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Slovan Liberec v Slovácko

Slovan Liberec

0–2Full time

Slovácko

Czech Liga · SUN 11 OCT · Stadion U Nisy

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Slovan Liberec 0–2 Slovácko SLOVAN LIBEREC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Slovan Liberec win~~57%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.071

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.142

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 39 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Slovan Liberec win at 57%.
1′Much as we predicted: Slovan Liberec was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–24–18
2′Much as we predicted: Slovan Liberec was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–25–18
13′We said Slovan Liberec at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–1 · 28–27–45
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Slovan Liberec win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Slovácko win 18%)
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Slovan Liberec win: 57% at kick-off, 28% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Slovácko win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Slovan Liberec win 28%)
15′14′ and it is 0–1: M. Havlik on the scoresheet for Slovácko. 0–1 · 27–27–46
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Slovan Liberec win: 57% at kick-off, 55% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Slovan Liberec win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Slovácko win 18%)
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Slovan Liberec win: 57% at kick-off, 28% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Slovácko win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Slovan Liberec win 28%)
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Slovan Liberec win: 57% at kick-off, 27% now
16′14′ and it is 0–1: M. Havlik on the scoresheet for Slovácko. 0–1 · 27–27–46
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Slovan Liberec win: 57% at kick-off, 28% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Slovan Liberec win: 57% at kick-off, 27% now
20′We said Slovan Liberec at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 0–1 · 25–28–47
22′We said Slovan Liberec at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–28–48
23′We said Slovan Liberec at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–28–48
25′🟨 YELLOW · 26' A. Stojcevski · Slovácko
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 21–28–50
32′We said Slovan Liberec at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–29–51
35′We said Slovan Liberec at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–29–52
36′We said Slovan Liberec at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–29–52
38′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 18–29–53
39′Slovan Liberec have had 8.0 attempts to 1.0 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 18–29–54
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' J. Behiratche · Slovácko
40′Slovan Liberec have had 8.0 attempts to 1.0 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 17–29–54
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Slovan Liberec win: 57% at kick-off, 17% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Slovan Liberec win: 57% at kick-off, 18% now
45′SECOND HALF Slovan Liberec 0–1 Slovácko
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Slovan Liberec · On: M. Mikulenka · Off: L. Masopust Corrected
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Slovan Liberec win: 57% at kick-off, 16% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Slovácko win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Slovan Liberec win 16%)
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Slovan Liberec 1–1 Slovácko · M. Havlik
56′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Slovácko · On: M. Svidersky · Off: L. Vorlicky Corrected
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Slovácko · On: M. Svidersky · Off: L. Vorlicky Corrected
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Slovácko · On: M. Svidersky · Off: L. Vorlicky Corrected
58′🟨 YELLOW · 59' D. Puskac · Slovácko
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Slovácko · On: M. Svidersky · Off: L. Vorlicky Corrected
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' D. Puskac · Slovácko
59′🟥 RED CARD · 59' Slovácko
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' L. Masek · Slovan Liberec
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Slovan Liberec · On: A. Basiladze · Off: A. Buzek Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Slovan Liberec · On: J. Ashuku · Off: J. Kozeluh Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Slovan Liberec · On: J. Ashuku · Off: J. Kozeluh Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Slovácko · On: P. Juroska · Off: P. Blahut Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Slovan Liberec · On: D. Rus · Off: V. Baboula Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Slovácko · On: G. Sosseh · Off: T. Kostadinov Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Slovácko · On: T. Kral · Off: G. Ndefe Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Slovan Liberec · On: V. Stransky · Off: A. Kayondo Corrected
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Slovan Liberec 0–2 Slovácko · M. Havlik
87′⚽ GOAL · 89' Slovan Liberec 0–2 Slovácko · P. Juroska (assist M. Heca)
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' T. Kostadinov · Slovácko
FTFULL TIME Slovan Liberec 0–2 Slovácko
FTSlovan Liberec 0–2 Slovácko · Slovan Liberec win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Slovan Liberec win57%

Draw25%

Slovácko win18%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

VenueStadion U Nisy

RefereeJ. Wulkan

Line-ups

Slovan Liberec

4-3-3

Slovácko

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Slovan Liberec

Slovácko

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Slovan Liberec	9	+9	20
15	Slovácko	9	−9	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Slovan Liberec

4-3-3

40 T. Koubek

18 J. Kozeluh

29 L. Hulka

26 J. Boril

27 A. Kayondo

60 F. Faye

8 L. Masopust

16 A. Buzek

94 V. Baboula

9 L. Masek

19 V. Kusej

Coach · Branislav Fodrek

Substitutes

33 · L. Pesl

3 · J. Mikula

5 · P. Hodous

24 · P. Dulay

12 · V. Stransky

15 · M. Lexa

77 · D. Rus

6 · A. Basiladze

17 · P. Julis

25 · M. Mikulenka

34 · J. Ashuku

Slovácko

3-4-2-1

29 M. Heca

21 S. Sloncik

22 J. Behiratche

4 A. Stojcevski

2 G. Ndefe

26 T. Kostadinov

10 M. Travnik

15 P. Blahut

20 M. Havlik

72 L. Vorlicky

30 D. Puskac

Coach · Jan Jelinek

Substitutes

34 · P. Halouska

19 · T. Kral

28 · L. Prior

27 · A. Dolznikov

16 · G. Sosseh

6 · M. Svidersky

77 · P. Juroska

9 · A. Marinelli

Our number · slovan liberec winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

57% The market62%

Us57%

~~Market~~62%

We make Slovan Liberec a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.8.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slovan Liberec win	57%	62%	−5
Draw	25%	23%	+3
Slovácko win	18%	16%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	45%	52%	−7
Both teams to score	45%	50%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	71%	76%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	24%	31%	−7
Slovan Liberec or draw	82%	84%	−2
Slovan Liberec clean sheet	45%	–	–
Slovácko clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.5%

0123450 9.1 6.3 2.8 1 13.5 11.8 4.5 2 11.6 9.3 3.8 3 6.5 5.2 2.1 4 2.8 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Slovan Liberec down, Slovácko across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,476 Czech Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Czech Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.6% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Slovan Liberec at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Slovácko away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Slovan Liberec, 0.81 for Slovácko. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 11:38. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SLO 2–1 SLO · SLO 0–3 SLO · SLO 0–4 SLO · SLO 4–0 SLO

Form · last six in Czech Liga

SLOVAN LIBEREC

DWWWWD1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–0

SLOVÁCKO

LLDDLD1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	10	+20	26
2	Slovan Liberec	9	+9	20
3	Mlada Boleslav	9	+5	17
4	FK Jablonec	10	+3	17
5	Sigma Olomouc	9	+3	16
6	Teplice	9	+2	16
7	Zbrojovka Brno	10	−1	16
8	Sparta Praha	9	+6	15
9	Hradec Králové	10	−3	14
10	Plzen	10	+3	13
11	Bohemians 1905	9	−1	12
12	Baník Ostrava	10	−11	10
13	Pardubice	9	−5	8
14	Artis	10	−9	8
15	Slovácko	9	−9	4
16	Zlin	10	−12	1