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Model 1.2

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Velká Bíteš v Kuřim

Velká Bíteš
1–3Full time
Kuřim

4. liga - Divizie D · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04
Velká Bíteš 1–3 Kuřim KUŘIM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Kuřim win47%
The market said38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.432
The market’s Brier score0.583

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Kuřim win at 47%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Kuřim 47% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 31–23–46
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Velká Bíteš v Kuřim
  4. 29′We said Kuřim at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 11–18–71
  5. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Velká Bíteš 0–1 Kuřim
  6. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Kuřim win: 47% at kick-off, 71% now
  7. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 11–18–71
  8. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Velká Bíteš 1–1 Kuřim
  9. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Kuřim win: 47% at kick-off, 42% now
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Velká Bíteš 1–1 Kuřim
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Velká Bíteš 1–1 Kuřim
  12. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Kuřim win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
  13. 48′GOAL DISALLOWED · 48' Velká Bíteš
  14. 48′GOAL DISALLOWED · 48' Kuřim
  15. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Velká Bíteš 1–1 Kuřim
  16. 54′We said Kuřim at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 26–39–35
  17. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Kuřim win 35%)
  18. 56′We said Kuřim at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 25–40–34
  19. 57′Goalless on 57′ when we expected about 3.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 25–41–34 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  20. 66′We said Kuřim at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 22–49–29
  21. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Kuřim win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
  22. 72′We said Kuřim at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–2 · 3–16–81
  23. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Velká Bíteš 1–2 Kuřim
  24. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Kuřim win: 47% at kick-off, 81% now
  25. 72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Kuřim win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 16%)
  26. 77′We said Kuřim at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 1–1 · 15–65–20
  27. 77′We said Kuřim at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
  28. 77′GOAL DISALLOWED · 77' Kuřim
  29. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Kuřim win: 47% at kick-off, 20% now
  30. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Kuřim win 20%)
  31. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Velká Bíteš 1–2 Kuřim
  32. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Kuřim win: 47% at kick-off, 85% now
  33. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Kuřim win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 14%)
  34. 78′We said Kuřim at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 1–3 · 0–1–99
  35. 78′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–1–99
  36. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Velká Bíteš 1–3 Kuřim
  37. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Kuřim win: 47% at kick-off, 99% now
  38. 84′We said Kuřim at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  39. FTFULL TIME Velká Bíteš 1–3 Kuřim
  40. FTVelká Bíteš 1–3 Kuřim · Kuřim win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kuřim are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Velká Bíteš 31%, draw 23%, Kuřim 47%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Velká Bíteš v KuřimBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Velká Bíteš win31%
Draw23%
Kuřim win47%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup D · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Velká Bíteš

Kuřim

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie D

Last match: 10 Oct · 4. liga - Divizie D

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Velká Bíteš10+821
5Kuřim10+2519

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kuřim winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
47% The market38%
Us47%
Market38%

We make Kuřim a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Velká Bíteš v Kuřim1.49 – 1.89
Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie D this season · since 5 SeptW4 D2 L0 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 21 v 193 v 5
The market · Kuřim win38% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 12 OCT 04:0118 OCT 13:14
Our probability · Kuřim win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Velká Bíteš win31%36%−5
Draw23%26%−3
Kuřim win47%38%+9
Over 2.5 goals65%60%+5
Both teams to score65%62%+3
Over 1.5 goals85%80%+5
Over 3.5 goals43%39%+4
Velká Bíteš or draw53%62%−9
Velká Bíteš clean sheet16%––
Kuřim clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%
0123450 4.1 6.2 6.1 3.8 1 4.8 9.9 8.7 5.5 2.7 2 3.9 7.0 6.4 4.0 3 3.5 3.2 2.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Velká Bíteš down, Kuřim across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25
Goals a meeting2.75
Over 2.51 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsVEL 1–1 KUR · KUR 2–0 VEL · VEL 1–0 KUR · KUR 2–4 VEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 4. liga - Divizie D this season · since 5 Sept

VELKÁ BÍTEŠ

WDWDWW2–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 6–3 · 4–1

KUŘIM

DLWLWW1–1 · 0–3 · 6–1 · 2–4 · 3–0 · 13–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Sparta Brno11+822
2Tatran Bohunice11+1321
3Velká Bíteš10+821
4FS Třebíč11−220
5Kuřim10+2519
6Havlíčkův Brod10+719
7Sokol Tasovice10+817
8Znojmo10+515
9Pelhřimov11+314
10Bystrc Kníničky11+314
11Chotebor11−1110
12Velké Meziříčí11−1410
13Humpolec10−59
14Ždírec nad Doubravou10−79
15Žďár nad Sázavou10−38
16Bedrichov11−382

The competition's standings before kick-off.