Baník Ostrava v Sparta Praha prediction · Czech Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Baník Ostrava 0–0 Sparta Praha SPARTA PRAHA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sparta Praha win~~48%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.862

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.958

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sparta Praha win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sparta Praha 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 27–25–48
1′KICK-OFF Baník Ostrava v Sparta Praha
8′Jiri Boula scores for Baník Ostrava on 8′. 0–0 · 27–26–47
9′We said Sparta Praha at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 53–23–24
9′⚽ GOAL · 8' Baník Ostrava 1–0 Sparta Praha · Jiri Boula
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Sparta Praha win: 48% at kick-off, 24% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Baník Ostrava win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Sparta Praha win 24%)
11′GOAL DISALLOWED · 11' Baník Ostrava
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Sparta Praha win: 48% at kick-off, 46% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Sparta Praha win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Baník Ostrava win 27%)
30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Ki-Jana Hoever · Sparta Praha
34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Raymond Roan Nogha · Baník Ostrava
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Sparta Praha win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' John Mercado · Sparta Praha
45′HALF-TIME Baník Ostrava 0–0 Sparta Praha
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sparta Praha · On: Pavel Kadeřábek · Off: Ki-Jana Hoever
46′SECOND HALF Baník Ostrava 0–0 Sparta Praha
50′We said Sparta Praha at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 23–41–36
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Sparta Praha win 36%)
55′We said Sparta Praha at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 22–44–34
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 22–44–34
57′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Roman Macek · Sparta Praha
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Sparta Praha · On: Ebrima Singhateh · Off: Patrik Vydra
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Sparta Praha · On: Matyáš Vojta · Off: Jonatan Braut Brunes
64′We said Sparta Praha at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 19–52–29
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Baník Ostrava · On: Dantaye·Gilbert · Off: Michal Kohút
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Sparta Praha · On: Sivert Heggheim Mannsverk · Off: Roman Macek
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Sparta Praha win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Baník Ostrava · On: Rhodri Smith · Off: Aboubacar Traore
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Sparta Praha · On: Matej Jurasek · Off: Josimar Alcocer
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Ebrima Singhateh · Sparta Praha
76′We said Sparta Praha at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 13–67–19
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Sparta Praha win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Baník Ostrava · On: Matus Kmet · Off: Abdullahi Bewene
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Baník Ostrava · On: Vaclav Jurecka · Off: Filip Kubala
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Baník Ostrava · On: Artur Musak · Off: David Planka
81′We said Sparta Praha at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 10–77–14
85′We said Sparta Praha at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 6–85–9
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Sparta Praha win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
91′We said Sparta Praha at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–93–4
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Martin Suchomel · Sparta Praha
94′We said Sparta Praha at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–0 · 1–97–2
94′Goalless on 94′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 1–97–2
FTFULL TIME Baník Ostrava 0–0 Sparta Praha
FTBaník Ostrava 0–0 Sparta Praha · Sparta Praha win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sparta Praha are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Baník Ostrava 27%, draw 25%, Sparta Praha 48%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Baník Ostrava v Sparta PrahaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Baník Ostrava win27%

Draw25%

Sparta Praha win48%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueMěstský stadion ve Vítkovicích

Line-ups

Baník Ostrava

3-4-2-1

Sparta Praha

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Baník Ostrava

Sparta Praha

8Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · Czech Liga

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Sparta Praha	10	+8	18
13	Baník Ostrava	10	−11	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Baník Ostrava

3-4-2-1

23 M. Jedlička

17 M. Frydrych

83 R. Nogha

42 J. Míček

34 A. Bewene

5 J. Boula

18 D. Planka

8 A. Traoré

21 M. Kohút

28 F. Kubala

22 V. Skrkon

Coach · R. Skuhravý

Substitutes

1 · V. Budinský

37 · M. Chaluš

7 · D. Gilbert

95 · D. Holzer

15 · V. Jurečka

81 · M. Kmeť

55 · Artúr Musák

19 · F. Šancl

3 · Rhodri Smith

Sparta Praha

4-2-3-1

44 J. Surovčík

25 K. Hoever

6 T. Guddal

30 J. Zelený

2 M. Suchomel

38 H. Sochurek

28 R. Macek

17 J. Mercado

26 P. Vydra

7 J. Alcócer

14 J. Braut Brunes

Coach · Brian Priske

Substitutes

47 · K. Hegyi

66 · S. Zajac

29 · M. Vojta

15 · V. Vitályos

27 · E. Singhateh

4 · J. Martinec

20 · S. Mannsverk

3 · P. Kadeřábek

31 · M. Jurásek

18 · A. Irving

5 · Santiago Eneme

Our number · sparta praha winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market57%

Us48%

~~Market~~57%

We make Sparta Praha a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Baník Ostrava v Sparta Praha~~1.18 – 1.66

~~Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 18~~13 v 5

~~The market · Sparta Praha win~~57% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sparta Praha win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Baník Ostrava win	27%	20%	+7
Draw	25%	23%	+2
Sparta Praha win	48%	57%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	54%	59%	−5
Both teams to score	56%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	38%	−6
Baník Ostrava or draw	52%	43%	+9
Baník Ostrava clean sheet	19%	–	–
Sparta Praha clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.5 9.2 8.0 4.5 1 6.4 11.8 9.3 5.2 2.2 2 4.1 6.7 5.5 3.1 3 2.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Baník Ostrava down, Sparta Praha across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,484 Czech Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Czech Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Baník Ostrava at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Sparta Praha away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Baník Ostrava, 1.66 for Sparta Praha. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 13:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SPA 5–2 BAN · BAN 0–3 SPA · BAN 3–2 SPA · BAN 1–1 SPA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Czech Liga this season · since 22 Aug

BANÍK OSTRAVA

WLLLDL1–0 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1

SPARTA PRAHA

WLLWWW4–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	11	+20	27
2	Sigma Olomouc	11	+4	20
3	Slovan Liberec	11	+6	20
4	Mlada Boleslav	11	+5	20
5	Sparta Praha	10	+8	18
6	Teplice	11	+1	17
7	FK Jablonec	10	+3	17
8	Zbrojovka Brno	10	−1	16
9	Bohemians 1905	10	0	15
10	Hradec Králové	11	−3	15
11	Plzen	10	+3	13
12	Pardubice	11	−4	11
13	Baník Ostrava	10	−11	10
14	Artis	10	−9	8
15	Slovácko	10	−7	7
16	Zlin	11	−15	1