Slovan Liberec v Baník Ostrava prediction · Czech Liga

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Slovan Liberec are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Slovan Liberec 47%, draw 28%, Baník Ostrava 25%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Slovan Liberec v Baník OstravaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Slovan Liberec win47%

Draw28%

Baník Ostrava win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion u Nisy

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Slovan Liberec

Baník Ostrava

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Czech Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · Czech Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Slovan Liberec	11	+6	20
13	Baník Ostrava	11	−11	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · slovan liberec winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 03:55 · postponed, not graded

47% The market58%

Us47%

~~Market~~58%

We make Slovan Liberec a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Slovan Liberec v Baník Ostrava~~1.44 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 20 v 11~~3 v 13

~~The market · Slovan Liberec win~~58% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Slovan Liberec win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slovan Liberec win	47%	58%	−11
Draw	28%	24%	+4
Baník Ostrava win	25%	19%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	43%	53%	−10
Both teams to score	47%	53%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	70%	76%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	22%	33%	−11
Slovan Liberec or draw	75%	81%	−6
Slovan Liberec clean sheet	38%	–	–
Baník Ostrava clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.9 8.2 4.2 1 12.4 13.0 6.0 2 9.3 8.9 4.3 3 4.5 4.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Slovan Liberec down, Baník Ostrava across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,487 Czech Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Czech Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 87 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Slovan Liberec at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Baník Ostrava away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Slovan Liberec, 0.96 for Baník Ostrava. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SLO 1–0 BAN · BAN 0–2 SLO · SLO 0–1 BAN · BAN 2–0 SLO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 30 Aug

SLOVAN LIBEREC

WWWDLL2–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–1

BANÍK OSTRAVA

LLLDLD0–4 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	11	+20	27
2	Sigma Olomouc	11	+4	20
3	Slovan Liberec	11	+6	20
4	Mlada Boleslav	11	+5	20
5	Zbrojovka Brno	11	0	19
6	Sparta Praha	11	+8	19
7	Teplice	11	+1	17
8	FK Jablonec	11	+2	17
9	Plzen	11	+4	16
10	Bohemians 1905	10	0	15
11	Hradec Králové	11	−3	15
12	Pardubice	11	−4	11
13	Baník Ostrava	11	−11	11
14	Artis	10	−9	8
15	Slovácko	11	−8	7
16	Zlin	11	−15	1