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Šternberk v SK Krumvir

Šternberk
4–3Full time
SK Krumvir

4. liga - Divizie E · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:06
Šternberk 4–3 SK Krumvir ŠTERNBERK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Šternberk win38%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.575
The market’s Brier score0.626

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Šternberk win at 38%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Šternberk was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–25–37
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Šternberk v SK Krumvir
  4. 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Šternberk 1–0 SK Krumvir
  5. 6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Šternberk 1–0 SK Krumvir
  6. 9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Šternberk 1–0 SK Krumvir
  7. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Šternberk 1–1 SK Krumvir
  8. 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Šternberk 1–1 SK Krumvir
  9. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Šternberk 1–1 SK Krumvir
  10. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Šternberk 1–1 SK Krumvir
  11. 14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Šternberk 1–1 SK Krumvir
  12. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Šternberk 1–1 SK Krumvir
  13. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Šternberk 1–1 SK Krumvir
  14. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Šternberk 2–1 SK Krumvir
  15. 39′We published Šternberk at 38%. Our model now makes it 68%. 2–1 · 68–22–11
  16. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Šternberk win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
  17. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Šternberk 2–1 SK Krumvir
  18. 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Šternberk 2–1 SK Krumvir
  19. 45′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 69–22–9
  20. 45′HALF-TIME Šternberk 2–1 SK Krumvir
  21. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Šternberk 2–1 SK Krumvir
  22. 46′SECOND HALF Šternberk 2–1 SK Krumvir
  23. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Šternberk 2–1 SK Krumvir
  24. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Šternberk 2–1 SK Krumvir
  25. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Šternberk 2–2 SK Krumvir
  26. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Šternberk 3–2 SK Krumvir
  27. 60′We published Šternberk at 38%. Our model now makes it 74%. 3–2 · 74–20–6
  28. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Šternberk 3–3 SK Krumvir
  29. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Šternberk 4–3 SK Krumvir
  30. 80′We said Šternberk at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–74–13
  31. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Šternberk win: 38% at kick-off, 13% now
  32. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Šternberk win 13%)
  33. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Šternberk 4–3 SK Krumvir
  34. FTFULL TIME Šternberk 4–3 SK Krumvir
  35. FTŠternberk 4–3 SK Krumvir · Šternberk win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Šternberk win38%
Draw25%
SK Krumvir win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · šternberk winPublished 10 Oct 13:47
38% The market36%
Us38%
Market36%

We make Šternberk a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 9 OCT 06:1810 OCT 11:17
Our probability · šternberk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Šternberk win38%36%+3
Draw25%26%−1
SK Krumvir win37%38%−1
Over 2.5 goals57%61%−4
Both teams to score59%64%−4
Over 1.5 goals79%81%−2
Over 3.5 goals35%40%−5
Šternberk or draw63%62%+1
Šternberk clean sheet24%––
SK Krumvir clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%
0123450 5.7 7.3 5.5 2.7 1 7.5 11.4 8.0 4.0 2 5.8 8.2 6.0 2.9 3 3.0 4.2 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Šternberk down, SK Krumvir across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie E

ŠTERNBERK

WWLLWW4–1 · 6–0 · 1–3 · 1–6 · 1–0 · 3–1

SK KRUMVIR

LWWWLD0–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Tatran Všechovice9+2224
2Strání9+2122
3Kozlovice9+1521
4SK Krumvir9+319
5Sokol Lanžhot9+418
6Břeclav9+515
7Hluk9+914
8Šternberk9+213
9Slavičín9+113
10Prostejov B9−112
11Holešov9+110
12Brumov9−147
13Bzenec9−156
14Kroměříž II9−105
15Nové Sady9−244
16Baťov9−190

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.