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Bohemians 1905 v Mlada Boleslav

Bohemians 1905
1–0Full time
Mlada Boleslav

Czech Liga · WED 14 OCT · Dolicek Stadium

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 19:45
Bohemians 1905 1–0 Mlada Boleslav BOHEMIANS 1905 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Bohemians 1905 win41%
The market said50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.525
The market’s Brier score0.381

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Bohemians 1905 win at 41%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Bohemians 1905 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–32
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Bohemians 1905 v Mlada Boleslav
  4. 12′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Jiri Floder · Mlada Boleslav
  5. 13′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Jan Zíka · Mlada Boleslav
  6. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Bohemians 1905 1–0 Mlada Boleslav · Aleš Čermák
  7. 14′Bohemians 1905 ahead on 13′ through Aleš Čermák. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–12
  8. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Bohemians 1905 win: 41% at kick-off, 69% now
  9. 15′We said Bohemians 1905 at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–20–12
  10. 25′We said Bohemians 1905 at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
  11. 28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Aleš Majer · Mlada Boleslav
  12. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 70–20–10
  13. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Bohemians 1905 win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
  14. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Vojtech Smrz · Bohemians 1905
  15. 45′8.0 shots for Mlada Boleslav, 3.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–0 · 73–20–7
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Bohemians 1905 1–0 Mlada Boleslav
  17. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Mlada Boleslav · On: Josef Kolarik · Off: Solomon John
  18. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Ladislav Krobot · Bohemians 1905
  19. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Bohemians 1905 · On: Václav Pilař · Off: Ladislav Krobot
  20. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Bohemians 1905 · On: Šimon Černý · Off: Roman Kvet
  21. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Mlada Boleslav · On: David Kozel · Off: Filip Spatenka
  22. 57′SECOND HALF Bohemians 1905 1–0 Mlada Boleslav
  23. 58′We said Bohemians 1905 at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–19–5
  24. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Jiří Klíma · Mlada Boleslav
  25. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Tomas Fruhwald · Bohemians 1905
  26. 66′We said Bohemians 1905 at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  27. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Bohemians 1905 win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
  28. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Martin Šubert · Mlada Boleslav
  29. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Mlada Boleslav · On: Marek Havran · Off: Daniel Langhamer
  30. 75′We said Bohemians 1905 at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
  31. 81′We said Bohemians 1905 at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  32. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Bohemians 1905 win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
  33. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Bohemians 1905 · On: Denis Vala · Off: Ladislav Almási
  34. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Bohemians 1905 · On: Samuel Obinaya · Off: Vojtech Smrz
  35. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Mlada Boleslav · On: Jan Buryan · Off: Ondrej Karafiat
  36. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Samuel Obinaya · Bohemians 1905
  37. 88′We said Bohemians 1905 at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  38. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Aleš Čermák · Bohemians 1905
  39. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Bohemians 1905 · On: David Heidenreich · Off: Aleš Čermák
  40. 94′1–0 at the end. Our 41% on Bohemians 1905 comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
  41. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 94' David Lischka · Bohemians 1905
  42. FTFULL TIME Bohemians 1905 1–0 Mlada Boleslav
  43. FTBohemians 1905 1–0 Mlada Boleslav · Bohemians 1905 win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Bohemians 1905 v Mlada BoleslavBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 16:33 · locked at kick-off

Bohemians 1905 win41%
Draw27%
Mlada Boleslav win32%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 17:00

VenueDolicek Stadium

RefereeK. Roucek

Line-ups

Bohemians 1905

5-3-2

Mlada Boleslav

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bohemians 1905

Mlada Boleslav

4Days since last match4
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Mlada Boleslav9517
11Bohemians 19059-112

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bohemians 1905

5-3-2

23 T. Frühwald

32 P. Mirvald

24 M. Havel

27 D. Lischka

3 Matej Kadlec

37 D. Javorček

47 A. Čermák

42 V. Smrž

16 R. Květ

9 L. Krobot

99 L. Almási

Coach · J. Veselý

Substitutes

15 · M. Banda

70 · Simon Cerny

8 · D. Heidenreich

25 · P. Kareem

19 · J. Kovařík

62 · Samuel Obinaya

11 · V. Pilař

12 · M. Reichl

18 · D. Vala

22 · J. Vondra

13 · V. Zeman

Mlada Boleslav

4-2-3-1

59 J. Floder

13 D. Donát

44 O. Karafiát

3 M. Králik

11 M. Hybš

17 F. Špatenka

76 Jan Zika

20 S. John

28 D. Langhamer

21 M. Šubert

23 J. Klíma

Coach · A. Majer

Substitutes

14 · S. Grygar

5 · J. Harušťák

18 · M. Havran

49 · J. Kolářík

19 · D. Kozel

9 · L. Letenay

32 · F. Matoušek

77 · D. Pech

42 · V. Vorel

26 · M. Zachoval

70 · J. Buryán

Our number · bohemians 1905 winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 16:33 · locked at kick-off
41% The market50%
Us41%
Market50%

We make Bohemians 1905 a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Bohemians 1905 v Mlada Boleslav1.41 – 1.21
Last six in Czech LigaW2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 12 v 1711 v 4
The market · Bohemians 1905 win50% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 9 OCT 06:1814 OCT 16:39
Our probability · bohemians 1905 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 41% now. The market has gone from 42% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Bohemians 1905 win41%50%−9
Draw27%24%+3
Mlada Boleslav win32%26%+5
Over 2.5 goals49%60%−11
Both teams to score53%62%−8
Over 1.5 goals74%81%−6
Over 3.5 goals27%38%−11
Bohemians 1905 or draw68%74%−5
Bohemians 1905 clean sheet30%––
Mlada Boleslav clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%
0123450 8.0 8.2 5.4 2.2 1 9.6 12.9 7.4 3.0 2 7.2 8.6 5.2 2.1 3 3.4 4.1 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Bohemians 1905 down, Mlada Boleslav across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.60
Over 2.58 of 10
Both scored8 of 10
Last meetingsMLA 2–2 BOH · BOH 1–1 MLA · MLA 1–2 BOH · BOH 2–2 MLA

Form · last six in Czech Liga

BOHEMIANS 1905

DDLWLW2–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0

MLADA BOLESLAV

DWWLWL1–1 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Slavia Praha102026
2Slovan Liberec10720
3Sparta Praha10818
4Mlada Boleslav9517
5Sigma Olomouc10317
6FK Jablonec10317
7Teplice10217
8Zbrojovka Brno10-116
9Hradec Králové10-314
10Plzen10313
11Bohemians 19059-112
12Baník Ostrava10-1110
13Artis10-98
14Pardubice10-78
15Slovácko10-77
16Zlin10-121

The competition's standings.