Karviná v Dukla Praha prediction · FNL

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 19:02

Karviná 3–0 Dukla Praha KARVINÁ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Karviná win~~49%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.399

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.385

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Karviná win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Karviná 49% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–29
1′KICK-OFF Karviná v Dukla Praha
10′SUBSTITUTION · 9' Karviná · On: J. Chytry · Off: A. Markovic
33′A goal for Karviná on 33′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–9
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Karviná 1–0 Dukla Praha
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Karviná win: 49% at kick-off, 73% now
34′We said Karviná at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–18–9
35′S. Misek scores for Karviná on 32′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–9
35′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 73–18–9
37′Karviná score on 37′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
37′We said Karviná at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Karviná 2–0 Dukla Praha
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Karviná win: 49% at kick-off, 91% now
45′HALF-TIME Karviná 2–0 Dukla Praha
46′SECOND HALF Karviná 2–0 Dukla Praha
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dukla Praha · On: S. Sebrle · Off: R. Mikus
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dukla Praha · On: P. Corr · Off: B. Diallo
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dukla Praha · On: D. Velasquez · Off: D. Zamazal
56′We said Karviná at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Dukla Praha · On: N. Cisse · Off: S. Hindi Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Karviná · On: J. Bello · Off: S. Misek
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Karviná · On: D. Samko · Off: J. Selnar
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Karviná win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
80′Karviná find the net on 79′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Karviná 3–0 Dukla Praha
81′We said Karviná at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Dukla Praha · On: J. Okebugwu · Off: O. Tessilimi
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Karviná · On: M. Yahaya · Off: O. Conde
FTFULL TIME Karviná 3–0 Dukla Praha
FTKarviná 3–0 Dukla Praha · Karviná win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Karviná are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Karviná 49%, draw 22%, Dukla Praha 29%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Karviná v Dukla PrahaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Karviná win49%

Draw22%

Dukla Praha win29%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueTown Stadium Karvina

RefereeK. Roucek

Line-ups

Karviná

Dukla Praha

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karviná

Dukla Praha

7Days since last match4

Last match: 9 Oct · FNL

Last match: 12 Oct · FNL

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karviná	10	+8	21
2	Dukla Praha	10	+6	20

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Karviná

Formation not confirmed

30 J. Lapes

21 A. Markovic

32 S. Yakubu

19 N. Milic

25 J. Fleisman

6 R. Breite

11 A. Cicovsky

31 O. Conde

18 S. Misek

7 J. Selnar

8 A. Kronus

Coach · Roman West

Substitutes

3 · Y. Lawali

5 · A. Kone

10 · D. Samko

14 · J. Hamza

17 · M. Yahaya

20 · S. Praleika

24 · J. Chytry

29 · J. Pira

34 · A. Vodicka

72 · J. Bello

93 · F. Konate

Dukla Praha

Formation not confirmed

59 H. Backovsky

37 M. Tomic

39 D. Kozma

55 M. Karamatic

15 M. Hanousek

20 J. Plsek

10 R. Mikus

21 S. Hindi

16 D. Zamazal

17 O. Tessilimi

11 B. Diallo

Coach · Pavel Sustr

Substitutes

5 · D. Velasquez

6 · O. Lilling

7 · T. Schanelec

14 · P. Corr

22 · S. Sebrle

23 · J. Svozil

25 · J. Okebugwu

27 · A. Franke

29 · N. Cisse

31 · A. Jagrik

Our number · karviná winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

49% The market49%

Us49%

~~Market~~49%

We make Karviná a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Karviná v Dukla Praha~~1.85 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in FNL this season · since 21 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 21 v 20~~1 v 2

~~The market · Karviná win~~49% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Karviná win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karviná win	49%	49%	0
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Dukla Praha win	29%	25%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	62%	58%	+4
Both teams to score	63%	59%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	83%	79%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	40%	37%	+3
Karviná or draw	71%	75%	−4
Karviná clean sheet	25%	–	–
Dukla Praha clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 3.9 5.7 3.8 1 7.5 9.9 6.9 3.2 2 6.8 9.2 6.3 2.9 3 4.2 5.7 3.9 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karviná down, Dukla Praha across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,280 FNL matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.3% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karviná at home: 2.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Dukla Praha away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Karviná, 1.38 for Dukla Praha. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~DUK 1–2 KAR · KAR 2–0 DUK · DUK 0–0 KAR · KAR 0–0 DUK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in FNL this season · since 21 Aug

KARVINÁ

WLWLWW3–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 1–0

DUKLA PRAHA

LWWWDW1–3 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karviná	10	+8	21
2	Dukla Praha	10	+6	20
3	Ústí nad Labem	10	+6	18
4	Vysočina Jihlava	10	+5	17
5	Příbram	10	+3	17
6	Vlašim	10	+5	15
7	Slavia Praha II	10	+2	13
8	Kladno	10	0	13
9	Táborsko	10	0	13
10	Opava	10	−1	13
11	Viktoria Žižkov	10	−7	13
12	Baník Ostrava II	10	+2	11
13	Prostějov	10	−1	9
14	Arsenal Česká Lípa	10	−7	9
15	Třinec	10	−8	7
16	Hanácká	10	−13	6