Mlada Boleslav v Teplice prediction · Czech Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Mlada Boleslav 1–0 Teplice MLADA BOLESLAV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mlada Boleslav win~~44%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.473

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.443

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mlada Boleslav win at 44%.
2′Much as we predicted: Mlada Boleslav was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
2′KICK-OFF Mlada Boleslav v Teplice
25′We published Mlada Boleslav at 44%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–19–10
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Mlada Boleslav 1–0 Teplice
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Mlada Boleslav win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
26′Jan Zíka scores for Mlada Boleslav on 25′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–10
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
33′Teplice have had 8 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Mlada Boleslav win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
45′SECOND HALF Mlada Boleslav 1–0 Teplice
46′HALF-TIME Mlada Boleslav 1–0 Teplice
49′Jan Zíka scores for Mlada Boleslav on 25′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–6
49′We published Mlada Boleslav at 44%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
50′Teplice have had 10 attempts to 3 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–6
51′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Jan Fortelný · Teplice
51′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Daniel Langhamer · Mlada Boleslav
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Teplice · On: Robert Jukl · Off: Jan Fortelný
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Teplice · On: Idris Hopi · Off: Matej Radosta
65′We published Mlada Boleslav at 44%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Teplice · On: Marcel Cermak · Off: Daniel Mareček
68′Teplice have had 12 attempts to 6 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–3
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Mlada Boleslav · On: Josef Kolarik · Off: Martin Šubert
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Matyas Kozak · Teplice
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Mlada Boleslav win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Mlada Boleslav · On: Lukas Letenay · Off: Jiří Klíma
74′We published Mlada Boleslav at 44%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Mlada Boleslav · On: Denis Donat · Off: Jan Zíka
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Teplice · On: Tomas Zlatohlavek · Off: Matyas Kozak
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Teplice · On: Ladislav Krejčí · Off: John Auta
81′We published Mlada Boleslav at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
86′17 shots for Teplice, 8 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 94–6–0
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Mlada Boleslav win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Mlada Boleslav · On: Filip Spatenka · Off: Daniel Langhamer
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Mlada Boleslav · On: Matej Zachoval · Off: Solomon John
88′We published Mlada Boleslav at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Filip Matousek · Mlada Boleslav
93′Full time, 1–0. We called Mlada Boleslav at 44% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Mlada Boleslav 1–0 Teplice
FTMlada Boleslav 1–0 Teplice · Mlada Boleslav win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mlada Boleslav are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mlada Boleslav 44%, draw 26%, Teplice 30%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Mlada Boleslav v TepliceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Mlada Boleslav win44%

Draw26%

Teplice win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueMestsky stadion UMT

Line-ups

Mlada Boleslav

4-2-3-1

Teplice

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mlada Boleslav

Teplice

3Days since last match6

Last match: 14 Oct · Czech Liga

Last match: 11 Oct · Czech Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Mlada Boleslav	10	+4	17
7	Teplice	10	+2	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Mlada Boleslav

4-2-3-1

42 V. Vorel

32 F. Matoušek

44 O. Karafiát

3 M. Králik

11 M. Hybš

19 D. Kozel

76 Jan Zika

20 S. John

28 D. Langhamer

21 M. Šubert

23 J. Klíma

Coach · A. Majer

Substitutes

70 · J. Buryán

13 · D. Donát

59 · J. Floder

14 · S. Grygar

5 · J. Harušťák

18 · M. Havran

49 · J. Kolářík

9 · L. Letenay

17 · F. Špatenka

26 · M. Zachoval

Teplice

4-4-2

29 M. Trmal

3 J. Švanda

4 O. Vientiess

28 D. Večerka

25 M. Riznič

35 M. Radosta

8 J. Fortelný

23 L. Mareček

17 John Auta

37 D. Mareček

11 M. Kozák

Coach · Z. Frťala

Substitutes

7 · A. Badamosi

22 · L. Takács

31 · K. Lichtenberg

14 · Ladislav Krejčí I

19 · R. Jukl

5 · J. Jakubko

21 · I. Hopi

15 · J. Harušťák

12 · M. Čermák

6 · M. Bílek

33 · T. Zlatohlávek

Our number · mlada boleslav winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market46%

Us44%

~~Market~~46%

We make Mlada Boleslav a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mlada Boleslav v Teplice~~1.54 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 17~~4 v 7

~~The market · Mlada Boleslav win~~46% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mlada Boleslav win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mlada Boleslav win	44%	46%	−2
Draw	26%	26%	0
Teplice win	30%	28%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	52%	57%	−5
Both teams to score	56%	60%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	77%	79%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	37%	−7
Mlada Boleslav or draw	70%	72%	−2
Mlada Boleslav clean sheet	30%	–	–
Teplice clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.0 7.2 4.8 1 9.1 12.3 7.2 3.0 2 7.4 9.0 5.5 2.3 3 3.8 4.6 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mlada Boleslav down, Teplice across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,480 Czech Liga matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Czech Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Teplice away: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Mlada Boleslav, 1.23 for Teplice. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MLA 0–2 TEP · MLA 0–0 TEP · TEP 2–3 MLA · MLA 1–0 TEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 22 Aug

MLADA BOLESLAV

WWLWLL2–1 · 4–0 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 0–1

TEPLICE

LWWLWD0–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	10	+20	26
2	Slovan Liberec	10	+7	20
3	Sparta Praha	10	+8	18
4	Mlada Boleslav	10	+4	17
5	Sigma Olomouc	10	+3	17
6	FK Jablonec	10	+3	17
7	Teplice	10	+2	17
8	Zbrojovka Brno	10	−1	16
9	Bohemians 1905	10	0	15
10	Hradec Králové	10	−3	14
11	Plzen	10	+3	13
12	Baník Ostrava	10	−11	10
13	Artis	10	−9	8
14	Pardubice	10	−7	8
15	Slovácko	10	−7	7
16	Zlin	10	−12	1