Teplice v Sigma Olomouc prediction · Czech Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Teplice 1–1 Sigma Olomouc TEPLICE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Teplice win~~40%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.793

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.789

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Teplice win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Teplice 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–33
3′3′ and it is 0–1: A. Ghali on the scoresheet for Sigma Olomouc. 0–1 · 18–22–60
5′We said Teplice at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–22–60
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Sigma Olomouc win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Teplice win 18%)
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Teplice win: 40% at kick-off, 40% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Teplice win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Sigma Olomouc win 33%)
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Teplice win: 40% at kick-off, 18% now
7′3′ and it is 0–1: A. Ghali on the scoresheet for Sigma Olomouc. 0–1 · 18–22–61
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Teplice win: 40% at kick-off, 18% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Sigma Olomouc win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Teplice win 18%)
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Teplice win: 40% at kick-off, 40% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Teplice win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Sigma Olomouc win 33%)
10′We said Teplice at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–22–61
23′We said Teplice at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
24′We said Teplice at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 13–23–64
33′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 12–23–65
39′🟥 RED CARD · 40' L. Lurvink · Sigma Olomouc
40′Sigma Olomouc are down to ten from 40′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 11–23–66
40′🟥 RED CARD · 40' L. Lurvink · Sigma Olomouc
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Teplice win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Teplice win: 40% at kick-off, 11% now
42′Sigma Olomouc are down to ten from 40′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 10–23–67
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Teplice win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Teplice win: 40% at kick-off, 11% now
43′🟨 YELLOW · 44' T. Zlatohlavek · Teplice
45′We said Teplice at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
45′SECOND HALF Teplice 0–1 Sigma Olomouc
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sigma Olomouc · On: M. Hadas · Off: D. Tkac
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Teplice win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Sigma Olomouc win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Teplice win 10%)
55′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Teplice · On: M. Kozak · Off: T. Zlatohlavek
55′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Teplice · On: J. Svanda · Off: M. Bilek
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Teplice · On: D. Marecek · Off: M. Cermak
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Teplice · On: I. Hopi · Off: J. Auta
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Teplice 1–1 Sigma Olomouc · A. Ghali
69′⚽ GOAL · 70' Teplice 1–1 Sigma Olomouc
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sigma Olomouc · On: T. Huk · Off: A. Ghali
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sigma Olomouc · On: J. Kliment · Off: V. Sejk
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Teplice 1–2 Sigma Olomouc · I. Hopi
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Teplice · On: R. Jukl · Off: L. Marecek
FTFULL TIME Teplice 1–1 Sigma Olomouc
FTTeplice 1–1 Sigma Olomouc · Teplice win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Teplice win40%

Draw27%

Sigma Olomouc win33%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueAGC Arena Na Stinadlech

RefereeD. Cerny

Line-ups

Teplice

4-3-3

Sigma Olomouc

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Teplice

Sigma Olomouc

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Sigma Olomouc	9	+3	16
6	Teplice	9	+2	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Teplice

4-3-3

29 M. Trmal

6 M. Bilek

4 O. Vientiess

28 D. Vecerka

25 M. Riznic

8 J. Fortelny

23 L. Marecek

35 M. Radosta

17 J. Auta

33 T. Zlatohlavek

12 M. Cermak

Coach · Zdenko Frtala

Substitutes

31 · K. Lichtenberg

22 · L. Takacs

15 · J. Harustak

5 · J. Jakubko

14 · L. Krejci

19 · R. Jukl

3 · J. Svanda

37 · D. Marecek

11 · M. Kozak

7 · A. Badamosi

21 · I. Hopi

Sigma Olomouc

3-4-3

91 J. Koutny

2 A. Sylla

33 M. Maly

3 L. Lurvink

70 A. Ghali

14 M. Soldo

7 M. Beran

4 Leo Borges

39 D. Janosek

10 V. Sejk

24 D. Tkac

Coach · Pavel Hapal

Substitutes

98 · M. Hruska

16 · F. Slavicek

5 · T. Huk

22 · M. Hadas

8 · J. Spacil

9 · J. Kliment

11 · H. Mikaelsson

17 · J. Dembe

6 · J. Sip

Our number · teplice winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

40% The market36%

Us40%

~~Market~~36%

We make Teplice a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · teplice win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Teplice win	40%	36%	+4
Draw	27%	27%	0
Sigma Olomouc win	33%	37%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	48%	51%	−3
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	75%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	30%	−4
Teplice or draw	67%	63%	+4
Teplice clean sheet	29%	–	–
Sigma Olomouc clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.1 8.5 5.6 2.3 1 9.5 12.9 7.6 3.2 2 6.9 8.5 5.2 2.2 3 3.2 3.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Teplice down, Sigma Olomouc across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,476 Czech Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Czech Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.6% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 1.90 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Teplice at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sigma Olomouc away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Teplice, 1.24 for Sigma Olomouc. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 14:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TEP 1–3 SIG · SIG 0–0 TEP · TEP 1–0 SIG · SIG 2–1 TEP

Form · last six in Czech Liga

TEPLICE

LLWWLW1–4 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 2–0

SIGMA OLOMOUC

WWLWWL2–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	10	+20	26
2	Slovan Liberec	9	+9	20
3	Mlada Boleslav	9	+5	17
4	FK Jablonec	10	+3	17
5	Sigma Olomouc	9	+3	16
6	Teplice	9	+2	16
7	Zbrojovka Brno	10	−1	16
8	Sparta Praha	9	+6	15
9	Hradec Králové	10	−3	14
10	Plzen	10	+3	13
11	Bohemians 1905	9	−1	12
12	Baník Ostrava	10	−11	10
13	Pardubice	9	−5	8
14	Artis	10	−9	8
15	Slovácko	9	−9	4
16	Zlin	10	−12	1