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Frýdlant v Hlučín

Frýdlant
3–0Full time
Hlučín

4. liga - Divizie F · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:06
Frýdlant 3–0 Hlučín HLUČÍN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Hlučín win65%
The market said77%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.113
The market’s Brier score1.422

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hlučín win at 65%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Hlučín was 65% before kick-off and our model makes it 66% now. 0–0 · 17–17–66
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Frýdlant v Hlučín
  4. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Frýdlant 1–0 Hlučín
  5. 9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Frýdlant 1–0 Hlučín
  6. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Frýdlant 1–0 Hlučín
  7. 14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Frýdlant 1–0 Hlučín
  8. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Frýdlant 1–0 Hlučín
  9. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Frýdlant 1–0 Hlučín
  10. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Frýdlant 1–0 Hlučín
  11. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Frýdlant 1–0 Hlučín
  12. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Frýdlant 1–0 Hlučín
  13. 21′We said Hlučín at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 1–0 · 39–23–38
  14. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Hlučín win: 65% at kick-off, 38% now
  15. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Frýdlant 2–0 Hlučín
  16. 42′We said Hlučín at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 2–0 · 72–17–11
  17. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Hlučín win: 65% at kick-off, 11% now
  18. 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Frýdlant win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Hlučín win 11%)
  19. 45′Goals are coming at about the 4.1 we expected. 2–0 · 74–16–10
  20. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Frýdlant 2–0 Hlučín
  21. 45′HALF-TIME Frýdlant 2–0 Hlučín
  22. 46′SECOND HALF Frýdlant 2–0 Hlučín
  23. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Frýdlant 2–0 Hlučín
  24. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Frýdlant 2–0 Hlučín
  25. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Frýdlant 2–0 Hlučín
  26. 60′We said Hlučín at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 83–12–4
  27. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Hlučín win: 65% at kick-off, 4% now
  28. 80′We said Hlučín at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 11–67–23
  29. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Hlučín win: 65% at kick-off, 23% now
  30. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Frýdlant win 11%)
  31. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Frýdlant 2–0 Hlučín
  32. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Frýdlant 3–0 Hlučín
  33. FTFULL TIME Frýdlant 3–0 Hlučín
  34. FTFrýdlant 3–0 Hlučín · Hlučín win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Frýdlant win18%
Draw17%
Hlučín win65%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hlučín winPublished 10 Oct 13:47
65% The market77%
Us65%
Market77%

We make Hlučín a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–2.7.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70%75%80%85% 9 OCT 06:1810 OCT 13:17
Our probability · hlučín win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 77% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Frýdlant win18%10%+9
Draw17%14%+3
Hlučín win65%77%−12
Over 2.5 goals75%76%−1
Both teams to score67%59%+8
Over 1.5 goals90%81%+9
Over 3.5 goals56%58%−2
Frýdlant or draw35%23%+12
Frýdlant clean sheet8%––
Hlučín clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.2%
0123450 2.2 5.0 6.3 5.5 3.7 2.21 2.7 6.7 8.2 7.0 4.7 2.72 4.4 5.5 4.6 3.1 3 2.0 2.5 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Frýdlant down, Hlučín across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie F

FRÝDLANT

LLLLLL1–5 · 1–2 · 2–5 · 1–5 · 0–6 · 1–4

HLUČÍN

WWWWLD2–1 · 1–0 · 5–2 · 4–1 · 1–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Bospor Bohumín9+2224
2Kravare9+1122
3Vratimov9+721
4Hlučín9+819
5Stonava9+817
6Jiskra Rýmařov9+514
7Nový Jičín9+114
8Opava II9013
9Valašské Meziříčí9+412
10Zabreh9−111
11Pustá Polom9−510
12Frydek-Mistek B9−59
13Šumperk9−38
14Břidličná9−97
15Bílovec9−135
16Frýdlant9−300

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.