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Plzen v Mlada Boleslav

Plzen

3–0Full time

Mlada Boleslav

Czech Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Doosan Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Plzen 3–0 Mlada Boleslav PLZEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Plzen win~~61%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.225

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.198

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Plzen win at 61%.
2′Plzen ahead on 2′ through C. Kabongo. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–12–7
2′KICK-OFF Plzen v Mlada Boleslav
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Plzen win: 61% at kick-off, 82% now
9′We said Plzen at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–12–6
14′🟨 YELLOW · 13' T. Paliscak · Plzen
20′We said Plzen at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–4–1
20′⚽ GOAL · 21' Plzen 2–0 Mlada Boleslav · S. Pirgic (assist P. Hrosovsky)
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Plzen win: 61% at kick-off, 94% now
23′S. Pirgic scores for Plzen on 21′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–4–1
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' A. Gabriel · Plzen
32′We said Plzen at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' S. John · Mlada Boleslav
45′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 2–0 · 96–4–1
45′SECOND HALF Plzen 2–0 Mlada Boleslav
47′HALF-TIME Plzen 2–0 Mlada Boleslav
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Plzen · On: C. Souare · Off: T. Paliscak
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' A. Sojka · Plzen
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Mlada Boleslav · On: J. Buryan · Off: J. Klima
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Mlada Boleslav · On: J. Kolarik · Off: S. John
66′Mlada Boleslav have had 15.0 attempts to 8.0 and it is still 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Plzen · On: T. Ladra · Off: J. Panos
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Plzen · On: B. Faal · Off: C. Kabongo
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' M. Subert · Mlada Boleslav
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Mlada Boleslav · On: M. Zachoval · Off: F. Matousek
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Mlada Boleslav · On: M. Havran · Off: M. Subert
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Plzen · On: D. Visinsky · Off: A. Memic
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Plzen · On: L. Cerv · Off: P. Hrosovsky
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Mlada Boleslav · On: F. Spatenka · Off: D. Langhamer
82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' B. Faal · Plzen
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Plzen 3–0 Mlada Boleslav · S. Pirgic
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Plzen 3–0 Mlada Boleslav
FTFULL TIME Plzen 3–0 Mlada Boleslav
FTPlzen 3–0 Mlada Boleslav · Plzen win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Plzen win61%

Draw21%

Mlada Boleslav win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Doosan Arena

Referee · O. Berka

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Plzen

4-2-3-1

1 D. Tapaj

29 A. Gabriel

40 S. Dweh

98 F. Prebsl

2 T. Paliscak

36 S. Pirgic

17 P. Hrosovsky

99 A. Memic

20 J. Panos

12 A. Sojka

25 C. Kabongo

Coach · Radoslav Kovac

Substitutes

30 · V. Baier

3 · D. Vavro

5 · K. Spacil

18 · T. Ladra

6 · L. Cerv

9 · D. Visinsky

19 · C. Souare

80 · P. Adu

7 · S. Lawal

23 · B. Faal

Mlada Boleslav

4-2-3-1

59 J. Floder

32 F. Matousek

44 O. Karafiat

3 M. Kralik

11 M. Hybs

19 D. Kozel

76 J. Zika

20 S. John

28 D. Langhamer

21 M. Subert

23 J. Klima

Coach · Ales Majer

Substitutes

42 · V. Vorel

13 · D. Donat

26 · M. Zachoval

5 · J. Harustak

14 · S. Grygar

49 · J. Kolarik

18 · M. Havran

9 · L. Letenay

70 · J. Buryan

17 · F. Spatenka

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Plzen

4-2-3-1

1 D. Tapaj

29 A. Gabriel

40 S. Dweh

98 F. Prebsl

2 T. Paliscak

36 S. Pirgic

17 P. Hrosovsky

99 A. Memic

20 J. Panos

12 A. Sojka

25 C. Kabongo

Coach · Radoslav Kovac

Substitutes

30 · V. Baier

3 · D. Vavro

5 · K. Spacil

18 · T. Ladra

6 · L. Cerv

9 · D. Visinsky

19 · C. Souare

80 · P. Adu

7 · S. Lawal

23 · B. Faal

Mlada Boleslav

4-2-3-1

59 J. Floder

32 F. Matousek

44 O. Karafiat

3 M. Kralik

11 M. Hybs

19 D. Kozel

76 J. Zika

20 S. John

28 D. Langhamer

21 M. Subert

23 J. Klima

Coach · Ales Majer

Substitutes

42 · V. Vorel

13 · D. Donat

26 · M. Zachoval

5 · J. Harustak

14 · S. Grygar

49 · J. Kolarik

18 · M. Havran

9 · L. Letenay

70 · J. Buryan

17 · F. Spatenka

Our number · plzen winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

61% The market64%

Us61%

~~Market~~64%

We make Plzen a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.2–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · plzen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 63% to 64% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Plzen win	61%	64%	−2
Draw	21%	20%	+1
Mlada Boleslav win	18%	17%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	63%	67%	−3
Both teams to score	59%	61%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	85%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	41%	46%	−5
Plzen or draw	82%	83%	−1
Plzen clean sheet	34%	–	–
Mlada Boleslav clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.5 3.7 2.3 1 7.8 9.5 4.9 2 8.9 9.7 5.3 3 6.5 7.0 3.8 4 3.6 3.8 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Plzen down, Mlada Boleslav across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,472 Czech Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Czech Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.9% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.55 goals a meeting; 5 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Plzen at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Mlada Boleslav away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.18 goals for Plzen, 1.10 for Mlada Boleslav. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:10. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.55

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 11

~~Both scored~~5 of 11

~~Last meetings~~PLZ 2–1 MLA · MLA 0–5 PLZ · MLA 0–2 PLZ · PLZ 1–1 MLA

Form · last six in Czech Liga

PLZEN

WDWDLL3–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 1–2

MLADA BOLESLAV

WDWWLW2–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 0–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	10	+20	26
2	Slovan Liberec	9	+9	20
3	Mlada Boleslav	8	+8	17
4	Sigma Olomouc	9	+3	16
5	Teplice	9	+2	16
6	Zbrojovka Brno	9	0	16
7	Sparta Praha	9	+6	15
8	FK Jablonec	9	+2	14
9	Hradec Králové	9	−1	14
10	Plzen	9	0	10
11	Baník Ostrava	9	−10	10
12	Bohemians 1905	8	−2	9
13	Pardubice	9	−5	8
14	Artis	9	−11	5
15	Slovácko	9	−9	4
16	Zlin	10	−12	1