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Vratimov v Pustá Polom

Vratimov
4–3Full time
Pustá Polom

4. liga - Divizie F · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 12:08
Vratimov 4–3 Pustá Polom VRATIMOV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Vratimov win63%
The market said61%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.207
The market’s Brier score0.227

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 45 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Vratimov win at 63%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Vratimov was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 63–20–18
  3. 1′We published Vratimov at 63%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–11–7
  4. 1′KICK-OFF Vratimov v Pustá Polom
  5. 1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Vratimov 1–0 Pustá Polom
  6. 1′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 1' Vratimov win: 63% at kick-off, 82% now
  7. 5′We published Vratimov at 63%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–2
  8. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Vratimov 2–0 Pustá Polom
  9. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Vratimov win: 63% at kick-off, 93% now
  10. 6′GOAL DISALLOWED · 6' Vratimov
  11. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Vratimov win: 63% at kick-off, 82% now
  12. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Vratimov 2–0 Pustá Polom
  13. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Vratimov win: 63% at kick-off, 94% now
  14. 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Vratimov 2–1 Pustá Polom
  15. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Vratimov win: 63% at kick-off, 82% now
  16. 33′We published Vratimov at 63%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
  17. 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Vratimov 3–1 Pustá Polom
  18. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Vratimov win: 63% at kick-off, 95% now
  19. 34′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 95–4–1
  20. 45′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 99–1–0
  21. 45′We said Vratimov at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 50%. 0–0 · 50–32–18 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  22. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Vratimov 4–1 Pustá Polom
  23. 45′HALF-TIME Vratimov 4–1 Pustá Polom
  24. 46′We said Vratimov at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–33–18 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  25. 46′SECOND HALF Vratimov 4–1 Pustá Polom
  26. 53′6 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 96–3–1
  27. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Vratimov 4–2 Pustá Polom
  28. 55′We expected about 3.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 45–38–17
  29. 57′We said Vratimov at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–40–17
  30. 61′GOAL DISALLOWED · 61' Vratimov
  31. 61′GOAL DISALLOWED · 61' Pustá Polom
  32. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Vratimov win: 63% at kick-off, 41% now
  33. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Vratimov 4–2 Pustá Polom
  34. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Vratimov win: 63% at kick-off, 97% now
  35. 63′We said Vratimov at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–45–16
  36. 63′GOAL DISALLOWED · 63' Vratimov
  37. 63′GOAL DISALLOWED · 63' Pustá Polom
  38. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Vratimov win: 63% at kick-off, 39% now
  39. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Vratimov win 39%)
  40. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Vratimov 4–2 Pustá Polom
  41. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Vratimov win: 63% at kick-off, 98% now
  42. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Vratimov win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
  43. 68′GOAL DISALLOWED · 68' Vratimov
  44. 68′GOAL DISALLOWED · 68' Pustá Polom
  45. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Vratimov win: 63% at kick-off, 35% now
  46. 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Vratimov win 35%)
  47. 69′We said Vratimov at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–52–14
  48. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Vratimov 4–2 Pustá Polom
  49. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Vratimov win: 63% at kick-off, 98% now
  50. 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Vratimov win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
  51. 70′GOAL DISALLOWED · 70' Vratimov
  52. 70′GOAL DISALLOWED · 70' Pustá Polom
  53. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Vratimov win: 63% at kick-off, 33% now
  54. 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Vratimov win 33%)
  55. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Vratimov 4–2 Pustá Polom
  56. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Vratimov win: 63% at kick-off, 98% now
  57. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Vratimov win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 1%)
  58. 74′We said Vratimov at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–59–12
  59. 77′We said Vratimov at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–65–11
  60. 81′We published Vratimov at 63%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  61. 82′We said Vratimov at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–0 · 17–76–8 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  62. 84′We said Vratimov at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–81–6 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  63. 92′That is 7, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 4–3 · 98–2–0
  64. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Vratimov 4–3 Pustá Polom
  65. FTFULL TIME Vratimov 4–3 Pustá Polom
  66. FTVratimov 4–3 Pustá Polom · Vratimov win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vratimov are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vratimov 63%, draw 20%, Pustá Polom 18%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Vratimov v Pustá PolomBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Vratimov win63%
Draw20%
Pustá Polom win18%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 09:15

RoundGroup F · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vratimov

Pustá Polom

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie F

Last match: 11 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie F

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Vratimov10+621
11Pustá Polom10−511

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vratimov winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off
63% The market61%
Us63%
Market61%

We make Vratimov a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Vratimov v Pustá Polom2.27 – 1.10
Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie F this season · since 5 SeptW4 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 21 v 113 v 11
The market · Vratimov win61% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 08:36
Our probability · Vratimov win The market, margin stripped

Published at 64%, 63% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Vratimov win63%61%+2
Draw20%21%−1
Pustá Polom win18%18%0
Over 2.5 goals65%67%−2
Both teams to score59%62%−3
Over 1.5 goals84%79%+5
Over 3.5 goals43%47%−4
Vratimov or draw82%82%0
Vratimov clean sheet34%––
Pustá Polom clean sheet11%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.3%
0123450 4.0 3.8 2.2 1 7.8 8.7 4.7 2 8.8 9.3 5.1 3 6.6 6.9 3.8 4 3.8 4.0 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Vratimov down, Pustá Polom across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25
Goals a meeting3.25
Over 2.53 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsPUS 0–2 VRA · VRA 3–2 PUS · PUS 3–0 VRA · VRA 3–0 PUS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie F this season · since 5 Sept

VRATIMOV

WLWWWL2–1 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

PUSTÁ POLOM

WLLWLD1–0 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Bospor Bohumín10+2327
2Kravare11+1526
3Vratimov10+621
4Hlučín11+520
5Stonava10+517
6Opava II10+316
7Jiskra Rýmařov10+414
8Nový Jičín10−314
9Valašské Meziříčí10+413
10Zabreh10−112
11Pustá Polom10−511
12Břidličná10−810
13Šumperk10−39
14Frydek-Mistek B10−69
15Bílovec10−128
16Frýdlant10−273

The competition's standings before kick-off.