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Sparta Praha v Pardubice

Sparta Praha

2–0Full time

Pardubice

Czech Liga · SUN 11 OCT · epet ARENA

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Sparta Praha 2–0 Pardubice SPARTA PRAHA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Sparta Praha win~~69%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.142

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.150

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sparta Praha win at 69%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sparta Praha was 69% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–18–12
2′Much as we predicted: Sparta Praha was 69% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–18–12
6′J. Mercado scores for Sparta Praha on 4′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 88–9–3
7′J. Mercado scores for Sparta Praha on 4′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 88–9–3
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Sparta Praha win: 69% at kick-off, 69% now
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Sparta Praha win: 69% at kick-off, 88% now
8′We published Sparta Praha at 69%. Our model now makes it 88%. 1–0 · 88–9–3
10′We published Sparta Praha at 69%. Our model now makes it 88%. 1–0 · 88–9–3
32′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 87–10–3
45′HALF-TIME Sparta Praha 1–0 Pardubice
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sparta Praha · On: M. Jurasek · Off: E. Singhateh
46′SECOND HALF Sparta Praha 1–0 Pardubice
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pardubice · On: R. Mahuta · Off: T. Boledovic
51′51′ and it is 2–0: J. Zeleny on the scoresheet for Sparta Praha. 2–0 · 98–2–0
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Sparta Praha 2–0 Pardubice · J. Zeleny (assist R. Macek)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Sparta Praha win: 69% at kick-off, 98% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Sparta Praha win: 69% at kick-off, 87% now
52′51′ and it is 2–0: J. Zeleny on the scoresheet for Sparta Praha. 2–0 · 98–2–0
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Sparta Praha win: 69% at kick-off, 98% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Sparta Praha win: 69% at kick-off, 87% now
55′We published Sparta Praha at 69%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
57′We published Sparta Praha at 69%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Pardubice · On: T. Jelinek · Off: M. Icha
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Pardubice · On: D. Smekal · Off: V. Samuel
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Sparta Praha win: 69% at kick-off, 99% now
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Sparta Praha win: 69% at kick-off, 98% now
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Sparta Praha win: 69% at kick-off, 99% now
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Sparta Praha win: 69% at kick-off, 98% now
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Sparta Praha win: 69% at kick-off, 99% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sparta Praha · On: S. Eneme · Off: H. Sochurek
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Sparta Praha win: 69% at kick-off, 98% now
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Sparta Praha win: 69% at kick-off, 98% now
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Sparta Praha win: 69% at kick-off, 99% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Sparta Praha win: 69% at kick-off, 98% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Sparta Praha win: 69% at kick-off, 99% now
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Sparta Praha win: 69% at kick-off, 99% now
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Pardubice · On: Kahuan Vinicius · Off: V. Drchal
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Sparta Praha · On: S. Mannsverk · Off: P. Vydra
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Sparta Praha · On: A. Sevinsky · Off: J. Zeleny
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' G. Botos · Pardubice
78′We published Sparta Praha at 69%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Sparta Praha · On: V. Vitalyos · Off: M. Suchomel
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Pardubice · On: M. Reil · Off: G. Botos
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Kahuan Vinicius · Pardubice
88′We published Sparta Praha at 69%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Sparta Praha 2–0 Pardubice
FTSparta Praha 2–0 Pardubice · Sparta Praha win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sparta Praha win69%

Draw19%

Pardubice win12%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Venueepet ARENA

RefereeJ. Benes

Line-ups

Sparta Praha

4-3-3

Pardubice

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sparta Praha

Pardubice

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Sparta Praha	9	+6	15
13	Pardubice	9	−5	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sparta Praha

4-3-3

44 J. Surovcik

25 K. Hoever

6 T. Guddal

30 J. Zeleny

2 M. Suchomel

38 H. Sochurek

28 R. Macek

26 P. Vydra

17 J. Mercado

14 J. Brunes

27 E. Singhateh

Coach · Brian Priske

Substitutes

47 · K. Hegyi

66 · S. Zajac

3 · P. Kaderabek

19 · A. Sevinsky

15 · V. Vitalyos

5 · S. Eneme

20 · S. Mannsverk

31 · M. Jurasek

18 · A. Irving

29 · M. Vojta

21 · J. Grimaldo

Pardubice

4-2-3-1

46 V. Neuman

15 E. Godwin

33 D. Halinsky

37 D. Krcik

40 T. Boledovic

19 M. Hlavaty

6 M. Icha

20 A. Tanko

90 G. Botos

35 V. Samuel

17 V. Drchal

Coach · Jan Trousil

Substitutes

1 · J. Serak

25 · R. Mahuta

12 · J. Tredl

43 · J. Noslin

77 · R. Saarma

16 · T. Jelinek

27 · M. Reil

11 · J. Zima

9 · D. Smekal

99 · Kahuan Vinicius

Our number · sparta praha winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

69% The market69%

Us69%

~~Market~~69%

We make Sparta Praha a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.3–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sparta praha win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 71% to 69% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sparta Praha win	69%	69%	+1
Draw	19%	19%	0
Pardubice win	12%	13%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	60%	60%	0
Both teams to score	50%	52%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	81%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	39%	−1
Sparta Praha or draw	88%	87%	+1
Sparta Praha clean sheet	44%	–	–
Pardubice clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.5%

0123450 5.1 3.4 1 9.8 8.8 3.5 2 11.5 9.4 3.9 3 8.8 7.1 2.9 4 5.1 4.1 5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Sparta Praha down, Pardubice across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,476 Czech Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Czech Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.6% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 4.50 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sparta Praha at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Pardubice away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.29 goals for Sparta Praha, 0.82 for Pardubice. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SPA 2–4 PAR · PAR 1–3 SPA · PAR 1–2 SPA · SPA 2–1 PAR

Form · last six in Czech Liga

SPARTA PRAHA

WWLLWW4–1 · 4–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–0

PARDUBICE

DLLDWW1–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	10	+20	26
2	Slovan Liberec	9	+9	20
3	Mlada Boleslav	9	+5	17
4	FK Jablonec	10	+3	17
5	Sigma Olomouc	9	+3	16
6	Teplice	9	+2	16
7	Zbrojovka Brno	10	−1	16
8	Sparta Praha	9	+6	15
9	Hradec Králové	10	−3	14
10	Plzen	10	+3	13
11	Bohemians 1905	9	−1	12
12	Baník Ostrava	10	−11	10
13	Pardubice	9	−5	8
14	Artis	10	−9	8
15	Slovácko	9	−9	4
16	Zlin	10	−12	1