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Slavia Praha v Mlada Boleslav

Slavia Praha
1–1Full time
Mlada Boleslav

Czech Liga · SAT 24 OCT · Sinobo Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48
Slavia Praha 1–1 Mlada Boleslav SLAVIA PRAHA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Slavia Praha win77%
The market said75%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.315
The market’s Brier score1.283

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 33 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Slavia Praha win at 77%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Slavia Praha 77% before kick-off, 76% now. 0–0 · 76–15–8
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Slavia Praha v Mlada Boleslav
  4. 16′We said Slavia Praha at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 48%. 0–1 · 48–24–28
  5. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Slavia Praha 0–1 Mlada Boleslav
  6. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Slavia Praha win: 77% at kick-off, 48% now
  7. 17′Martin Šubert scores for Mlada Boleslav on 15′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 48–24–28
  8. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Slavia Praha win: 77% at kick-off, 47% now
  9. 23′We said Slavia Praha at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–1 · 44–26–30
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 40–27–32
  11. 32′We said Slavia Praha at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–1 · 39–28–33
  12. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Slavia Praha win: 77% at kick-off, 37% now
  13. 39′We said Slavia Praha at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–29–36
  14. 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Mlada Boleslav win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Slavia Praha win 36%)
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Slavia Praha 0–1 Mlada Boleslav
  16. 46′We said Slavia Praha at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–31–40
  17. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Slavia Praha · On: David Moses · Off: Toumani Diakite
  18. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Slavia Praha · On: Mubarak Suleiman · Off: Samuel Isife
  19. 46′SECOND HALF Slavia Praha 0–1 Mlada Boleslav
  20. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+4' Slavia Praha win: 77% at kick-off, 27% now
  21. 51′We said Slavia Praha at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 57%. 1–1 · 57–33–11
  22. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Slavia Praha 1–1 Mlada Boleslav
  23. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Slavia Praha win: 77% at kick-off, 57% now
  24. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Slavia Praha win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Mlada Boleslav win 43%)
  25. 52′51′: Lukáš Provod on the scoresheet for Slavia Praha, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 56–33–11
  26. 53′GOAL DISALLOWED · 53' Slavia Praha
  27. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Slavia Praha win: 77% at kick-off, 24% now
  28. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Mlada Boleslav win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Slavia Praha win 56%)
  29. 62′14 shots for Slavia Praha, 9 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 17–31–52
  30. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Slavia Praha win: 77% at kick-off, 17% now
  31. 65′We said Slavia Praha at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–31–55
  32. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Mlada Boleslav · On: Lukas Letenay · Off: Jiří Klíma
  33. 66′18 shots for Slavia Praha, 9 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 13–30–56
  34. 68′Slavia Praha have had 21 attempts to 9 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 12–30–58
  35. 72′We said Slavia Praha at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–28–64
  36. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Mlada Boleslav · On: Filip Spatenka · Off: Daniel Langhamer
  37. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Slavia Praha · On: David Jurasek · Off: Michal Sadílek
  38. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Mlada Boleslav · On: Matej Zachoval · Off: Martin Šubert
  39. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Slavia Praha win: 77% at kick-off, 7% now
  40. 75′26 shots for Slavia Praha, 9 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 7–26–68
  41. 79′We said Slavia Praha at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–22–75
  42. 85′28 shots for Slavia Praha, 9 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 1–13–86
  43. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Slavia Praha · On: Danijel Sturm · Off: Lukáš Provod
  44. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Slavia Praha · On: Mikulas Konecny · Off: Tomáš Holeš
  45. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Slavia Praha 1–1 Mlada Boleslav
  46. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Slavia Praha win: 77% at kick-off, 13% now
  47. 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Mlada Boleslav win 87%)
  48. 87′86′: Mojmír Chytil on the scoresheet for Slavia Praha, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 12–85–3
  49. 88′34 shots for Slavia Praha, 9 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 11–86–3
  50. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Slavia Praha win: 77% at kick-off, 7% now
  51. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Mlada Boleslav · On: Josef Kolarik · Off: Solomon John
  52. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Vojtěch Vorel · Mlada Boleslav
  53. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Danijel Sturm · Slavia Praha
  54. FTFULL TIME Slavia Praha 1–1 Mlada Boleslav
  55. FTSlavia Praha 1–1 Mlada Boleslav · Slavia Praha win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Slavia Praha are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Slavia Praha 77%, draw 15%, Mlada Boleslav 8%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Slavia Praha v Mlada BoleslavBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Slavia Praha win77%
Draw15%
Mlada Boleslav win8%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueSinobo Stadium

