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Zbrojovka Brno v Bohemians 1905

Zbrojovka Brno
2–2Full time
Bohemians 1905

Czech Liga · SAT 24 OCT · Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33
Zbrojovka Brno 2–2 Bohemians 1905 ZBROJOVKA BRNO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Zbrojovka Brno win39%
The market said41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.761
The market’s Brier score0.766

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 31 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Zbrojovka Brno win at 39%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Zbrojovka Brno 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–29–32
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Zbrojovka Brno v Bohemians 1905
  4. 2′We said Zbrojovka Brno at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–19–13
  5. 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Zbrojovka Brno 1–0 Bohemians 1905
  6. 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Zbrojovka Brno win: 39% at kick-off, 68% now
  7. 3′Zbrojovka Brno ahead on 2′ through Amadou Dante. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–19–13
  8. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Zbrojovka Brno win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
  9. 11′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Matěj Kadlec · Bohemians 1905
  10. 16′We said Zbrojovka Brno at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–11
  11. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 71–20–9
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Zbrojovka Brno 1–0 Bohemians 1905
  13. 48′We said Zbrojovka Brno at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
  14. 48′SECOND HALF Zbrojovka Brno 1–0 Bohemians 1905
  15. 49′48′: Aleš Čermák on the scoresheet for Bohemians 1905. 1–0 · 75–19–6
  16. 50′⚽ GOAL · 48' Zbrojovka Brno 1–1 Bohemians 1905 · Aleš Čermák
  17. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Zbrojovka Brno win: 39% at kick-off, 30% now
  18. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Zbrojovka Brno win 75%)
  19. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Zbrojovka Brno win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
  20. 56′We said Zbrojovka Brno at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–50–23
  21. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bohemians 1905 · On: Václav Pilař · Off: Jan Matoušek
  22. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bohemians 1905 · On: Jan Kovařík · Off: Matěj Kadlec
  23. 63′We said Zbrojovka Brno at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–56–20
  24. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Zbrojovka Brno · On: Jakub Janetzky · Off: Petr Ševčík
  25. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Zbrojovka Brno · On: Antonín Vaníček · Off: Martin Rymarenko
  26. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Bohemians 1905 · On: Ladislav Krobot · Off: Ladislav Almási
  27. 71′We said Zbrojovka Brno at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–65–16
  28. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Zbrojovka Brno win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
  29. 74′We said Zbrojovka Brno at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–1
  30. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Zbrojovka Brno 2–1 Bohemians 1905
  31. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Zbrojovka Brno win: 39% at kick-off, 85% now
  32. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Zbrojovka Brno win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 69%)
  33. 75′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 86–13–1
  34. 75′74′: Lukáš Penxa on the scoresheet for Zbrojovka Brno, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 86–13–1
  35. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Zbrojovka Brno · On: Lucky Ezeh · Off: Daniel Vasulin
  36. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Zbrojovka Brno win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
  37. 80′We said Zbrojovka Brno at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  38. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Bohemians 1905 · On: Samuel Obinaya · Off: Vojtech Smrz
  39. 83′Bohemians 1905 level it on 82′ through Roman Kvet. 2–2. 2–2 · 9–84–7
  40. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Zbrojovka Brno · On: Jaromír Zmrhal · Off: Tadeáš Vachoušek
  41. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Zbrojovka Brno · On: Patrik Cavos · Off: Štěpán Langer
  42. 83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Zbrojovka Brno 2–2 Bohemians 1905 · Roman Kvet
  43. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Zbrojovka Brno win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
  44. 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Zbrojovka Brno win 93%)
  45. 84′We said Zbrojovka Brno at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 2–2 · 8–86–7
  46. 84′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 8–86–7
  47. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Zbrojovka Brno win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
  48. 90′We said Zbrojovka Brno at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–93–3
  49. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Bohemians 1905 · On: David Heidenreich · Off: Aleš Čermák
  50. FTFULL TIME Zbrojovka Brno 2–2 Bohemians 1905
  51. FTZbrojovka Brno 2–2 Bohemians 1905 · Zbrojovka Brno win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zbrojovka Brno are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zbrojovka Brno 39%, draw 29%, Bohemians 1905 32%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Zbrojovka Brno v Bohemians 1905Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Zbrojovka Brno win39%
Draw29%
Bohemians 1905 win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueMestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska

Line-ups

Zbrojovka Brno

3-4-3

Bohemians 1905

3-4-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zbrojovka Brno

Bohemians 1905

6Days since last match10

Last match: 18 Oct · Czech Liga

Last match: 14 Oct · Czech Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Zbrojovka Brno11019
10Bohemians 190510015

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Zbrojovka Brno

3-4-3

1 A. Hrdina

39 J. Klíma

26 F. Vedral

38 J. Pokorný

6 Lukáš Penxa

23 P. Ševčík

7 Š. Langer

44 A. Danté

11 M. Rymarenko

15 D. Vašulín

14 T. Vachoušek

Coach · M. Svědík

Substitutes

8 · P. Čavoš

77 · L. Ezeh

4 · E. Hunál

68 · J. Janetzký

25 · T. Břečka

3 · Kauan Carneiro Kaka

19 · B. Kanakimana

78 · O. Prodelal

79 · S. Afolabi

10 · A. Vaníček

17 · J. Zmrhal

Bohemians 1905

3-4-1-2

23 T. Frühwald

24 M. Havel

27 D. Lischka

3 Matej Kadlec

32 P. Mirvald

47 A. Čermák

42 V. Smrž

37 D. Javorček

16 R. Květ

99 L. Almási

10 J. Matoušek

Coach · J. Veselý

Substitutes

70 · Simon Cerny

8 · D. Heidenreich

25 · P. Kareem

19 · J. Kovařík

9 · L. Krobot

62 · Samuel Obinaya

11 · V. Pilař

12 · M. Reichl

6 · B. Sakala

13 · V. Zeman

15 · M. Banda

Our number · zbrojovka brno winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off
39% The market41%
Us39%
Market41%

We make Zbrojovka Brno a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Zbrojovka Brno v Bohemians 19051.27 – 1.10
Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 2 SeptW3 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 19 v 155 v 10
The market · Zbrojovka Brno win41% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 13:31
Our probability · Zbrojovka Brno win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Zbrojovka Brno win39%41%−2
Draw29%29%0
Bohemians 1905 win32%31%+1
Over 2.5 goals42%50%−8
Both teams to score48%57%−9
Over 1.5 goals69%75%−6
Over 3.5 goals22%30%−8
Zbrojovka Brno or draw68%69%−1
Zbrojovka Brno clean sheet34%––
Bohemians 1905 clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%
0123450 10.3 9.7 5.7 2.1 1 11.2 13.4 7.0 2.6 2 7.5 8.1 4.4 3 3.2 3.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Zbrojovka Brno down, Bohemians 1905 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsBOH 1–1 ZBR · ZBR 1–2 BOH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 2 Sept

ZBROJOVKA BRNO

WLWLLW1–0 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–1

BOHEMIANS 1905

DLWLWW1–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Slavia Praha11+2027
2Sigma Olomouc11+420
3Slovan Liberec11+620
4Mlada Boleslav11+520
5Zbrojovka Brno11019
6Sparta Praha11+819
7Teplice11+117
8FK Jablonec11+217
9Plzen11+416
10Bohemians 190510015
11Hradec Králové11−315
12Pardubice11−411
13Baník Ostrava11−1111
14Artis10−98
15Slovácko11−87
16Zlin11−151

The competition's standings before kick-off.