Bílovec v Vratimov prediction · 4. liga - Divizie F

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04

Bílovec 2–1 Vratimov VRATIMOV WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vratimov win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.714

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vratimov win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Vratimov 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 32–24–44
1′KICK-OFF Bílovec v Vratimov
4′Little has changed for our model: Vratimov 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 31–25–44
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Bílovec 1–0 Vratimov
45′HALF-TIME Bílovec 1–0 Vratimov
46′SECOND HALF Bílovec 1–0 Vratimov
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Bílovec 2–0 Vratimov
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Bílovec 2–1 Vratimov
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Bílovec 2–1 Vratimov
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Bílovec 2–1 Vratimov
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Bílovec 2–1 Vratimov
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Bílovec 2–1 Vratimov
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Bílovec 2–1 Vratimov
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Bílovec 2–1 Vratimov
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Bílovec 2–1 Vratimov
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Bílovec 2–1 Vratimov
FTFULL TIME Bílovec 2–1 Vratimov
FTBílovec 2–1 Vratimov · Vratimov win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Bílovec win32%

Draw24%

Vratimov win44%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bílovec

Vratimov

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Vratimov	9	+7	21
15	Bílovec	9	−13	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vratimov winPublished 11 Oct 13:43

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Vratimov a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bílovec win	32%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Vratimov win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Bílovec or draw	56%	–	–
Bílovec clean sheet	20%	–	–
Vratimov clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.7 8.4 6.8 3.8 1 6.8 10.9 8.6 4.7 2.0 2 4.7 7.2 5.7 3.1 3 2.2 3.4 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bílovec down, Vratimov across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,159 4. liga - Divizie F matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

4. liga - Divizie F matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.9% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bílovec at home: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Vratimov away: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Bílovec, 1.63 for Vratimov. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~VRA 2–2 BIL · BIL 1–0 VRA · BIL 0–1 VRA · VRA 1–0 BIL

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie F

BÍLOVEC

LLWLLD1–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–1

VRATIMOV

WWLWWW3–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kravare	10	+15	25
2	Bospor Bohumín	9	+22	24
3	Vratimov	9	+7	21
4	Hlučín	10	+5	19
5	Stonava	10	+5	17
6	Opava II	10	+3	16
7	Jiskra Rýmařov	10	+4	14
8	Nový Jičín	10	−3	14
9	Valašské Meziříčí	9	+4	12
10	Zabreh	9	−1	11
11	Pustá Polom	9	−5	10
12	Břidličná	10	−8	10
13	Frydek-Mistek B	9	−5	9
14	Šumperk	9	−3	8
15	Bílovec	9	−13	5
16	Frýdlant	10	−27	3