Pardubice v Zlin prediction · Czech Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Pardubice 3–0 Zlin PARDUBICE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pardubice win~~45%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.448

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.219

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pardubice win at 45%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Pardubice 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
2′KICK-OFF Pardubice v Zlin
15′We said Pardubice at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–18–10
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Pardubice 1–0 Zlin
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Pardubice win: 45% at kick-off, 73% now
16′Marek Icha scores for Pardubice on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–10
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–8
32′We said Pardubice at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Pardubice 2–0 Zlin
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Pardubice win: 45% at kick-off, 92% now
33′33′: Victor Samuel on the scoresheet for Pardubice, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
45′SECOND HALF Pardubice 2–0 Zlin
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Zlin · On: Tomáš Poznar · Off: Daniel Smiga
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Zlin · On: Frank Appiah · Off: Cletus Nombil
46′HALF-TIME Pardubice 2–0 Zlin
49′We said Pardubice at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Pardubice win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
52′33′: Victor Samuel on the scoresheet for Pardubice, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
52′We said Pardubice at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
55′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 2–0 · 96–4–1
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Michal Fukala · Zlin
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Zlin · On: Stanley Guzorochi Kanu · Off: Michal Fukala
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Pardubice · On: Tomas Jelinek · Off: Ioannis Foivos Botos
63′We said Pardubice at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Pardubice 3–0 Zlin
64′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
65′Pardubice ahead on 64′ through Tomas Jelinek. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Zlin · On: David Grygera · Off: Ondřej Kukučka
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Pardubice · On: Kahuan Vinicius · Off: Victor Samuel
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Pardubice · On: Martin Reil · Off: Václav Drchal
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Zlin · On: Michal Cupák · Off: David Machalík
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Pardubice · On: Mouhamed Tidjane Traore · Off: Ryan Mahuta
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Pardubice · On: Jiri Zima · Off: Marek Icha
91′3–0 at the end. Our 45% on Pardubice comes in. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Pardubice 3–0 Zlin
FTPardubice 3–0 Zlin · Pardubice win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pardubice are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pardubice 45%, draw 27%, Zlin 28%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Pardubice v ZlinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Pardubice win45%

Draw27%

Zlin win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueLetni Stadion

Line-ups

Pardubice

4-3-3

Zlin

4-5-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pardubice

Zlin

6Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Czech Liga

Last match: 9 Oct · Czech Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Pardubice	10	−7	8
16	Zlin	10	−12	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Pardubice

4-3-3

46 V. Neuman

15 E. Godwin

33 D. Halinský

37 D. Krčík

25 R. Mahuta

90 G. Botos

6 M. Icha

19 M. Hlavatý

20 A. Tanko

17 V. Drchal

35 S. Ďatko

Coach · J. Trousil

Substitutes

11 · J. Zima

16 · T. Jelínek

43 · J. Noslin

27 · M. Reil

77 · R. Saarma

1 · J. Šerák

9 · D. Smékal

21 · M. Traore

12 · J. Trédl

99 · Kahuan Vinicius

40 · T. Boledovič

Zlin

4-5-1

17 S. Dostál

35 O. Kukučka

45 Prince Mbatshi Mukuba

39 A. Křapka

22 M. Fukala

23 M. Kopečný

27 M. Kratochvíl

8 D. Machalík

19 C. Nombil

82 M. Pišoja

9 D. Šmiga

Coach · P. Hoftych

Substitutes

4 · T. Ulbrich

88 · T. Poznar

34 · M. Knobloch

14 · S. Kanu

21 · D. Grygera

6 · J. Didiba

26 · M. Cupák

31 · L. Bartošák

20 · F. Appiah

3 · Jiří Štefan

Our number · pardubice winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:34 · locked at kick-off

45% The market62%

Us45%

~~Market~~62%

We make Pardubice a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pardubice v Zlin~~1.52 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 8 v 1~~14 v 16

~~The market · Pardubice win~~62% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pardubice win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pardubice win	45%	62%	−17
Draw	27%	23%	+4
Zlin win	28%	15%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	50%	52%	−2
Both teams to score	53%	49%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	75%	75%	0
Over 3.5 goals	28%	32%	−4
Pardubice or draw	72%	85%	−13
Pardubice clean sheet	32%	–	–
Zlin clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.8 7.4 4.6 1 10.1 12.6 6.8 2.6 2 8.1 9.1 5.1 3 4.1 4.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pardubice down, Zlin across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,480 Czech Liga matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Czech Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pardubice at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Zlin away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Pardubice, 1.14 for Zlin. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PAR 3–1 ZLI · ZLI 2–2 PAR · PAR 2–0 ZLI · ZLI 1–1 PAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 22 Aug

PARDUBICE

LLDWWL1–3 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

ZLIN

LLLLDL0–1 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	10	+20	26
2	Slovan Liberec	10	+7	20
3	Sparta Praha	10	+8	18
4	Mlada Boleslav	10	+4	17
5	Sigma Olomouc	10	+3	17
6	FK Jablonec	10	+3	17
7	Teplice	10	+2	17
8	Zbrojovka Brno	10	−1	16
9	Bohemians 1905	10	0	15
10	Hradec Králové	10	−3	14
11	Plzen	10	+3	13
12	Baník Ostrava	10	−11	10
13	Artis	10	−9	8
14	Pardubice	10	−7	8
15	Slovácko	10	−7	7
16	Zlin	10	−12	1