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Model 1.2

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Sparta Praha v Baník Ostrava

Sparta Praha
17:30Upcoming
Baník Ostrava

Cup · WED 28 OCT · epet ARENA

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sparta PrahaDrawBaník Ostrava
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:30
Before kick-off · Match result · Sparta Praha 62%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sparta Praha are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sparta Praha 62%, draw 22%, Baník Ostrava 16%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Sparta Praha v Baník OstravaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Sparta Praha win62%
Draw22%
Baník Ostrava win16%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 17:30

RoundRound of 16

Venueepet ARENA

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sparta Praha

Baník Ostrava

6Days since last match10

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 18 Oct · Czech Liga

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sparta praha winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
62% The market–
Us62%

We make Sparta Praha a 62% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sparta Praha v Baník Ostrava2.01 – 0.93
Form · Cup this season · since 26 AugW1 D0 L0 · W1 D1 L0

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sparta Praha win62%––
Draw22%––
Baník Ostrava win16%––
Over 2.5 goals56%––
Both teams to score53%––
Over 1.5 goals79%––
Over 3.5 goals34%––
Sparta Praha or draw84%––
Sparta Praha clean sheet40%––
Baník Ostrava clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.6%
0123450 6.0 4.4 2.3 1 10.1 10.4 4.6 2 10.6 9.7 4.5 3 7.1 6.5 3.0 4 3.6 3.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sparta Praha down, Baník Ostrava across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.57 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsBAN 0–0 SPA · SPA 5–2 BAN · BAN 0–3 SPA · BAN 3–2 SPA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 26 Aug

SPARTA PRAHA

W5–0

BANÍK OSTRAVA

WD9–0 · 1–1