Plzen v Pardubice prediction · Czech Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PlzenDrawPardubice

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Plzen 67%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Plzen are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Plzen 67%, draw 20%, Pardubice 13%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Plzen v PardubiceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Plzen win67%

Draw20%

Pardubice win13%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueDoosan Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Plzen

Pardubice

3Days since last match8

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 17 Oct · Czech Liga

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Plzen	11	+4	16
12	Pardubice	11	−4	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · plzen winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

67% The market60%

Us67%

~~Market~~60%

We make Plzen a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Plzen v Pardubice~~2.19 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 11~~9 v 12

~~The market · Plzen win~~60% · ours 67%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Plzen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Plzen win	67%	60%	+7
Draw	20%	22%	−2
Pardubice win	13%	18%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	59%	59%	0
Both teams to score	52%	56%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	81%	81%	0
Over 3.5 goals	37%	38%	−1
Plzen or draw	87%	82%	+5
Plzen clean sheet	42%	–	–
Pardubice clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.1%

0123450 5.4 3.6 1 9.8 9.4 3.9 2 11.1 9.6 4.2 3 8.1 6.9 3.0 4 4.5 3.8 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Plzen down, Pardubice across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,491 Czech Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Czech Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Plzen at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Pardubice away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.19 goals for Plzen, 0.87 for Pardubice. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PLZ 0–1 PAR · PAR 1–5 PLZ · PAR 0–0 PLZ · PLZ 2–0 PAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 29 Aug

PLZEN

WDLLWW3–0 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 3–2

PARDUBICE

LDWWLW1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	12	+20	28
2	Mlada Boleslav	12	+5	21
3	Sigma Olomouc	12	+4	21
4	Slovan Liberec	11	+6	20
5	Zbrojovka Brno	12	0	20
6	Sparta Praha	11	+8	19
7	Teplice	12	+1	18
8	FK Jablonec	11	+2	17
9	Plzen	11	+4	16
10	Bohemians 1905	11	0	16
11	Hradec Králové	11	−3	15
12	Pardubice	11	−4	11
13	Baník Ostrava	11	−11	11
14	Artis	11	−9	9
15	Slovácko	11	−8	7
16	Zlin	12	−15	2