Dukla Praha v Baník Ostrava II prediction · FNL

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 18:49

Dukla Praha 3–2 Baník Ostrava II DUKLA PRAHA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dukla Praha win~~53%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.335

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.361

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dukla Praha win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Dukla Praha 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–23–24
1′KICK-OFF Dukla Praha v Baník Ostrava II
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Dukla Praha win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Dukla Praha win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Dukla Praha win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Dukla Praha win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Dukla Praha win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Dukla Praha 1–0 Baník Ostrava II
45′HALF-TIME Dukla Praha 1–0 Baník Ostrava II
46′SECOND HALF Dukla Praha 1–0 Baník Ostrava II
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dukla Praha · On: D. Zamazal · Off: D. Velasquez
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dukla Praha · On: A. Franke · Off: J. Svozil
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Dukla Praha 2–0 Baník Ostrava II
60′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Dukla Praha · On: J. Okebugwu · Off: S. Sebrle
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Baník Ostrava II · On: S. Drozd · Off: M. Temel
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Baník Ostrava II · On: D. Latal · Off: M. Bitta
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Baník Ostrava II · On: A. Fiala · Off: L. Dvoracek
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Dukla Praha · On: P. Corr · Off: B. Diallo
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Baník Ostrava II
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Baník Ostrava II
79′⚽ GOAL · 45' Dukla Praha 2–0 Baník Ostrava II · M. Tomic
79′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dukla Praha · On: A. Franke · Off: J. Svozil
79′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dukla Praha · On: D. Zamazal · Off: D. Velasquez
79′⚽ GOAL · 55' Dukla Praha 2–0 Baník Ostrava II · S. Hindi
79′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Dukla Praha · On: J. Okebugwu · Off: S. Sebrle
79′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Baník Ostrava II · On: S. Drozd · Off: M. Temel
79′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Baník Ostrava II · On: D. Latal · Off: M. Bitta
79′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Baník Ostrava II · On: A. Fiala · Off: L. Dvoracek
79′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Dukla Praha · On: P. Corr · Off: B. Diallo
79′🟨 YELLOW · 76' A. Fiala · Baník Ostrava II
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Dukla Praha
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Dukla Praha · On: N. Cisse · Off: S. Hindi
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Baník Ostrava II · On: F. Svrcek · Off: T. Sirotek
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Baník Ostrava II · On: F. Rajcan · Off: T. Frydl
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Dukla Praha 2–1 Baník Ostrava II
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Dukla Praha 3–1 Baník Ostrava II
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Dukla Praha 3–2 Baník Ostrava II
FTFULL TIME Dukla Praha 3–2 Baník Ostrava II
FTDukla Praha 3–2 Baník Ostrava II · Dukla Praha win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 16:02 · locked at kick-off

Dukla Praha win53%

Draw23%

Baník Ostrava II win25%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 16:00

VenueStadion Juliska

RefereeA. Mach

Line-ups

Dukla Praha

Baník Ostrava II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Dukla Praha

Baník Ostrava II

24Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Dukla Praha	9	+5	17
12	Baník Ostrava II	9	+3	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Dukla Praha

Formation not confirmed

5 D. Velasquez

10 R. Mikus

11 B. Diallo

15 M. Hanousek

20 J. Plsek

21 S. Hindi

22 S. Sebrle

23 J. Svozil

37 M. Tomic

39 D. Kozma

59 H. Backovsky

Coach · Pavel Sustr

Substitutes

31 · D. Basta

6 · O. Lilling

7 · T. Schanelec

14 · P. Corr

16 · D. Zamazal

17 · O. Tessilimi

19 · E. Rotundo

25 · J. Okebugwu

27 · A. Franke

29 · N. Cisse

55 · M. Karamatic

Baník Ostrava II

Formation not confirmed

4 P. Mekota

7 L. Dvoracek

8 T. Frydl

17 M. Bitta

18 M. Temel

21 T. Sirotek

24 P. Jaron

25 D. Rehacek

37 M. Ouly

38 S. Vlna

60 M. Hruby

Coach · Robert Pistek

Substitutes

9 · P. A. Thioro Diop

12 · A. Fiala

19 · F. Svrcek

22 · E. Ogbu

26 · D. Latal

28 · F. Rajcan

30 · M. Babka

40 · M. Kulyk

44 · S. Drozd

Our number · dukla praha winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

53% The market51%

Us53%

~~Market~~51%

We make Dukla Praha a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dukla praha win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dukla Praha win	53%	51%	+2
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Baník Ostrava II win	25%	23%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	58%	56%	+1
Both teams to score	58%	58%	0
Over 1.5 goals	80%	78%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	36%	36%	0
Dukla Praha or draw	75%	77%	−2
Dukla Praha clean sheet	31%	–	–
Baník Ostrava II clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.9 6.0 3.5 1 9.2 10.4 6.2 2.5 2 8.3 9.6 5.7 2.2 3 5.1 5.9 3.5 4 2.3 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dukla Praha down, Baník Ostrava II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,279 FNL matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

FNL matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.8% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Dukla Praha at home: 2.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Baník Ostrava II away: 2.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Dukla Praha, 1.18 for Baník Ostrava II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meeting of these two in FNL since 2021 in our records. Only this competition's matches are held here: cup ties and meetings in other leagues are not, and we say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in FNL

DUKLA PRAHA

LLWWWD1–3 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–2

BANÍK OSTRAVA II

WLWDWL4–1 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karviná	10	+8	21
2	Ústí nad Labem	10	+6	18
3	Dukla Praha	9	+5	17
4	Vysočina Jihlava	10	+5	17
5	Příbram	10	+3	17
6	Vlašim	10	+5	15
7	Slavia Praha II	10	+2	13
8	Kladno	10	0	13
9	Táborsko	10	0	13
10	Opava	10	−1	13
11	Viktoria Žižkov	10	−7	13
12	Baník Ostrava II	9	+3	11
13	Prostějov	10	−1	9
14	Arsenal Česká Lípa	10	−7	9
15	Třinec	10	−8	7
16	Hanácká	10	−13	6