Sparta Praha v Slovácko prediction · Czech Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sparta PrahaDrawSlovácko

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sparta Praha 70%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sparta Praha are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sparta Praha 70%, draw 19%, Slovácko 11%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Sparta Praha v SlováckoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sparta Praha win70%

Draw19%

Slovácko win11%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion Letná

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sparta Praha

Slovácko

3Days since last match7

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 18 Oct · Czech Liga

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Sparta Praha	11	+8	19
15	Slovácko	11	−8	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sparta praha winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

70% The market72%

Us70%

~~Market~~72%

We make Sparta Praha a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.3–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sparta Praha v Slovácko~~2.27 – 0.79

~~Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 7~~6 v 15

~~The market · Sparta Praha win~~72% · ours 70%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sparta Praha win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sparta Praha win	70%	72%	−2
Draw	19%	17%	+2
Slovácko win	11%	11%	0
Over 2.5 goals	59%	63%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	52%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	83%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	37%	42%	−5
Sparta Praha or draw	89%	89%	0
Sparta Praha clean sheet	45%	–	–
Slovácko clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.9%

0123450 5.3 3.3 1 10.2 8.9 3.4 2 11.9 9.4 3.7 3 9.0 7.0 2.8 4 5.2 4.0 5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Sparta Praha down, Slovácko across0–5 goals a side shown (96.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,491 Czech Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Czech Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sparta Praha at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Slovácko away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.27 goals for Sparta Praha, 0.79 for Slovácko. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SPA 5–2 SLO · SLO 0–0 SPA · SLO 0–2 SPA · SPA 2–2 SLO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 30 Aug

SPARTA PRAHA

LLWWWD0–3 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 0–0

SLOVÁCKO

DDLDWL1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	11	+20	27
2	Sigma Olomouc	12	+4	21
3	Slovan Liberec	11	+6	20
4	Mlada Boleslav	11	+5	20
5	Zbrojovka Brno	12	0	20
6	Sparta Praha	11	+8	19
7	Teplice	12	+1	18
8	FK Jablonec	11	+2	17
9	Plzen	11	+4	16
10	Bohemians 1905	11	0	16
11	Hradec Králové	11	−3	15
12	Pardubice	11	−4	11
13	Baník Ostrava	11	−11	11
14	Artis	11	−9	9
15	Slovácko	11	−8	7
16	Zlin	12	−15	2