Hradec Králové v FK Jablonec prediction · Czech Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Hradec KrálovéDrawFK Jablonec

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Hradec Králové 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hradec Králové are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hradec Králové 41%, draw 29%, FK Jablonec 30%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Hradec Králové v FK JablonecBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Hradec Králové win41%

Draw29%

FK Jablonec win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueMalsovicka arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hradec Králové

FK Jablonec

8Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Czech Liga

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	FK Jablonec	11	+2	17
11	Hradec Králové	11	−3	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hradec králové winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market44%

Us41%

~~Market~~44%

We make Hradec Králové a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hradec Králové v FK Jablonec~~1.31 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 17~~11 v 8

~~The market · Hradec Králové win~~44% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hradec Králové win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hradec Králové win	41%	44%	−3
Draw	29%	29%	0
FK Jablonec win	30%	27%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	42%	48%	−6
Both teams to score	48%	53%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	69%	72%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	22%	28%	−6
Hradec Králové or draw	70%	73%	−3
Hradec Králové clean sheet	35%	–	–
FK Jablonec clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 10.2 9.1 5.3 1 11.4 13.6 6.8 2.5 2 8.0 8.4 4.5 3 3.5 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hradec Králové down, FK Jablonec across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,491 Czech Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Czech Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hradec Králové at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). FK Jablonec away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Hradec Králové, 1.07 for FK Jablonec. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FKJ 1–1 HRA · HRA 2–0 FKJ · FKJ 2–0 HRA · HRA 1–2 FKJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 6 Sept

HRADEC KRÁLOVÉ

WDWLLD2–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 0–0

FK JABLONEC

LWLDWL1–2 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	12	+20	28
2	Mlada Boleslav	12	+5	21
3	Sigma Olomouc	12	+4	21
4	Slovan Liberec	11	+6	20
5	Zbrojovka Brno	12	0	20
6	Sparta Praha	11	+8	19
7	Teplice	12	+1	18
8	FK Jablonec	11	+2	17
9	Plzen	11	+4	16
10	Bohemians 1905	11	0	16
11	Hradec Králové	11	−3	15
12	Pardubice	11	−4	11
13	Baník Ostrava	11	−11	11
14	Artis	11	−9	9
15	Slovácko	11	−8	7
16	Zlin	12	−15	2