Pustá Polom v Šumperk prediction · 4. liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04

Pustá Polom 2–2 Šumperk PUSTÁ POLOM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pustá Polom win~~40%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.840

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.825

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pustá Polom win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Pustá Polom was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–35
1′KICK-OFF Pustá Polom v Šumperk
3′Much as we predicted: Pustá Polom was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–34
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Pustá Polom 0–1 Šumperk
43′We said Pustá Polom at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–23–67
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Pustá Polom win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Šumperk win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Pustá Polom win 10%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Pustá Polom win: 40% at kick-off, 38% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Pustá Polom win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Šumperk win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Pustá Polom 0–1 Šumperk
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Pustá Polom 0–1 Šumperk
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Pustá Polom win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Šumperk win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Pustá Polom win 10%)
46′SECOND HALF Pustá Polom 0–1 Šumperk
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Pustá Polom 1–1 Šumperk
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Pustá Polom 2–1 Šumperk
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Pustá Polom 2–1 Šumperk
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Pustá Polom 2–1 Šumperk
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Pustá Polom 2–1 Šumperk
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Pustá Polom 2–1 Šumperk
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Pustá Polom 2–1 Šumperk
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Pustá Polom 2–1 Šumperk
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Pustá Polom 2–1 Šumperk
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Pustá Polom 2–1 Šumperk
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Pustá Polom 2–2 Šumperk
FTFULL TIME Pustá Polom 2–2 Šumperk
FTPustá Polom 2–2 Šumperk · Pustá Polom win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Pustá Polom win40%

Draw25%

Šumperk win35%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Pustá Polom

Šumperk

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Pustá Polom	9	−5	10
14	Šumperk	9	−3	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pustá polom winPublished 11 Oct 13:43

40% The market35%

Us40%

~~Market~~35%

We make Pustá Polom a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · pustá polom win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pustá Polom win	40%	35%	+5
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Šumperk win	35%	40%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	53%	61%	−8
Both teams to score	56%	64%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	40%	−9
Pustá Polom or draw	65%	60%	+5
Pustá Polom clean sheet	27%	–	–
Šumperk clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.6 8.1 5.5 2.5 1 8.8 11.6 7.7 3.5 2 6.5 8.3 5.5 2.5 3 3.2 4.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pustá Polom down, Šumperk across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,159 4. liga - Divizie F matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

4. liga - Divizie F matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.9% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pustá Polom at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Šumperk away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Pustá Polom, 1.35 for Šumperk. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PUS 0–1 SUM · SUM 3–0 PUS

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie F

PUSTÁ POLOM

LWLLWL1–4 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 3–2 · 1–2

ŠUMPERK

WLLLLD5–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kravare	10	+15	25
2	Bospor Bohumín	9	+22	24
3	Vratimov	9	+7	21
4	Hlučín	10	+5	19
5	Stonava	10	+5	17
6	Opava II	10	+3	16
7	Jiskra Rýmařov	10	+4	14
8	Nový Jičín	10	−3	14
9	Valašské Meziříčí	9	+4	12
10	Zabreh	9	−1	11
11	Pustá Polom	9	−5	10
12	Břidličná	10	−8	10
13	Frydek-Mistek B	9	−5	9
14	Šumperk	9	−3	8
15	Bílovec	9	−13	5
16	Frýdlant	10	−27	3