Šternberk v Kroměříž II prediction · 4. liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Šternberk 2–2 Kroměříž II ŠTERNBERK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Šternberk win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.008

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Šternberk are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Šternberk 60%, draw 22%, Kroměříž II 19%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Šternberk v Kroměříž IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Šternberk win60%

Draw22%

Kroměříž II win19%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup E · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Šternberk

Kroměříž II

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie E

Last match: 11 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie E

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Šternberk	10	+3	16
14	Kroměříž II	10	−12	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · šternberk winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Šternberk a 60% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Šternberk v Kroměříž II~~2.03 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie E this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 16 v 5~~6 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Šternberk win	60%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Kroměříž II win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Šternberk or draw	81%	–	–
Šternberk clean sheet	37%	–	–
Kroměříž II clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 5.4 4.8 2.6 1 9.5 10.0 5.0 2 9.6 9.5 4.9 3 6.5 6.4 3.2 4 3.4 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Šternberk down, Kroměříž II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,104 4. liga - Divizie E matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie E matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.8% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Šternberk at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Kroměříž II away: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for Šternberk, 1.02 for Kroměříž II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KRO 2–5 STE · STE 1–2 KRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie E this season · since 5 Sept

ŠTERNBERK

WLLWWW6–0 · 1–3 · 1–6 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 4–3

KROMĚŘÍŽ II

LWDLLL2–3 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tatran Všechovice	10	+29	27
2	Strání	10	+23	25
3	Kozlovice	10	+18	24
4	Sokol Lanžhot	10	+5	21
5	SK Krumvir	10	+2	19
6	Šternberk	10	+3	16
7	Slavičín	10	+3	16
8	Břeclav	10	+4	15
9	Prostejov B	10	+1	15
10	Hluk	10	+6	14
11	Holešov	10	+2	13
12	Brumov	10	−16	7
13	Bzenec	10	−17	6
14	Kroměříž II	10	−12	5
15	Nové Sady	10	−25	4
16	Baťov	10	−26	0