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Nový Jičín v Kravare

Nový Jičín

0–4Full time

Kravare

4. liga - Divizie F · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:06

Nový Jičín 0–4 Kravare KRAVARE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kravare win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.478

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kravare win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kravare was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 33–23–44
1′KICK-OFF Nový Jičín v Kravare
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Nový Jičín 0–1 Kravare
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Nový Jičín 0–1 Kravare
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Nový Jičín 0–1 Kravare
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Nový Jičín 0–1 Kravare
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Nový Jičín 0–1 Kravare
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Nový Jičín 0–1 Kravare
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Nový Jičín 0–1 Kravare
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Nový Jičín 0–1 Kravare
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Nový Jičín 0–1 Kravare
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Nový Jičín 0–1 Kravare
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Nový Jičín 0–2 Kravare
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Nový Jičín 0–3 Kravare
41′We published Kravare at 44%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–3 · 0–2–98
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Kravare win: 44% at kick-off, 98% now
45′HALF-TIME Nový Jičín 0–0 Kravare
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Nový Jičín 0–3 Kravare
47′SECOND HALF Nový Jičín 0–3 Kravare
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Nový Jičín 0–3 Kravare
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Nový Jičín 0–3 Kravare
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Nový Jičín 0–3 Kravare
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Nový Jičín 0–4 Kravare
84′We said Kravare at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 0–0 · 9–81–10
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Kravare win: 44% at kick-off, 10% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Kravare win 10%)
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Nový Jičín 0–4 Kravare
FTFULL TIME Nový Jičín 0–4 Kravare
FTNový Jičín 0–4 Kravare · Kravare win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Nový Jičín win33%

Draw23%

Kravare win44%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kravare winPublished 10 Oct 13:47

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Kravare a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nový Jičín win	33%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Kravare win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Nový Jičín or draw	56%	–	–
Nový Jičín clean sheet	18%	–	–
Kravare clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.2 6.7 5.9 3.5 1 5.7 9.9 8.5 5.1 2.3 2 4.3 7.3 6.3 3.8 3 2.2 3.7 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nový Jičín down, Kravare across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,155 4. liga - Divizie F matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

4. liga - Divizie F matches have gone over 2.5 in 77.8% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Nový Jičín at home: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kravare away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Nový Jičín, 1.77 for Kravare. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie F

NOVÝ JIČÍN

WLWWLD1–0 · 2–4 · 4–2 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 1–1

KRAVARE

WWLDWW3–0 · 1–0 · 1–5 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bospor Bohumín	9	+22	24
2	Kravare	9	+11	22
3	Vratimov	9	+7	21
4	Hlučín	9	+8	19
5	Stonava	9	+8	17
6	Jiskra Rýmařov	9	+5	14
7	Nový Jičín	9	+1	14
8	Opava II	9	0	13
9	Valašské Meziříčí	9	+4	12
10	Zabreh	9	−1	11
11	Pustá Polom	9	−5	10
12	Frydek-Mistek B	9	−5	9
13	Šumperk	9	−3	8
14	Břidličná	9	−9	7
15	Bílovec	9	−13	5
16	Frýdlant	9	−30	0