Slovácko v Zbrojovka Brno prediction · Czech Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Slovácko 1–2 Zbrojovka Brno SLOVÁCKO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Slovácko win~~41%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.717

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.646

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Slovácko win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Slovácko was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–31
1′KICK-OFF Slovácko v Zbrojovka Brno
8′SUBSTITUTION · 7' Slovácko · On: Martin Svidersky · Off: Gigli Ndefe
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Slovácko win 34%)
41′We said Slovácko at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–23–66
41′40′: Daniel Vasulin on the scoresheet for Zbrojovka Brno, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–23–66
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Slovácko 0–1 Zbrojovka Brno
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Slovácko win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Zbrojovka Brno win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 23%)
42′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 10–23–67
45′We said Slovácko at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
45′HALF-TIME Slovácko 0–1 Zbrojovka Brno
46′SECOND HALF Slovácko 0–1 Zbrojovka Brno
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Jocelin Behiratche · Slovácko
64′We said Slovácko at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Slovácko · On: Jan Fiala · Off: Patrik Blahut
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Slovácko · On: Tomas Kral · Off: Pavel Juroska
68′13 shots for Slovácko, 8 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 3–19–78
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Zbrojovka Brno · On: Tadeáš Vachoušek · Off: Antonín Vaníček
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Zbrojovka Brno · On: Jakub Janetzky · Off: Daniel Vasulin
76′Zbrojovka Brno ahead on 75′ through Tadeáš Vachoušek. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Slovácko 0–2 Zbrojovka Brno
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Slovácko win: 41% at kick-off, under 1% now
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Zbrojovka Brno · On: Štěpán Langer · Off: Patrik Cavos
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Slovácko · On: Milan Rundić · Off: Andrej Stojchevski
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Slovácko · On: Alan Marinelli · Off: Lukas Vorlicky
83′Slovácko have had 16 attempts to 9 and it is still 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Zbrojovka Brno · On: Tomas Brecka · Off: Jaromír Zmrhal
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Zbrojovka Brno · On: Bienvenue Kanakimana · Off: Lucky Ezeh
94′90′: Jocelin Behiratche on the scoresheet for Slovácko. 0–2 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Slovácko 1–2 Zbrojovka Brno
FTFULL TIME Slovácko 1–2 Zbrojovka Brno
FTSlovácko 1–2 Zbrojovka Brno · Slovácko win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Slovácko are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Slovácko 41%, draw 28%, Zbrojovka Brno 31%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Slovácko v Zbrojovka BrnoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Slovácko win41%

Draw28%

Zbrojovka Brno win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueMestsky Fotbalovy Stadion

Line-ups

Slovácko

3-4-2-1

Zbrojovka Brno

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Slovácko

Zbrojovka Brno

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Czech Liga

Last match: 10 Oct · Czech Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Zbrojovka Brno	10	−1	16
15	Slovácko	10	−7	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Slovácko

3-4-2-1

29 M. Heča

21 Š. Slončík

22 J. Behiratche

4 A. Stojchevski

2 Gigli Ndefe

26 T. Kostadinov

10 M. Trávník

15 P. Blahút

77 P. Juroška

72 L. Vorlický

20 M. Havlík

Coach · J. Jelinek

Substitutes

3 · M. Rundić

27 · A. Dolžnikov

16 · G. Sosseh

18 · J. Fiala

34 · P. Halouska

17 · F. Hruska

6 · M. Šviderský

19 · Tomáš Král

9 · A. Marinelli

28 · L. Prior

Zbrojovka Brno

4-2-3-1

1 A. Hrdina

39 J. Klíma

26 F. Vedral

38 J. Pokorný

44 A. Danté

77 L. Ezeh

8 P. Čavoš

6 Lukáš Penxa

17 J. Zmrhal

10 A. Vaníček

15 D. Vašulín

Coach · M. Svědík

Substitutes

4 · E. Hunál

68 · J. Janetzký

3 · Kauan Carneiro Kaka

19 · B. Kanakimana

7 · Š. Langer

78 · O. Prodelal

11 · M. Rymarenko

23 · P. Ševčík

79 · S. Afolabi

14 · T. Vachoušek

25 · T. Břečka

Our number · slovácko winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market37%

Us41%

~~Market~~37%

We make Slovácko a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Slovácko v Zbrojovka Brno~~1.34 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 16~~15 v 8

~~The market · Slovácko win~~37% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Slovácko win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slovácko win	41%	37%	+4
Draw	28%	28%	0
Zbrojovka Brno win	31%	35%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	45%	49%	−4
Both teams to score	50%	54%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	71%	72%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	28%	−4
Slovácko or draw	69%	65%	+4
Slovácko clean sheet	33%	–	–
Zbrojovka Brno clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.2 9.0 5.5 2.1 1 10.7 13.1 7.1 2.8 2 7.5 8.3 4.7 3 3.4 3.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Slovácko down, Zbrojovka Brno across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,484 Czech Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Czech Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Slovácko at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Zbrojovka Brno away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Slovácko, 1.14 for Zbrojovka Brno. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 11:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SLO 1–0 ZBR · ZBR 2–2 SLO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 22 Aug

SLOVÁCKO

LDDLDW1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 2–0

ZBROJOVKA BRNO

WWLWLL3–2 · 1–0 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	11	+20	27
2	Sigma Olomouc	11	+4	20
3	Slovan Liberec	11	+6	20
4	Mlada Boleslav	11	+5	20
5	Sparta Praha	10	+8	18
6	Teplice	11	+1	17
7	FK Jablonec	10	+3	17
8	Zbrojovka Brno	10	−1	16
9	Bohemians 1905	10	0	15
10	Hradec Králové	11	−3	15
11	Plzen	10	+3	13
12	Pardubice	11	−4	11
13	Baník Ostrava	10	−11	10
14	Artis	10	−9	8
15	Slovácko	10	−7	7
16	Zlin	11	−15	1