Slovácko v Pardubice prediction · Cup

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SlováckoDrawPardubice

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Slovácko 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Slovácko are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Slovácko 41%, draw 29%, Pardubice 31%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Slovácko v PardubiceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Slovácko win41%

Draw29%

Pardubice win31%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 15:30

RoundRound of 16

VenueMestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Slovácko

Pardubice

10Days since last match11

Last match: 18 Oct · Czech Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · Czech Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · slovácko winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Slovácko a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Slovácko v Pardubice~~1.32 – 1.12

~~Form · Cup this season · since 26 Aug~~W2 D0 L0 · W2 D0 L0

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slovácko win	41%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Pardubice win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Slovácko or draw	69%	–	–
Slovácko clean sheet	33%	–	–
Pardubice clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 9.7 9.0 5.5 2.1 1 10.8 13.5 7.1 2.7 2 7.6 8.4 4.7 3 3.4 3.7 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Slovácko down, Pardubice across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,491 Czech Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Czech Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Slovácko at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Pardubice away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Slovácko, 1.12 for Pardubice. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SLO 0–0 PAR · SLO 2–0 PAR · PAR 1–1 SLO · SLO 1–0 PAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 26 Aug

SLOVÁCKO

WW2–1 · 4–0

PARDUBICE

WW2–0 · 6–0

Slovácko v Pardubice

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

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Rest & schedule

Slovácko

Pardubice

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Cup this season · since 26 Aug