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Zbrojovka Brno v FK Jablonec

Zbrojovka Brno

0–1Full time

FK Jablonec

Czech Liga · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Zbrojovka Brno 0–1 FK Jablonec FK JABLONEC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FK Jablonec win~~39%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.567

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.638

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FK Jablonec win at 39%.
2′Much as we predicted: FK Jablonec was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 34–27–39
2′KICK-OFF Zbrojovka Brno v FK Jablonec
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was FK Jablonec win 33%)
43′🟨 YELLOW · 44' A. Dante · Zbrojovka Brno
45′FK Jablonec have had 10.0 attempts to 5.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 28–40–32
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Zbrojovka Brno · On: L. Ezeh · Off: A. Soliu
45′SECOND HALF Zbrojovka Brno 0–0 FK Jablonec
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' FK Jablonec win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
58′We said FK Jablonec at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 24–48–27
63′We expected about 2.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 22–53–25
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Zbrojovka Brno · On: T. Vachousek · Off: D. Vasulin
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Zbrojovka Brno · On: S. Langer · Off: P. Cavos
67′We said FK Jablonec at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 0–0 · 20–57–22
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' S. Langer · Zbrojovka Brno
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' D. Holly · FK Jablonec
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FK Jablonec · On: A. Rusek · Off: D. Holly
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FK Jablonec · On: S. Alioum · Off: G. Kuol
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Zbrojovka Brno · On: M. Rymarenko · Off: A. Vanicek
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FK Jablonec · On: N. Okeke · Off: S. Nebyla
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Zbrojovka Brno 0–1 FK Jablonec · A. Rusek
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Zbrojovka Brno · On: F. Vedral · Off: J. Zmrhal
FTFULL TIME Zbrojovka Brno 0–1 FK Jablonec
FTZbrojovka Brno 0–1 FK Jablonec · FK Jablonec win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Zbrojovka Brno win34%

Draw27%

FK Jablonec win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Referee · D. Vokoun

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Zbrojovka Brno

3-4-3

1 A. Hrdina

39 J. Klima

38 J. Pokorny

3 Kaka

6 L. Penxa

8 P. Cavos

17 J. Zmrhal

44 A. Dante

10 A. Vanicek

15 D. Vasulin

79 A. Soliu

Coach · Martin Svedik

Substitutes

78 · O. Prodelal

18 · D. Granecny

26 · F. Vedral

4 · E. Hunal

68 · J. Janetzky

23 · P. Sevcik

11 · M. Rymarenko

7 · S. Langer

19 · B. Kanakimana

77 · L. Ezeh

14 · T. Vachousek

FK Jablonec

4-4-1-1

1 J. Hanus

18 M. Cedidla

4 N. Tekijaski

15 D. Pavlovic

23 E. Sobol

7 V. Chanturishvili

13 R. Sedlacek

25 S. Nebyla

36 G. Kuol

24 D. Holly

44 L. Jawo

Coach · Lubos Kozel

Substitutes

33 · M. Kukucka

57 · F. Novak

14 · D. Soucek

8 · F. Zorvan

21 · M. Polidar

6 · N. Okeke

16 · H. Ahl

19 · J. Chramosta

9 · A. Rusek

17 · S. Alioum

27 · F. Vecheta

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Zbrojovka Brno

3-4-3

1 A. Hrdina

39 J. Klima

38 J. Pokorny

3 Kaka

6 L. Penxa

8 P. Cavos

17 J. Zmrhal

44 A. Dante

10 A. Vanicek

15 D. Vasulin

79 A. Soliu

Coach · Martin Svedik

Substitutes

78 · O. Prodelal

18 · D. Granecny

26 · F. Vedral

4 · E. Hunal

68 · J. Janetzky

23 · P. Sevcik

11 · M. Rymarenko

7 · S. Langer

19 · B. Kanakimana

77 · L. Ezeh

14 · T. Vachousek

FK Jablonec

4-4-1-1

1 J. Hanus

18 M. Cedidla

4 N. Tekijaski

15 D. Pavlovic

23 E. Sobol

7 V. Chanturishvili

13 R. Sedlacek

25 S. Nebyla

36 G. Kuol

24 D. Holly

44 L. Jawo

Coach · Lubos Kozel

Substitutes

33 · M. Kukucka

57 · F. Novak

14 · D. Soucek

8 · F. Zorvan

21 · M. Polidar

6 · N. Okeke

16 · H. Ahl

19 · J. Chramosta

9 · A. Rusek

17 · S. Alioum

27 · F. Vecheta

Our number · fk jablonec winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

39% The market35%

Us39%

~~Market~~35%

We make FK Jablonec a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zbrojovka Brno win	34%	37%	−3
Draw	27%	28%	0
FK Jablonec win	39%	35%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	48%	50%	−2
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−3
Zbrojovka Brno or draw	61%	65%	−4
Zbrojovka Brno clean sheet	26%	–	–
FK Jablonec clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.3 9.3 6.8 3.1 1 8.5 12.9 8.2 3.8 2 5.8 7.7 5.1 2.3 3 2.5 3.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zbrojovka Brno down, FK Jablonec across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,472 Czech Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Czech Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.9% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zbrojovka Brno at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). FK Jablonec away: 0.67 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Zbrojovka Brno, 1.36 for FK Jablonec. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:10. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~FKJ 1–0 ZBR · ZBR 1–2 FKJ · FKJ 3–1 ZBR

Form · last six in Czech Liga

ZBROJOVKA BRNO

WWWLWL2–0 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 0–2

FK JABLONEC

LDLWLD0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	10	+20	26
2	Slovan Liberec	9	+9	20
3	Mlada Boleslav	8	+8	17
4	Sigma Olomouc	9	+3	16
5	Teplice	9	+2	16
6	Zbrojovka Brno	9	0	16
7	Sparta Praha	9	+6	15
8	FK Jablonec	9	+2	14
9	Hradec Králové	9	−1	14
10	Plzen	9	0	10
11	Baník Ostrava	9	−10	10
12	Bohemians 1905	8	−2	9
13	Pardubice	9	−5	8
14	Artis	9	−11	5
15	Slovácko	9	−9	4
16	Zlin	10	−12	1