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Sigma Olomouc v Slovan Liberec

Sigma Olomouc

1–0Full time

Slovan Liberec

Czech Liga · SAT 17 OCT · Andruv Stadion

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Sigma Olomouc 1–0 Slovan Liberec SIGMA OLOMOUC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sigma Olomouc win~~39%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.560

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.639

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sigma Olomouc win at 39%.
2′Much as we predicted: Sigma Olomouc was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–29–33
2′KICK-OFF Sigma Olomouc v Slovan Liberec
11′We published Sigma Olomouc at 39%. Our model now makes it 68%. 1–0 · 68–20–13
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Sigma Olomouc 1–0 Slovan Liberec
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Sigma Olomouc win: 39% at kick-off, 68% now
12′Sigma Olomouc ahead on 12′ through Matej Hadas. 1–0. 1–0 · 68–20–12
14′Sigma Olomouc ahead on 11′ through Matej Hadas. 1–0. 1–0 · 68–20–12
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Sigma Olomouc win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
27′We published Sigma Olomouc at 39%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 70–20–10
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Sigma Olomouc 1–1 Slovan Liberec
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Sigma Olomouc win: 39% at kick-off, 34% now
36′GOAL DISALLOWED · 36' Slovan Liberec
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Sigma Olomouc win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Vojtech Stransky · Slovan Liberec
45′SECOND HALF Sigma Olomouc 1–0 Slovan Liberec
46′HALF-TIME Sigma Olomouc 1–0 Slovan Liberec
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Sigma Olomouc 1–1 Slovan Liberec
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Sigma Olomouc win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Sigma Olomouc win 29%)
53′Matěj Mikulenka scores for Slovan Liberec on 52′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–46–25
54′We published Sigma Olomouc at 39%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
55′GOAL DISALLOWED · 55' Slovan Liberec
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Sigma Olomouc win: 39% at kick-off, 76% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Sigma Olomouc win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Sigma Olomouc win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
65′We published Sigma Olomouc at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Slovan Liberec · On: Lukas Masek · Off: Matěj Mikulenka
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Slovan Liberec · On: Alexandr Buzek · Off: Vojtech Stransky
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Sigma Olomouc · On: Jan Kliment · Off: David Tkáč
74′We published Sigma Olomouc at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sigma Olomouc · On: Anton Ekeroth · Off: Matej Hadas
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Patrik Dulay · Slovan Liberec
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Alexandr Buzek · Slovan Liberec
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Sigma Olomouc win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
81′We published Sigma Olomouc at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
86′We said Sigma Olomouc at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 1–1 · 7–88–6
86′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Slovan Liberec · On: Vénuste Baboula · Off: Aleko Basiladze
86′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Slovan Liberec · On: Milan Lexa · Off: Patrik Dulay
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sigma Olomouc · On: Hilmir Rafn Mikaelsson · Off: Vaclav Sejk
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Sigma Olomouc 1–1 Slovan Liberec
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Sigma Olomouc win: 39% at kick-off, 7% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Sigma Olomouc win 7%)
87′Lukas Masek scores for Slovan Liberec on 86′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 6–89–5
89′We published Sigma Olomouc at 39%. Our model now makes it 96%. 1–0 · 96–4–0
89′GOAL DISALLOWED · 89' Slovan Liberec
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Sigma Olomouc win: 39% at kick-off, 96% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Sigma Olomouc win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Slovan Liberec · On: Enej Marsetic · Off: Lukáš Masopust
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Sigma Olomouc win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
97′Full time, 1–0. We called Sigma Olomouc at 39% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Jan Kliment · Sigma Olomouc
FTFULL TIME Sigma Olomouc 1–0 Slovan Liberec
FTSigma Olomouc 1–0 Slovan Liberec · Sigma Olomouc win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sigma Olomouc are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sigma Olomouc 39%, draw 28%, Slovan Liberec 33%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Sigma Olomouc v Slovan LiberecBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sigma Olomouc win39%

Draw28%

Slovan Liberec win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueAndruv Stadion

Line-ups

Sigma Olomouc

3-4-3

Slovan Liberec

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sigma Olomouc

Slovan Liberec

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Czech Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Slovan Liberec	10	+7	20
5	Sigma Olomouc	10	+3	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sigma Olomouc

3-4-3

91 Jan Koutný

2 A. Sylla

33 M. Malý

4 Léo Borges

22 M. Hadaš

7 M. Beran

14 M. Soldo

70 A. Ghali

39 D. Janošek

10 V. Sejk

24 D. Tkáč

Coach · P. Hapal

Substitutes

17 · J. Dembe

29 · A. Ekeroth

98 · M. Hruška

5 · T. Huk

9 · J. Kliment

11 · H. Mikaelsson

26 · S. Noumbissie

16 · F. Slavíček

8 · J. Spáčil

28 · I. Brzyski

Slovan Liberec

4-2-3-1

40 T. Koubek

5 P. Hodouš

29 L. Hůlka

26 J. Bořil

27 A. Kayondo

12 V. Stránský

8 L. Masopust

24 P. Dulay

19 V. Kušej

6 A. Basiladze

25 M. Mikulenka

Coach · B. Fodrek

Substitutes

94 · Venuste Baboula

28 · V. Sychra

33 · L. Pešl

3 · J. Mikula

9 · L. Mašek

79 · E. Marsetič

15 · M. Lexa

18 · J. Koželuh

16 · A. Bužek

77 · D. Rus

23 · Haris Berbić

Our number · sigma olomouc winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off

39% The market35%

Us39%

~~Market~~35%

We make Sigma Olomouc a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sigma Olomouc v Slovan Liberec~~1.31 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 20~~5 v 2

~~The market · Sigma Olomouc win~~35% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sigma Olomouc win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sigma Olomouc win	39%	35%	+4
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Slovan Liberec win	33%	38%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	45%	50%	−5
Both teams to score	51%	55%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	71%	74%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	24%	29%	−5
Sigma Olomouc or draw	67%	62%	+5
Sigma Olomouc clean sheet	31%	–	–
Slovan Liberec clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.1 9.2 5.8 2.3 1 10.3 13.3 7.5 3.0 2 7.1 8.3 4.9 3 3.1 3.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sigma Olomouc down, Slovan Liberec across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,480 Czech Liga matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Czech Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sigma Olomouc at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Slovan Liberec away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Sigma Olomouc, 1.18 for Slovan Liberec. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SLO 1–0 SIG · SIG 2–1 SLO · SIG 1–4 SLO · SLO 1–1 SIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 22 Aug

SIGMA OLOMOUC

WLWWLD3–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 1–1

SLOVAN LIBEREC

WWWWDL1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	10	+20	26
2	Slovan Liberec	10	+7	20
3	Sparta Praha	10	+8	18
4	Mlada Boleslav	10	+4	17
5	Sigma Olomouc	10	+3	17
6	FK Jablonec	10	+3	17
7	Teplice	10	+2	17
8	Zbrojovka Brno	10	−1	16
9	Bohemians 1905	10	0	15
10	Hradec Králové	10	−3	14
11	Plzen	10	+3	13
12	Baník Ostrava	10	−11	10
13	Artis	10	−9	8
14	Pardubice	10	−7	8
15	Slovácko	10	−7	7
16	Zlin	10	−12	1