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SK Krumvir v Kozlovice

SK Krumvir
3–0Full time
Kozlovice

4. liga - Divizie E · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26
SK Krumvir 3–0 Kozlovice KOZLOVICE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Kozlovice win50%
The market said45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.826
The market’s Brier score0.758

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Kozlovice win at 50%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Kozlovice 50% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 27–23–49
  3. 1′KICK-OFF SK Krumvir v Kozlovice
  4. 15′We said Kozlovice at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 1–0 · 53–23–25
  5. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' SK Krumvir 1–0 Kozlovice
  6. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Kozlovice win: 50% at kick-off, 25% now
  7. 15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' SK Krumvir win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Kozlovice win 25%)
  8. 16′We said Kozlovice at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 53–23–24
  9. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Kozlovice win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 56–24–20
  11. 32′We said Kozlovice at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 56–24–19
  12. 42′We said Kozlovice at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 2–0 · 84–11–5
  13. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' SK Krumvir 2–0 Kozlovice
  14. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Kozlovice win: 50% at kick-off, 5% now
  15. 44′We said Kozlovice at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 85–11–4
  16. 45′HALF-TIME SK Krumvir 2–0 Kozlovice
  17. 46′SECOND HALF SK Krumvir 2–0 Kozlovice
  18. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' SK Krumvir 3–0 Kozlovice
  19. 55′We said Kozlovice at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 23–41–36 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  20. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Kozlovice win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
  21. 56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 3.2 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 23–42–35 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  22. 60′We said Kozlovice at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 22–45–33 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  23. 80′We said Kozlovice at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  24. 81′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  25. FTFULL TIME SK Krumvir 3–0 Kozlovice
  26. FTSK Krumvir 3–0 Kozlovice · Kozlovice win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kozlovice are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SK Krumvir 27%, draw 23%, Kozlovice 50%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on SK Krumvir v KozloviceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

SK Krumvir win27%
Draw23%
Kozlovice win50%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup E · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SK Krumvir

Kozlovice

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie E

Last match: 10 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie E

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Kozlovice10+1824
5SK Krumvir10+219

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kozlovice winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:22 · locked at kick-off
50% The market45%
Us50%
Market45%

We make Kozlovice a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · SK Krumvir v Kozlovice1.32 – 1.86
Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie E this season · since 5 SeptW3 D1 L2 · W4 D2 L0
Table places · points 19 v 245 v 3
The market · Kozlovice win45% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 12:51
Our probability · Kozlovice win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
SK Krumvir win27%30%−3
Draw23%25%−2
Kozlovice win50%45%+5
Over 2.5 goals61%61%0
Both teams to score61%63%−2
Over 1.5 goals82%81%+1
Over 3.5 goals39%40%−1
SK Krumvir or draw50%55%−5
SK Krumvir clean sheet16%––
Kozlovice clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%
0123450 4.8 7.7 7.2 4.5 2.1 1 5.4 10.4 9.1 5.6 2.7 2 3.7 6.6 5.9 3.7 3 3.0 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+SK Krumvir down, Kozlovice across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie E this season · since 5 Sept

SK KRUMVIR

WWWLDL1–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 0–0 · 3–4

KOZLOVICE

WWWDDW4–1 · 3–2 · 5–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Tatran Všechovice10+2927
2Strání10+2325
3Kozlovice10+1824
4Sokol Lanžhot10+521
5SK Krumvir10+219
6Šternberk10+316
7Slavičín10+316
8Břeclav10+415
9Prostejov B10+115
10Hluk10+614
11Holešov10+213
12Brumov10−167
13Bzenec10−176
14Kroměříž II10−125
15Nové Sady10−254
16Baťov10−260

The competition's standings before kick-off.