Baťov v Strání prediction · 4. liga - Divizie E

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:01

Baťov 0–6 Strání STRÁNÍ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Strání win~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.097

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Strání win at 75%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Strání 75% before kick-off, 74% now. 0–0 · 12–14–74
1′KICK-OFF Baťov v Strání
18′We said Strání at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 0–1 · 4–8–87
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Baťov 0–1 Strání
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Strání win: 75% at kick-off, 87% now
45′We said Strání at 75%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 61%. 0–0 · 14–25–61 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
45′HALF-TIME Baťov 0–1 Strání
46′We said Strání at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 0–2 · 1–3–97
46′SECOND HALF Baťov 0–2 Strání
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Baťov 0–2 Strání
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Strání win: 75% at kick-off, 97% now
47′The goal count is tracking the 4.4 we expected. 0–2 · 1–3–97
58′We said Strání at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Baťov 0–3 Strání
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Baťov 0–4 Strání
73′5 goals already, more than the 4.4 we expected for the whole match. 0–5 · 0–0–100
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Baťov 0–5 Strání
88′We said Strání at 75%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 4–83–13
88′GOAL DISALLOWED · 88' Strání
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Strání win: 75% at kick-off, 13% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Strání win over 99%)
89′That is 6, and we only asked for 4.4 across ninety minutes. 0–6 · 0–0–100
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Baťov 0–5 Strání
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Strání win: 75% at kick-off, over 99% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Strání win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Draw 83%)
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Baťov 0–6 Strání
FTFULL TIME Baťov 0–6 Strání
FTBaťov 0–6 Strání · Strání win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Strání are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Baťov 12%, draw 14%, Strání 75%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Baťov v StráníBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Baťov win12%

Draw14%

Strání win75%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:30

RoundGroup E · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Baťov

Strání

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie E

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Strání	11	+21	25
16	Baťov	11	−33	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · strání winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

75% The market–

Us75%

We make Strání a 75% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–3.2, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Baťov v Strání~~1.18 – 3.21

~~Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie E this season · since 11 Sept~~W0 D0 L6 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 0 v 25~~16 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Strání win

Published at 74%, 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Baťov win	12%	–	–
Draw	14%	–	–
Strání win	75%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	80%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	62%	–	–
Baťov or draw	25%	–	–
Baťov clean sheet	5%	–	–
Strání clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.4%

0123450 4.2 6.4 6.4 5.1 3.41 5.3 7.4 7.4 5.7 3.82 3.1 4.4 4.4 3.4 2.23 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Baťov down, Strání across0–5 goals a side shown (87.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,112 4. liga - Divizie E matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 4. liga - Divizie E matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.6% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.75 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Baťov at home: 1.67 scored, 3.33 conceded a game (last 6). Strání away: 2.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Baťov, 3.21 for Strání. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~STR 3–1 BAT · BAT 0–4 STR · STR 4–0 BAT · BAT 1–2 STR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie E this season · since 11 Sept

BAŤOV

LLLLLL2–3 · 0–1 · 3–5 · 2–4 · 0–7 · 0–7

STRÁNÍ

WWWLWL4–3 · 6–3 · 5–0 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tatran Všechovice	11	+32	30
2	Strání	11	+21	25
3	Kozlovice	11	+15	24
4	SK Krumvir	11	+5	22
5	Sokol Lanžhot	11	+5	22
6	Slavičín	11	+5	19
7	Prostejov B	11	+3	18
8	Šternberk	11	+3	17
9	Hluk	11	+6	15
10	Břeclav	11	+2	15
11	Holešov	11	0	13
12	Bzenec	11	−10	9
13	Brumov	11	−19	7
14	Nové Sady	11	−23	7
15	Kroměříž II	11	−12	6
16	Baťov	11	−33	0