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Zlin v Slavia Praha

Zlin

0–1Full time

Slavia Praha

Czech Liga · FRI 9 OCT · Stadion Letna

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 19:31

Zlin 0–1 Slavia Praha SLAVIA PRAHA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Slavia Praha win~~73%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.110

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.105

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Slavia Praha win at 73%.
72′🟨 YELLOW · 49' J. Stefan · Zlin
72′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Zlin · On: T. Poznar · Off: J. Stefan Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Slavia Praha · On: M. Chytil · Off: E. Ayaosi Corrected
72′SECOND HALF Zlin 0–1 Slavia Praha
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Zlin · On: S. Kanu · Off: D. Smiga Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Slavia Praha · On: M. Sadilek · Off: D. Moses Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Zlin · On: F. Appiah · Off: M. Pisoja Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Zlin · On: S. Petruta · Off: M. Kopecny Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Zlin · On: M. Cupak · Off: D. Machalik Corrected
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' T. Holes · Slavia Praha
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Slavia Praha · On: M. Konecny · Off: S. Isife Corrected
FTZlin 0–1 Slavia Praha · Slavia Praha win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Zlin win10%

Draw17%

Slavia Praha win73%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Stadion Letna

Referee · M. Radina

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Zlin

4-2-3-1

17 S. Dostal

35 O. Kukucka

24 J. Cernin

39 A. Krapka

22 M. Fukala

8 D. Machalik

19 C. Nombil

23 M. Kopecny

3 J. Stefan

82 M. Pisoja

9 D. Smiga

Coach · Pavel Hoftych

Substitutes

64 · S. Bachurek

31 · L. Bartosak

21 · D. Grygera

6 · J. Didiba

26 · M. Cupak

4 · T. Ulbrich

20 · F. Appiah

10 · S. Petruta

88 · T. Poznar

14 · S. Kanu

16 · P. Emmanuel

Slavia Praha

3-4-2-1

35 J. Markovic

3 T. Holes

4 D. Zima

27 T. Vlcek

14 S. Isife

16 D. Moses

30 W. Nowak

15 M. Suleiman

20 E. Ayaosi

17 L. Provod

25 T. Chory

Coach · Jindrich Trpisovsky

Substitutes

1 · O. Kolar

29 · N. Domchak

42 · M. Konecny

6 · A. N'Guessan

47 · D. Barcot

41 · M. Solarte

23 · M. Sadilek

22 · T. Diakite

13 · M. Chytil

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Zlin

4-2-3-1

17 S. Dostal

35 O. Kukucka

24 J. Cernin

39 A. Krapka

22 M. Fukala

8 D. Machalik

19 C. Nombil

23 M. Kopecny

3 J. Stefan

82 M. Pisoja

9 D. Smiga

Coach · Pavel Hoftych

Substitutes

64 · S. Bachurek

31 · L. Bartosak

21 · D. Grygera

6 · J. Didiba

26 · M. Cupak

4 · T. Ulbrich

20 · F. Appiah

10 · S. Petruta

88 · T. Poznar

14 · S. Kanu

16 · P. Emmanuel

Slavia Praha

3-4-2-1

35 J. Markovic

3 T. Holes

4 D. Zima

27 T. Vlcek

14 S. Isife

16 D. Moses

30 W. Nowak

15 M. Suleiman

20 E. Ayaosi

17 L. Provod

25 T. Chory

Coach · Jindrich Trpisovsky

Substitutes

1 · O. Kolar

29 · N. Domchak

42 · M. Konecny

6 · A. N'Guessan

47 · D. Barcot

41 · M. Solarte

23 · M. Sadilek

22 · T. Diakite

13 · M. Chytil

Our number · slavia praha winPublished 9 Oct 17:06

73% The market74%

Us73%

~~Market~~74%

We make Slavia Praha a 73% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.8–2.5.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zlin win	10%	9%	+1
Draw	17%	17%	0
Slavia Praha win	73%	74%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	64%	59%	+5
Both teams to score	51%	46%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	85%	80%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	43%	38%	+5
Zlin or draw	27%	26%	+1
Zlin clean sheet	9%	–	–
Slavia Praha clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.2%

0123450 4.2 8.6 11.2 9.3 5.9 3.11 2.6 7.8 9.0 7.4 4.7 2.42 3.1 3.7 3.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zlin down, Slavia Praha across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,471 Czech Liga matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Czech Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.7% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zlin at home: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Slavia Praha away: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.82 goals for Zlin, 2.52 for Slavia Praha. Most likely score 0–2.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 17:02. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ZLI 1–3 SLA · SLA 0–0 ZLI · ZLI 1–1 SLA · SLA 2–1 ZLI

Form · last six in Czech Liga

ZLIN

LLLLLD2–3 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–1

SLAVIA PRAHA

DDWWWW1–1 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	9	+19	23
2	Slovan Liberec	9	+9	20
3	Mlada Boleslav	8	+8	17
4	Sigma Olomouc	9	+3	16
5	Teplice	9	+2	16
6	Zbrojovka Brno	9	0	16
7	Sparta Praha	9	+6	15
8	FK Jablonec	9	+2	14
9	Hradec Králové	9	−1	14
10	Plzen	9	0	10
11	Baník Ostrava	9	−10	10
12	Bohemians 1905	8	−2	9
13	Pardubice	9	−5	8
14	Artis	9	−11	5
15	Slovácko	9	−9	4
16	Zlin	9	−11	1