Ostrava II1.45 – 1.14
Form · last six in FNL this season · since 29 AugW2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 13 v 1412 v 7
The market · Opava win43% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 16:40
Our probability · Opava win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Opava win44%43%+1
Draw26%26%0
Baník Ostrava II win30%31%−1
Over 2.5 goals48%58%−10
Both teams to score51%61%−10
Over 1.5 goals73%79%−6
Over 3.5 goals26%37%−11
Opava or draw70%69%+1
Opava clean sheet32%––
Baník Ostrava II clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%
0123450 7.4 8.8 4.9 1 11.2 12.1 7.0 2.7 2 7.9 8.9 5.0 3 3.8 4.3 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Opava down, Baník Ostrava II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting0.75
Over 2.50 of 4
Both scored0 of 4
Last meetingsBAN 2–0 OPA · OPA 1–0 BAN · BAN 0–0 OPA · OPA 0–0 BAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FNL this season · since 29 Aug

OPAVA

DLDWWL3–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–3

BANÍK OSTRAVA II

WDWLLW4–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Karviná11+1124
2Vysočina Jihlava11+720
3Dukla Praha11+320
4Ústí nad Labem11+619
5Vlašim11+618
6Příbram11+217
7Baník Ostrava II11+314
8Táborsko11014
9Viktoria Žižkov11−714
10Slavia Praha II11+113
11Kladno11−113
12Opava11−313
13Arsenal Česká Lípa11−612
14Prostějov11−110
15Třinec11−710
16Hanácká11−146

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.