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Bohemians 1905 v Baník Ostrava

Bohemians 1905

1–0Full time

Baník Ostrava

Czech Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Dolicek

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Bohemians 1905 1–0 Baník Ostrava BOHEMIANS 1905 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bohemians 1905 win~~39%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.563

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.489

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bohemians 1905 win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bohemians 1905 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–33
1′KICK-OFF Bohemians 1905 v Baník Ostrava
7′Little has changed for our model: Bohemians 1905 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–29–32
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Bohemians 1905 1–0 Baník Ostrava
25′⚽ GOAL · 26' Bohemians 1905 1–0 Baník Ostrava · A. Cermak
26′26′ and it is 1–0: A. Cermak on the scoresheet for Bohemians 1905. 1–0 · 70–21–10
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Bohemians 1905 win: 39% at kick-off, 70% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Bohemians 1905 win: 39% at kick-off, 37% now
30′We said Bohemians 1905 at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
31′We said Bohemians 1905 at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
34′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 71–21–9
45′HALF-TIME Bohemians 1905 1–0 Baník Ostrava
45′SECOND HALF Bohemians 1905 1–0 Baník Ostrava
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Baník Ostrava · On: D. Gilbert · Off: F. Sancl
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Bohemians 1905 win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Bohemians 1905 win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Bohemians 1905 win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Bohemians 1905 win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Bohemians 1905 win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Baník Ostrava · On: A. Musak · Off: D. Planka
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Bohemians 1905 · On: S. Obinaya · Off: V. Smrz
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Bohemians 1905 · On: V. Pilar · Off: L. Krobot
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Bohemians 1905 2–0 Baník Ostrava · A. Cermak
72′⚽ GOAL · 73' Bohemians 1905 2–0 Baník Ostrava · L. Almasi
74′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Baník Ostrava · On: A. Traore · Off: J. Boula
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Baník Ostrava · On: M. Kohut · Off: V. Jurecka
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Bohemians 1905 · On: S. Cerny · Off: R. Kvet
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Baník Ostrava · On: M. Kmet · Off: D. Holzer
92′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Bohemians 1905 · On: D. Vala · Off: A. Cermak
93′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Bohemians 1905 · On: D. Vala · Off: A. Cermak
93′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Bohemians 1905 · On: D. Heidenreich · Off: L. Almasi
FTFULL TIME Bohemians 1905 1–0 Baník Ostrava
FTBohemians 1905 1–0 Baník Ostrava · Bohemians 1905 win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Bohemians 1905 win39%

Draw29%

Baník Ostrava win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Dolicek

Referee · A. Trska

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Bohemians 1905

5-3-2

23 T. Fruhwald

32 P. Mirvald

24 M. Havel

27 D. Lischka

3 M. Kadlec

37 D. Javorcek

47 A. Cermak

42 V. Smrz

16 R. Kvet

9 L. Krobot

99 L. Almasi

Coach · Jaroslav Vesely

Substitutes

12 · M. Reichl

22 · J. Vondra

8 · D. Heidenreich

25 · P. Kareem

18 · D. Vala

15 · M. Banda

19 · J. Kovarik

11 · V. Pilar

62 · S. Obinaya

66 · O. Mikuda

70 · S. Cerny

Baník Ostrava

3-5-2

23 M. Jedlicka

17 M. Frydrych

83 R. Nogha

42 J. Micek

95 D. Holzer

19 F. Sancl

5 J. Boula

18 D. Planka

34 A. Bewene

15 V. Jurecka

22 V. Skrkon

Coach · Roman Skuhravy

Substitutes

1 · V. Budinsky

37 · M. Chalus

3 · R. Smith

81 · M. Kmet

55 · A. Musak

7 · D. Gilbert

21 · M. Kohut

8 · A. Traore

28 · F. Kubala

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Bohemians 1905

5-3-2

23 T. Fruhwald

32 P. Mirvald

24 M. Havel

27 D. Lischka

3 M. Kadlec

37 D. Javorcek

47 A. Cermak

42 V. Smrz

16 R. Kvet

9 L. Krobot

99 L. Almasi

Coach · Jaroslav Vesely

Substitutes

12 · M. Reichl

22 · J. Vondra

8 · D. Heidenreich

25 · P. Kareem

18 · D. Vala

15 · M. Banda

19 · J. Kovarik

11 · V. Pilar

62 · S. Obinaya

66 · O. Mikuda

70 · S. Cerny

Baník Ostrava

3-5-2

23 M. Jedlicka

17 M. Frydrych

83 R. Nogha

42 J. Micek

95 D. Holzer

19 F. Sancl

5 J. Boula

18 D. Planka

34 A. Bewene

15 V. Jurecka

22 V. Skrkon

Coach · Roman Skuhravy

Substitutes

1 · V. Budinsky

37 · M. Chalus

3 · R. Smith

81 · M. Kmet

55 · A. Musak

7 · D. Gilbert

21 · M. Kohut

8 · A. Traore

28 · F. Kubala

Our number · bohemians 1905 winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

39% The market43%

Us39%

~~Market~~43%

We make Bohemians 1905 a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bohemians 1905 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bohemians 1905 win	39%	43%	−4
Draw	29%	26%	+3
Baník Ostrava win	32%	31%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	43%	55%	−12
Both teams to score	49%	59%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	70%	77%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	22%	34%	−11
Bohemians 1905 or draw	68%	69%	−2
Bohemians 1905 clean sheet	32%	–	–
Baník Ostrava clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 9.9 9.5 5.8 2.2 1 10.7 13.6 7.3 2.8 2 7.2 8.1 4.6 3 3.1 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bohemians 1905 down, Baník Ostrava across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,472 Czech Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Czech Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.9% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.90 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Baník Ostrava away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Bohemians 1905, 1.14 for Baník Ostrava. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 16:51. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BAN 0–2 BOH · BOH 1–0 BAN · BAN 1–0 BOH · BOH 2–1 BAN

Form · last six in Czech Liga

BOHEMIANS 1905

WDDLWL2–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–2

BANÍK OSTRAVA

WWLLLD1–0 · 1–0 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	10	+20	26
2	Slovan Liberec	9	+9	20
3	Mlada Boleslav	8	+8	17
4	Sigma Olomouc	9	+3	16
5	Teplice	9	+2	16
6	Zbrojovka Brno	9	0	16
7	Sparta Praha	9	+6	15
8	FK Jablonec	9	+2	14
9	Hradec Králové	9	−1	14
10	Plzen	9	0	10
11	Baník Ostrava	9	−10	10
12	Bohemians 1905	8	−2	9
13	Pardubice	9	−5	8
14	Artis	9	−11	5
15	Slovácko	9	−9	4
16	Zlin	10	−12	1