Slavičín v Holešov prediction · 4. liga - Divizie E

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 12:06

Slavičín 2–0 Holešov SLAVIČÍN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Slavičín win~~50%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.381

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.386

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Slavičín win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Slavičín 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–22–28
1′KICK-OFF Slavičín v Holešov
2′We said Slavičín at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–1 · 28–21–51
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Slavičín 0–1 Holešov
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Slavičín win: 50% at kick-off, 28% now
2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Holešov win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Slavičín win 28%)
3′GOAL DISALLOWED · 3' Holešov
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Slavičín win: 50% at kick-off, 49% now
3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Slavičín win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Holešov win 28%)
17′We said Slavičín at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–16–11
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Slavičín 1–0 Holešov
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Slavičín win: 50% at kick-off, 72% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 73–17–10
45′HALF-TIME Slavičín 1–0 Holešov
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Slavičín
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Slavičín win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Slavičín 1–0 Holešov
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Slavičín win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
46′We said Slavičín at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
46′SECOND HALF Slavičín 1–0 Holešov
49′We said Slavičín at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–1
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Slavičín 2–0 Holešov
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Slavičín win: 50% at kick-off, 93% now
57′We said Slavičín at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
83′We said Slavičín at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Slavičín win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
FTFULL TIME Slavičín 2–0 Holešov
FTSlavičín 2–0 Holešov · Slavičín win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Slavičín are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Slavičín 50%, draw 22%, Holešov 28%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Slavičín v HolešovBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Slavičín win50%

Draw22%

Holešov win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 09:15

RoundGroup E · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Slavičín

Holešov

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie E

Last match: 10 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie E

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Slavičín	10	+3	16
11	Holešov	10	+2	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · slavičín winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 03:59 · locked at kick-off

50% The market49%

Us50%

~~Market~~49%

We make Slavičín a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Slavičín v Holešov~~1.94 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie E this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 13~~8 v 11

~~The market · Slavičín win~~49% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Slavičín win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slavičín win	50%	49%	+1
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Holešov win	28%	26%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	64%	61%	+3
Both teams to score	64%	61%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	84%	78%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	43%	41%	+2
Slavičín or draw	72%	74%	−2
Slavičín clean sheet	25%	–	–
Holešov clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.1 4.9 3.6 1 6.7 9.7 6.6 3.1 2 6.6 9.0 6.2 3.0 3 4.3 5.8 4.0 4 2.1 2.9 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Slavičín down, Holešov across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,109 4. liga - Divizie E matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie E matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.9% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Slavičín at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Holešov away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Slavičín, 1.40 for Holešov. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HOL 1–3 SLA · SLA 1–1 HOL · HOL 1–3 SLA · HOL 3–1 SLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie E this season · since 5 Sept

SLAVIČÍN

LWDLWW1–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 3–1

HOLEŠOV

LLDDLW0–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 4–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tatran Všechovice	10	+29	27
2	Strání	11	+21	25
3	Kozlovice	11	+15	24
4	SK Krumvir	11	+5	22
5	Sokol Lanžhot	10	+5	21
6	Prostejov B	11	+3	18
7	Šternberk	11	+3	17
8	Slavičín	10	+3	16
9	Břeclav	11	+2	15
10	Hluk	10	+6	14
11	Holešov	10	+2	13
12	Bzenec	11	−10	9
13	Brumov	10	−16	7
14	Nové Sady	11	−23	7
15	Kroměříž II	11	−12	6
16	Baťov	11	−33	0