FK Jablonec v Plzen prediction · Czech Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31

FK Jablonec 2–3 Plzen PLZEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Plzen win~~41%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.524

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.691

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Plzen win at 41%.
2′Much as we predicted: Plzen was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 33–27–41
2′KICK-OFF FK Jablonec v Plzen
16′16′: Sampson Dweh on the scoresheet for Plzen, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 13–19–68
16′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Eduard Sobol · FK Jablonec
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' FK Jablonec 0–1 Plzen · Sampson Dweh
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Plzen win: 41% at kick-off, 68% now
17′15′: Sampson Dweh on the scoresheet for Plzen, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–19–68
17′We published Plzen at 41%. Our model now makes it 68%. 0–1 · 12–19–68
25′We published Plzen at 41%. Our model now makes it 89%. 0–2 · 3–8–89
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' FK Jablonec 0–2 Plzen
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Plzen win: 41% at kick-off, 89% now
26′Plzen ahead on 25′ through Christopher Kabongo. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–89
30′We published Plzen at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–2 · 3–8–90
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Plzen win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
38′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Merchas Doski · Plzen
38′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Sampson Dweh · Plzen
41′PENALTY CANCELLED · 35' FK Jablonec
45′HALF-TIME FK Jablonec 0–2 Plzen
45′SECOND HALF FK Jablonec 0–2 Plzen
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FK Jablonec · On: Saidou Alioum Moubarak · Off: Eduard Sobol
52′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–2 · 1–5–94
54′53′: Amar Memić on the scoresheet for Plzen. 0–2 · 1–5–94
54′We published Plzen at 41%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–3 · 0–1–99
54′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–99
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' FK Jablonec 0–3 Plzen · Amar Memić
58′57′: Dusan Pavlovic on the scoresheet for FK Jablonec, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–95
58′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–4–95
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' FK Jablonec 1–3 Plzen · Dusan Pavlovic (assist Filip Zorvan)
62′13 shots for FK Jablonec, 8 the other way, and they still trail 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–96
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Plzen · On: Cheick Souare · Off: Adam Gabriel
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Plzen · On: tobias paliscak · Off: Merchas Doski
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Saidou Alioum Moubarak · FK Jablonec
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Plzen · On: Baboucarr Faal · Off: Christopher Kabongo
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Plzen · On: Salim Fago Lawal · Off: Amar Memić
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FK Jablonec · On: Dominik Holly · Off: Vakhtang TChanturishvili
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FK Jablonec · On: Nelson Okeke · Off: Richard Sedláček
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FK Jablonec · On: Jan Chramosta · Off: Antonín Růsek
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Plzen · On: Stefan Pirgic · Off: Denis Višinský
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Baboucarr Faal · Plzen
80′FK Jablonec have had 16 attempts to 8 and it is still 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
83′We published Plzen at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FK Jablonec · On: Hugo Ahl · Off: Garang Mawien Kuol
85′FK Jablonec pull one back on 84′ through Filip Zorvan. 2–3. 2–3 · 0–7–93
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' FK Jablonec 2–3 Plzen · Filip Zorvan
86′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–6–94
94′21 shots for FK Jablonec, 10 the other way, and they still trail 2–3. 2–3 · 0–1–99
FTFULL TIME FK Jablonec 2–3 Plzen
FTFK Jablonec 2–3 Plzen · Plzen win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Plzen are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FK Jablonec 33%, draw 26%, Plzen 41%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on FK Jablonec v PlzenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FK Jablonec win33%

Draw26%

Plzen win41%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadion Střelnice

Line-ups

FK Jablonec

4-2-3-1

Plzen

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FK Jablonec

Plzen

3Days since last match3

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	FK Jablonec	10	+3	17
11	Plzen	10	+3	13

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Conference League Player Ratings | Freiburg 3 – 2 FK JablonecGet German Football News · 15 Oct 22:07 · SC Freiburg, FK Jablonec

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FK Jablonec

4-2-3-1

1 J. Hanuš

18 M. Cedidla

4 N. Tekijaški

15 D. Pavlović

23 E. Sobol

25 S. Nebyla

13 R. Sedláček

36 G. Kuol

8 F. Zorvan

7 V. Tchanturishvili

9 A. Růsek

Coach · L. Kozel

Substitutes

57 · F. Novák

16 · H. Ahl

6 · N. Okeke

17 · S. Alioum

19 · J. Chramosta

24 · D. Hollý

21 · M. Polidar

20 · J. Sláma

22 · Roman Horák

33 · M. Kukučka

14 · D. Souček

Plzen

4-2-3-1

44 F. Wiegele

29 A. Gabriel

40 S. Dweh

98 F. Prebsl

14 Merchas Doski

17 P. Hrošovský

6 L. Červ

99 A. Memić

18 T. Ladra

9 D. Višinský

25 C. Kabongo

Coach · R. Kováč

Substitutes

2 · T. Pališčák

20 · Jiří Maxim Panoš

36 · S. Pirgić

19 · C. Souaré

5 · Karel Spáčil

1 · D. Ťapaj

10 · M. Toure

3 · D. Vavro

11 · M. Vydra

23 · B. Faal

7 · S. Lawal

Our number · plzen winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market33%

Us41%

~~Market~~33%

We make Plzen a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FK Jablonec v Plzen~~1.30 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 13~~8 v 11

~~The market · Plzen win~~33% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Plzen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FK Jablonec win	33%	40%	−7
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Plzen win	41%	33%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	52%	52%	0
Both teams to score	56%	57%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	75%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	31%	−1
FK Jablonec or draw	59%	67%	−8
FK Jablonec clean sheet	23%	–	–
Plzen clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 6.9 8.7 6.8 3.4 1 7.5 12.3 8.7 4.3 2 5.2 7.6 5.6 2.8 3 2.3 3.3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FK Jablonec down, Plzen across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,484 Czech Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Czech Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.90 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FK Jablonec at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Plzen away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for FK Jablonec, 1.48 for Plzen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.90

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PLZ 5–0 FKJ · FKJ 3–3 PLZ · PLZ 1–1 FKJ · PLZ 4–1 FKJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 30 Aug

FK JABLONEC

DLWLDW1–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–0

PLZEN

DWDLLW1–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	11	+20	27
2	Sigma Olomouc	11	+4	20
3	Slovan Liberec	11	+6	20
4	Mlada Boleslav	11	+5	20
5	Zbrojovka Brno	11	0	19
6	Sparta Praha	10	+8	18
7	Teplice	11	+1	17
8	FK Jablonec	10	+3	17
9	Bohemians 1905	10	0	15
10	Hradec Králové	11	−3	15
11	Plzen	10	+3	13
12	Pardubice	11	−4	11
13	Baník Ostrava	10	−11	10
14	Artis	10	−9	8
15	Slovácko	11	−8	7
16	Zlin	11	−15	1