Line-ups

Slavia Praha

3-4-2-1

Mlada Boleslav

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Slavia Praha

Mlada Boleslav

4Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 17 Oct · Czech Liga

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Slavia Praha11+2027
4Mlada Boleslav11+520

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Slavia Praha

3-4-2-1

29 N. Domchak

3 T. Holeš

22 T. Diakité

6 A. N'Guessan

14 S. Isife

23 M. Sadílek

30 W. Nowak

8 O. Kubiak

20 E. Ayaosi

13 M. Chytil

17 L. Provod

Coach · J. Trpišovský

Substitutes

1 · O. Kolář

39 · D. Jurásek

42 · M. Konečný

16 · D. Moses

40 · Adam Rezek

15 · M. E. Suleiman

27 · T. Vlček

4 · D. Zima

10 · D. Šturm

Mlada Boleslav

4-2-3-1

42 V. Vorel

32 F. Matoušek

44 O. Karafiát

3 M. Králik

11 M. Hybš

19 D. Kozel

13 D. Donát

20 S. John

28 D. Langhamer

21 M. Šubert

23 J. Klíma

Coach · A. Majer

Substitutes

59 · J. Floder

26 · M. Zachoval

49 · J. Kolářík

77 · D. Pech

14 · S. Grygar

17 · F. Špatenka

18 · M. Havran

9 · L. Letenay

5 · J. Harušťák

Our number · slavia praha winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
77% The market75%
Us77%
Market75%

We make Slavia Praha a 77% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.6–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Slavia Praha v Mlada Boleslav2.64 – 0.76
Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 30 AugW5 D1 L0 · W3 D0 L3
Table places · points 27 v 201 v 4
The market · Slavia Praha win75% · ours 77%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
70%75%80% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 15:59
Our probability · Slavia Praha win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Slavia Praha win77%75%+2
Draw15%15%0
Mlada Boleslav win8%10%−2
Over 2.5 goals66%70%−4
Both teams to score49%55%−6
Over 1.5 goals85%86%−1
Over 3.5 goals44%49%−5
Slavia Praha or draw92%90%+2
Slavia Praha clean sheet47%––
Mlada Boleslav clean sheet7%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.6%
0123450 3.9 2.3 1 8.6 7.1 2.6 2 11.6 8.7 3.3 3 10.1 7.5 2.9 4 6.7 5.0 5 3.6 2.7
under 2% 5% 12%+Slavia Praha down, Mlada Boleslav across0–5 goals a side shown (94.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.54 of 10
Both scored3 of 10
Last meetingsSLA 4–0 MLA · MLA 1–3 SLA · SLA 1–0 MLA · MLA 0–2 SLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 30 Aug

SLAVIA PRAHA

WWWWWD3–0 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

MLADA BOLESLAV

WLWLLW4–0 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Slavia Praha11+2027
2Sigma Olomouc11+420
3Slovan Liberec11+620
4Mlada Boleslav11+520
5Zbrojovka Brno11019
6Sparta Praha11+819
7Teplice11+117
8FK Jablonec11+217
9Plzen11+416
10Bohemians 190510015
11Hradec Králové11−315
12Pardubice11−411
13Baník Ostrava11−1111
14Artis10−98
15Slovácko11−87
16Zlin11−151

The competition's standings before kick-off.